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FXUS61 KALY 081421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
921 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair and dry weather today
with temperatures slightly below normal.  A weak disturbance moves
across the region tonight with an increase of clouds and isolated
snow showers or a very light mix of precipitation mainly over the
higher terrain north and west of the Capital Region.  Temperatures
rise above normal Tuesday through the mid week with high pressure
back in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
As of 920 am EST, forecast is on track with no changes needed.

PREV DISCUSSION [0630 AM EST]...A very cold morning across the
forecast area with temps zero to 16 below zero across the
southern Dacks and southern Greens, and single digits to teens
as high pressure builds in over the area with clear skies and
light to calm winds. Old Forge is down to 16 below zero in the
on the NYS Mesonet this hour. The snow pack/depth is still 21"
at Old Forge and 27" at Cold Brook based on the NYS Mesonet.

High pressure will be over NY and New England today as the pesky
mid and upper level trough has moved downstream of the region.
The sfc anticyclone will continue to produce mostly sunny to
sunny conditions due to the strong subsidence. Mid and upper
level heights will continue to rise over the Northeast. Some
mid and high clouds will increase from the north and west late
in the day associated with a quick moving wave moving across the
Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario. Mixing heights will be
shallow and temps will still struggle to reach early March
normal levels. We favored highs close to the ECM MOS with mid
and upper 30s in the lower elevations with a few 40F readings in
the mid Hudson Valley, and upper 20s to mid 30s over the hills
and mtns. The winds will be light and variable in direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...The weak sfc wave and its warm front move towards and
across the forecast area. The low and mid level warm advection
increases, but the depth of the low-level moisture is paltry.
Only scant amounts of QPF will likely be squeezed out of the
system with the best chance of a light snow shower or a
transition to spotty light snow, freezing drizzle or drizzle
over the higher terrain north and west of the Capital Region.
The clouds may loose their ice and with some temps rising and
still below 32F that is why there is a slight or low chance of
spotty freezing drizzle. The locations with a slight or very low
chance will be the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley,
northern Catskills, and southern Greens. We will address any
pockets of light freezing drizzle in the future with an
SPS...if needed. Most locations will see an increase of clouds
with the moisture starved system, and temps will likely rise
overnight with mins occurring in the early evening prior to
midnight. That is why some of the spotty light precip maybe
light patchy plain drizzle. Lows will be early in the 20s to
lower 30s with some upper teens over the southern Greens and
Dacks. Temps will rise overnight into the mid 20s to mid 30s by
daybreak. The winds will pick up from the south at 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...The cold front to system moves through in the morning
with any patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow ending. Low-level
cold advection commences as west to northwest winds increase to
10-15+ mph. The skies will become partly to mostly sunny in the
wake of the front. Good mixing from aloft and downsloping off
the eastern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and Helderbergs
should aid in locations in the Hudson River Valley to surge
close to 10 degrees above normal. Highs in the valleys will
range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few spotty mid 50s may
occur in the mid Hudson Valley. The higher terrain will range
from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday Night...Mid and upper level heights once again increase
over the Northeast and southeast Canada. A 1032 hPa or so
anticyclone settles back over NY and New England with
clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds for near ideal
radiational cooling conditions once again. Expect lows to drop
off into the 20s with some teens over the Adirondack Park and
southern Greens.

Wednesday...The sfc anticyclone moves off the southern New
England Coast, as mid and upper level ridging builds in along
the East Coast. The latest NAEFS indicates above normal heights
and H850 temps rising 1-2+ STDEVs above normal. A southerly flow
in the boundary layer ushers in a mild air mass with temps
rocketing 15+ degrees above normal. These will be warmest max
temps widespread across the region since Christmas Day.
Widespread highs in the lower to upper 50s over the hilltowns
and in the valleys, with mid and upper 40s over the higher
terrain where the snow pack is the deepest and densest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long-term forecast period will consist of a mainly dry weather
pattern with a couple of opportunities for some light precipitation.
The first being Thursday night into Friday and the second coming in
the Monday night-Tuesday of next week timeframe. We`ll see a
downtrend in temperatures going from unseasonably warm (that of mid-
April) to closer to normal levels (maybe even slightly colder than
normal levels).

We start off the extended forecast period with a return flow out of
the southwest in place, a large 1034-1035 mb surface high pressure
system stationed to our east, and an approaching cold front to our
west. The synoptic setup will allow for strong WAA and moisture
advection to take place during the day on Thursday. This will give
way to an unseasonably warm day on Thursday with mid-April like
temperatures developing across eastern New York and western New
England. Clouds will be on the increase through the course of the
day on Thursday. Rain showers will develop northwest of Albany
during the afternoon/evening hours Thursday. Rain will increase in
coverage as it translates eastward Thursday night into Friday. We
dry out Friday afternoon/evening.

A mid to upper trough/shortwave will track east across Ontario
Canada Friday night into Saturday. Because moisture will be limited
and most of the forcing will be well to our north, the area should
remain precipitation-free. Have only included 20% PoPs for
precipitation by Saturday morning. At most, we should have just
clouds over the area during this time period.

Another strong and broad surface high pressure system will move into
the region from the north-central U.S. over the weekend. This high
pressure system will bring dry weather to the region Saturday
through Monday.

We have to keep an eye out for early next week in the Monday night-
Tuesday timeframe. That`s when we could see our next chance for more
widespread precipitation. High pressure shifts east of the area
Monday night into Tuesday with a return southwesterly flow
developing. WAA and moisture advection (isentropic lifting) will
ensue. Clouds will develop and increase in coverage from southwest
to northeast as a storm system off to our west approaches. As
mentioned, this will bring our next best chance for precipitation
Monday night through Tuesday.

Temperatures will start off the period, but will trend cooler
through early next week. Daytime high temperatures will be in the
50s and 60s (mid-Hudson Valley) Thursday. By next Monday, high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 30s and 40s (mid-Hudson
Valley). Low temperatures will start off the extended in the 30s
and 40s before decreasing into the teens and 20s by Sunday
night/Monday morning. Anomalies overall will be warmer than normal
for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 12z TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Clear skies will persist over the next 6 hours or
through the morning hours. Clouds will increase from the west later
this afternoon becoming SCT-BKN over the area as a shortwave trough
approaches and passes to our north. Despite the increase in cloud
coverage, ceilings should remain VFR.

Calm to light winds out of the northwest 5-10 kts will become more
southerly 5-10 kts later this afternoon/evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid
to latter portion of next week.

Cold and dry weather will persist today with little impact on
the waterways. Any decrease in snowpack will be through
sublimation. A weak disturbance and a warm front will bring a
few hundredths of QPF to a few spots Monday night with no impact
on the rivers and streams.

Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above
normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread
showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does
not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week
with a few hundredths to a quarter inch perhaps across northern
basins. Some ripening of the dense snow pack is possible over
the northern mountains. Some river and streams may show a
diurnal fluctuation in flows/hydro traces with snow melt through
the mid to end of the week. However, widespread ice break-up or
hydro issues are not anticipated at this time on the
rivers/streams. The latest MMEFS guidance shows no river points
reaching minor flood stage from snow melt and limited QPF.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...Thompson
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Wasula