Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 281145 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 645 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... The next system will move across the region later today through tonight with scattered rain showers and perhaps a wintry mix across some higher terrain areas. A strong cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and evening and advect in a much colder air mass along with strong winds and scattered snow showers and squalls. Blustery and cold conditions are expected on Tuesday as an area of high pressure builds into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM EST...No major changes to the current forecast. Main change was to update temperatures based on the latest trends. Pops may need to be reduced or delayed even further for this afternoon and evening based on some of the latest model guidance, but will refer to later updates to make any further adjustments. High pressure will depart to our east this morning as the next system approaches our area from the south and west. This system is split into two parts. The first part is a wave of low pressure tracking eastward across the mid-Atlantic. The second part is an area of low pressure lifting northeastward from the Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay which lifts a mid-level warm front across the region this afternoon and evening and then sends a weak cold front across our region Monday morning. Today will start out mostly cloudy and dry. Precipitation will begin to break out during the afternoon and evening hours. The best areas for some precipitation will be across the mid-Hudson Valley into the Litchfield Hills (from the mid-Atlantic low) and then across the Adirondacks (from the Great Lakes low). Activity elsewhere should be fairly limited with much of the afternoon and evening likely being dry. Precipitation will be mostly all rain; however, forecast soundings suggest some light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible across the higher elevations of the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks and southern Greens for a time with air temperatures hovering near or just below freezing. Any ice accumulations will be generally a light glaze. Coverage looks rather localized so will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas and issue Special Weather Statements for slick travel, if necessary. During Sunday night, additional showers are possible in advance of the front. Air temperatures will remain or rise above freezing in all locations. Toward daybreak, some cooler air will begin to reach the southern Adirondacks where some snow showers may mix in with the rain prior to daybreak. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain to the lower 40s in the valleys. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The weak cold front will push to the east early Monday with showers gradually coming to an end. In its wake, a stronger cold front will push across the region during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will increase slightly in the morning (especially along and east of the Hudson Valley) before falling behind the front. Strong low- level lapse rates and weak instability will develop ahead and just behind the front. As moisture gets picked up from the Great Lakes, isolated to scattered snow showers and squalls will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. Any heavier snow shower or squall could greatly reduce visibility and produce a quick coating to an inch or so of snow. As drier air moves in later Monday night, the snow shower activity will end. Behind the front, winds will pick up out of the west to northwest Monday afternoon through Monday night with gusts 35 to 45 mph possible. Wind headlines may be needed if confidence increases on this wind potential. Low temperatures Monday night will bottom out to near or below zero in the Adirondacks to the mid-teens in the mid-Hudson Valley. Wind chills early Tuesday morning will be as low as 15 to 25 degrees below zero across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens and around 0 to 15 below elsewhere. High pressure will gradually move into the region on Tuesday with sunshine, but it will be quite cold with 850 hPa temperatures between -15 to -25 C (2 to 3 standard deviations below normal). High temperatures will only reach the teens across the higher terrain to the 20s to lower 30s elsewhere (about 10 to 15 degrees below normal). It will remain windy with wind gusts 35 to 45 mph possible and will lead to wind chill values only reaching the single digits and teens for most areas. Wind will gradually lessen during the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended forecast begins with temps returning to above normal readings for the mid-week. However, a cold front moving through Thursday will allow temps to trend back below normal into next weekend as mean mid and upper level trough becomes established over the Northeast and eastern Canada. Tue night into Wed...High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night with a split mid and upper level flow pattern impacting the Northeast. A southern stream cyclone will be ejecting out of the lower MS River Valley and moving towards the lower Mid Atlantic States. A northern stream disturbance passes across southeast Ontario and into northern New England Tue night into Wed. Some clouds may increase on Wed, but after a cold morning with lows in the single digits over the southern Dacks, and southern Greens, and teens over the rest of the region. Highs on Wed with sunshine mixing with a few clouds will be in the lower to mid 40s with a few upper 40s in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, and 30s over the higher terrain. Wed night into Thu...Low pressure passes well south of the region into the Atlantic. The mid and upper level long wave trough begins to amplify over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will be approaching the St Lawrence Valley and the the Great Lakes Region by THU morning. Some mid and high clouds may increase from the north and west. Lows will be in the 20s. The cold front dips southward across the region with very little low-level moisture to work. Some lake enhanced light snow/rain showers will be possible west of the Hudson River Valley. Highs on THU are near normal based on the NBM with upper 30s to lower 40s across the valleys (a few mid 40s near KPOU) and hills with upper 20s to upper 30s over the mtns. Thu night into Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will prevail over NY and New England with pieces of short-wave energy bringing periods of clouds and some lake effect snow showers or flurries especially north and west of the Capital Region towards the western Adirondacks. Low-level moisture looks sparse, so we kept PoPs slight chance or lower. H850 temps become -1 to -2 STDEVs colder than normal on the 00Z GEFS over the forecast area THU night into FRI. The actual temps may plummet to -20C to -25C. Lows Thu and Fri night will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits over the southern Dacks and southern Greens. Highs both days will run below normal with upper teen to 20s over the mtns, and upper 20s to mid 30s in the lower elevations with brisk northwest winds each day. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure briefly builds in over NY and New England this morning. An upper level disturbance and a warm front approaching from the south and west will increase the clouds and bring some light rain to the region late this afternoon into tonight. Patchy mist should dissipate at KPOU between 12Z-14Z and mid and high clouds will increase during the late morning into the afternoon. The best forcing for some light rain to move into the TAF sites will be closer to KPOU/KPSF between 21Z-00Z/MON. The cigs/vsbys will initially lower to MVFR levels, but reductions to IFR levels is possible closer to 00Z/MON at those two sites. Further north clouds thicken and lower and a PROB30 group was used for KALB/KGFL between 00Z/MON and 06Z/MON for some light rain or showers with MVFR conditions. The low-level moisture will increase and expect widespread low MVFR and IFR conditions to impact the TAF sites prior to midnight and last until the end of the TAF cycle. Light rain and drizzle will persist and increase between 06Z-12Z/MON ahead the sfc wave and warm front. The winds will be southeast to south at 4-8 kts in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will continue to be south to southeast at 7 kts or less overnight. The 2 kft AGL winds increase to 35-40 kts in the late afternoon thru the overnight period and LLWS was added to KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL 21Z/SUN to 00Z/MON as the sfc winds will be less than 10 kts. The LLWS will continue until the end of the TAF cycle. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. Scattered SHSN...SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No major hydrologic issues are foreseen through the upcoming week. Some melting and sublimation of the snowpack in the valleys is expected during the day time over the next several days with the exception of Tuesday. NERFC forecasts show minor up and down changes in river flows due to the diurnal freeze/thaw cycle. River ice is not expected to break up over the next several days. The next system will track across the area later today into early Monday with mainly rain. Total QPF for this system will range from 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch. A strong cold front with snow showers is expected to move through the area Monday afternoon through Monday night. Much colder air returns Monday night and Tuesday. Mainly dry weather is then expected for the remainder of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula HYDROLOGY...Rathbun

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