Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 081421 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 921 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fair and dry weather today with temperatures slightly below normal. A weak disturbance moves across the region tonight with an increase of clouds and isolated snow showers or a very light mix of precipitation mainly over the higher terrain north and west of the Capital Region. Temperatures rise above normal Tuesday through the mid week with high pressure back in control. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... As of 920 am EST, forecast is on track with no changes needed. PREV DISCUSSION [0630 AM EST]...A very cold morning across the forecast area with temps zero to 16 below zero across the southern Dacks and southern Greens, and single digits to teens as high pressure builds in over the area with clear skies and light to calm winds. Old Forge is down to 16 below zero in the on the NYS Mesonet this hour. The snow pack/depth is still 21" at Old Forge and 27" at Cold Brook based on the NYS Mesonet. High pressure will be over NY and New England today as the pesky mid and upper level trough has moved downstream of the region. The sfc anticyclone will continue to produce mostly sunny to sunny conditions due to the strong subsidence. Mid and upper level heights will continue to rise over the Northeast. Some mid and high clouds will increase from the north and west late in the day associated with a quick moving wave moving across the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario. Mixing heights will be shallow and temps will still struggle to reach early March normal levels. We favored highs close to the ECM MOS with mid and upper 30s in the lower elevations with a few 40F readings in the mid Hudson Valley, and upper 20s to mid 30s over the hills and mtns. The winds will be light and variable in direction. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tonight...The weak sfc wave and its warm front move towards and across the forecast area. The low and mid level warm advection increases, but the depth of the low-level moisture is paltry. Only scant amounts of QPF will likely be squeezed out of the system with the best chance of a light snow shower or a transition to spotty light snow, freezing drizzle or drizzle over the higher terrain north and west of the Capital Region. The clouds may loose their ice and with some temps rising and still below 32F that is why there is a slight or low chance of spotty freezing drizzle. The locations with a slight or very low chance will be the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, northern Catskills, and southern Greens. We will address any pockets of light freezing drizzle in the future with an SPS...if needed. Most locations will see an increase of clouds with the moisture starved system, and temps will likely rise overnight with mins occurring in the early evening prior to midnight. That is why some of the spotty light precip maybe light patchy plain drizzle. Lows will be early in the 20s to lower 30s with some upper teens over the southern Greens and Dacks. Temps will rise overnight into the mid 20s to mid 30s by daybreak. The winds will pick up from the south at 5-10 mph. Tuesday...The cold front to system moves through in the morning with any patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow ending. Low-level cold advection commences as west to northwest winds increase to 10-15+ mph. The skies will become partly to mostly sunny in the wake of the front. Good mixing from aloft and downsloping off the eastern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and Helderbergs should aid in locations in the Hudson River Valley to surge close to 10 degrees above normal. Highs in the valleys will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few spotty mid 50s may occur in the mid Hudson Valley. The higher terrain will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Tuesday Night...Mid and upper level heights once again increase over the Northeast and southeast Canada. A 1032 hPa or so anticyclone settles back over NY and New England with clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds for near ideal radiational cooling conditions once again. Expect lows to drop off into the 20s with some teens over the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. Wednesday...The sfc anticyclone moves off the southern New England Coast, as mid and upper level ridging builds in along the East Coast. The latest NAEFS indicates above normal heights and H850 temps rising 1-2+ STDEVs above normal. A southerly flow in the boundary layer ushers in a mild air mass with temps rocketing 15+ degrees above normal. These will be warmest max temps widespread across the region since Christmas Day. Widespread highs in the lower to upper 50s over the hilltowns and in the valleys, with mid and upper 40s over the higher terrain where the snow pack is the deepest and densest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long-term forecast period will consist of a mainly dry weather pattern with a couple of opportunities for some light precipitation. The first being Thursday night into Friday and the second coming in the Monday night-Tuesday of next week timeframe. We`ll see a downtrend in temperatures going from unseasonably warm (that of mid- April) to closer to normal levels (maybe even slightly colder than normal levels). We start off the extended forecast period with a return flow out of the southwest in place, a large 1034-1035 mb surface high pressure system stationed to our east, and an approaching cold front to our west. The synoptic setup will allow for strong WAA and moisture advection to take place during the day on Thursday. This will give way to an unseasonably warm day on Thursday with mid-April like temperatures developing across eastern New York and western New England. Clouds will be on the increase through the course of the day on Thursday. Rain showers will develop northwest of Albany during the afternoon/evening hours Thursday. Rain will increase in coverage as it translates eastward Thursday night into Friday. We dry out Friday afternoon/evening. A mid to upper trough/shortwave will track east across Ontario Canada Friday night into Saturday. Because moisture will be limited and most of the forcing will be well to our north, the area should remain precipitation-free. Have only included 20% PoPs for precipitation by Saturday morning. At most, we should have just clouds over the area during this time period. Another strong and broad surface high pressure system will move into the region from the north-central U.S. over the weekend. This high pressure system will bring dry weather to the region Saturday through Monday. We have to keep an eye out for early next week in the Monday night- Tuesday timeframe. That`s when we could see our next chance for more widespread precipitation. High pressure shifts east of the area Monday night into Tuesday with a return southwesterly flow developing. WAA and moisture advection (isentropic lifting) will ensue. Clouds will develop and increase in coverage from southwest to northeast as a storm system off to our west approaches. As mentioned, this will bring our next best chance for precipitation Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will start off the period, but will trend cooler through early next week. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s (mid-Hudson Valley) Thursday. By next Monday, high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 30s and 40s (mid-Hudson Valley). Low temperatures will start off the extended in the 30s and 40s before decreasing into the teens and 20s by Sunday night/Monday morning. Anomalies overall will be warmer than normal for the period. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 12z TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Clear skies will persist over the next 6 hours or through the morning hours. Clouds will increase from the west later this afternoon becoming SCT-BKN over the area as a shortwave trough approaches and passes to our north. Despite the increase in cloud coverage, ceilings should remain VFR. Calm to light winds out of the northwest 5-10 kts will become more southerly 5-10 kts later this afternoon/evening. Outlook... Tuesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid to latter portion of next week. Cold and dry weather will persist today with little impact on the waterways. Any decrease in snowpack will be through sublimation. A weak disturbance and a warm front will bring a few hundredths of QPF to a few spots Monday night with no impact on the rivers and streams. Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week with a few hundredths to a quarter inch perhaps across northern basins. Some ripening of the dense snow pack is possible over the northern mountains. Some river and streams may show a diurnal fluctuation in flows/hydro traces with snow melt through the mid to end of the week. However, widespread ice break-up or hydro issues are not anticipated at this time on the rivers/streams. The latest MMEFS guidance shows no river points reaching minor flood stage from snow melt and limited QPF. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE...Thompson SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...Evbuoma HYDROLOGY...Wasula

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