Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 050547 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1247 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain chilly through the weekend, but only a few stray snow showers are expected. Temperatures are expected to finally moderate for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 1235 AM EST, still quite breezy across the region, with partly/mostly cloudy skies, with less clouds across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Clouds are moving southward on the southern periphery of the upper level low, as diffuse upper energy drops south. Some flurries/light snow showers may be ongoing across higher terrain areas of the southern Greens, Berkshires, and Taconics, as well as portions of the eastern Catskills. Expect areas of clouds/flurries to persist for another several hours, with some clearing potentially developing closer to sunrise within the Hudson River Valley. Northwest winds will remain brisk through daybreak, with speeds of 10-20 mph in most areas, with some gusts up to 30 mph possible within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. There could be some localized pockets of lighter winds developing toward daybreak across the southern Adirondacks, and portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Low temperatures around daybreak mostly in the single digits and teens, although could fall close to zero across portions of the southern Adirondacks, especially within any sheltered valleys where winds may become lighter. Wind chills could drop as low as -15 to -19 F across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks, and between 5 above and 10 below elsewhere through daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper cut off low in SE Canada will continue to be nearly stationary and sources of guidance/ensembles are trying to resolve additional pieces of upper energy rotating around the upper low that track south into our region, then rotate through and exit, with varying opinions on the timing. The general consensus is for one upper impulse to exit by midday Friday, with another upper impulse dropping south again Friday evening and night. This upper energy should support more clouds and isolated to scattered snow shower activity, mainly in the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley, as mean low layer flow through the boundary layer is northwest to north northwest. So, lake effect moisture should be confined to those areas. Highs Friday with continued breezy conditions in the 20s to lower 30s with upper teens to around 20 northern areas. Upper trough associated with the upper cut off low in SE Canada amplifies a bit through Saturday with reinforcing cold air across our region. Intervals of clouds and sun continue but the winds should be less gusty. Highs in the 20s to lower 30s with mid teens to around 20 northern areas. By Sunday, the upper low and upper troughing just begin to lift north and east as boundary layer temperatures just begin to warm. There should be increasing sunshine as well. Highs in the lower to mid 30s with mid to upper 20s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overall, tranquil weather is expected through the period. Warmer temperatures expected as we get into next week as upper-level troughing over the region is replaced with upper-level ridging for at least the first half of next week. A cold front may approach from the west towards the end of the period, bringing the chance for showers Wednesday night into Thursday. We begin the period Sunday night under the influence of an upper- level trough and chilly temperatures. A 1032 mb high is expected to build into the region Sunday night in association with an upper- level ridge approaching from the west. Given the relatively weak pressure gradient and clear skies, expecting favorable conditions for radiational cooling with temperatures expected to drop into the single digits to near zero in the southern Adirondacks and single digits and teens elsewhere across the region. The 500 mb ridge is expected to move overhead Monday. The influence of this ridge combined with that of surface high pressure should allow for quiet weather and clear skies through most of the day. Warm air advection and clear skies should allow for high temperatures 5-10F warmer than those on Sunday, with mid 30s to mid 40s expected across the region. Some clouds are expected Monday evening into Monday night in advance of an approaching 500 mb shortwave. This shortwave could lead to a few isolated snow showers across the southern Adirondacks Monday night into early Tuesday morning, especially in the W/NW flow upslope favored areas. However, given that this shortwave and the associated surface low are expected to pass well to our north, expecting weak forcing for ascent and therefore mainly dry conditions across the region otherwise. We are once again expected to be under the influence of high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday as heights continue to rise Tuesday into Wednesday with the shortwave departing to the north and east. This should allow for high temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday. GFS MOS suggests high temperatures getting into the 50s in portions of the Mid Hudson Valley Tuesday, although NBM MOS keeps temperatures in the 40s. Considering that the GFS has support from the Euro and CMC, have decided to lean warmer with high temperatures in the 50s for the Mid Hudson valley and 40s elsewhere, except in the higher terrain where temperatures may stay in the 30s. Temperatures look to be even more spring-like next Wednesday, as we will be directly under the upper-level ridge. The surface high slides off the East Coast, resulting in southwesterly low-level winds and continued warm air advection into the region. Models are in good agreement that temperatures should climb into the 40s and 50s across the region, with the lower elevations of the valleys potentially reaching the low 60s. A cold front is expected to approach from the west near the end of the period, but there is some uncertainty with regards to the timing of this feature. The GFS is more progressive as usual, bringing a chance for showers for Wednesday night and Thursday. The Euro is slower with the progression of this front, and keeps us dry through most of the day Thursday. Have therefore decided to compromise and include a chance for showers late Wednesday night into Thursday. The progression of this front will largely determine our weather for Thursday. A slower progression of the front would allow for temperatures in the low 60s Thursday for may of the valley locations, while a more GFS-like solution with showers and increased cloud cover would keep temperatures mainly in upper 40s to upper 50s. Regardless, there will be plenty of time to sort out the details over the next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper cut off low over southeast Canada will slowly retrograde with short wave rotating about it. The short waves will bring clouds to the area with a decrease between impulses. West-northwest winds will remain brisk and gusty. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend. During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by later in the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Main/NAS AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...NAS

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