Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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316 FXUS61 KALY 060256 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 956 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably warm temperatures through tomorrow, when record or near- record highs are expected. A cold front arriving from the west will bring scattered rain showers, especially north and west of Albany, but light accumulations will likely fail to make a significant dent in the recent rainfall deficit. Cooler but still above normal temperatures return Thursday through the weekend, with the next best chance for widespread rainfall possible Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 945 PM, just some minor adjustments to temperatures and cloud coverage for this update. Otherwise, forecast is on track. Previous discussion...large scale ridging dominating over the eastern CONUS tonight thanks to a ~595dm ridge positioned off the Southeast coast. With our warm front now well to our north in Quebec and our cold front progressing through the Midwest, the Northeast will remain solidly in the warmly sector tonight and with breezy southerly winds continuing, temperatures will be very mild roughly 20 degrees above normal. Skies remain mainly clear this evening but low stratus clouds look to develop in western New England and the Catskills after Midnight as moisture becomes trapped underneath the low-level inversion.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level troughing approaches from the west on Wednesday, yielding increasing clouds through the afternoon. While a surface low tracks eastward across southern Quebec, its trailing cold front will transit the region from northwest to southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, deep mixing up to 850 hPa will allow for gusty winds of 25-30 mph out of the southwest reach the surface. This will support continued unseasonably warm temperatures, further aided by downslope flow into the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, as afternoon highs reach the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to upper 70s at lower elevations. Daily record highs are possible, most likely at Albany and Poughkeepsie and less likely at Glens Falls. Current daily record highs are listed in the Climate section below. Scattered rain showers along the cold front are most likely from the morning through mid-afternoon in areas north and west of Albany, including the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valleys, and southern Greens. Rainfall accumulations of 0.1 to 0.25 inches are possible in these areas. Elsewhere, a stray shower may produce a few hundredths of an inch of rain, which will do little to address the recent rainfall deficit. Behind the cold front, northwest winds will push temperatures back down toward seasonal norms, although limited cold air upstream and zonal flow aloft will see these cooler temperatures remain nonetheless above normal. Temperatures fall to lows on Wednesday night are in the 40s to low 50s, before rebounding to upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and upper 50s to upper 60s at lower elevations Thursday afternoon. As skies continue to trend clearer through the period, cold overnight lows in the 30s are expected by Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow aloft to begin the period will see heights begin to rise following the passage of an upper-level shortwave on Friday. A few brief rain showers are possible in the southern Adirondacks through the afternoon, while the remainder of the region is expected to be dry. As upper ridging moved overhead, cool surface high pressure from Canada will slide into the Northeast, returning temperatures to more seasonable levels for the weekend. Following afternoon highs in the 50s to mid 60s on Friday, both Saturday and Sunday will instead see temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Cool overnight lows in the 20s and 30s are expected Friday and Saturday nights. A closed upper-level low over the Southern Rockies will open northward into the mean flow over the weekend, tracking over the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of the approaching trough, the best chances for widespread rainfall in the past few weeks look to spread from west to east Sunday into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts will largely depend on the evolution of Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, as guidance remains split on whether southerly flow on the leading edge of upper troughing is able to tap into the tropical moisture reservoir or if said moisture transport is instead cut off well to the south. Regardless, rain showers may continue into Monday before tapering by Monday evening. Above normal temperatures look to persist into next week. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z/Thurs...VFR conditions prevail through at least 06 UTC for all terminals. Then, low stratus look to develop which will likely lead to MVFR ceilings at PSF and perhaps at POU. MVFR cigs look to prevail at PSF from 08 - 15 UTC but included a TEMPO group at POU during the pre-dawn hours. GFL and ALB remain VFR. Any stratus clouds improve to VFR by 12-15 UTC with VFR cigs prevailing the rest of the TAF period. Our weakening cold front tracks northwest to southeast through the terminals late in the TAF period (18 - 00 UTC) but only expecting a few light showers or sprinkles, highest potential at ALB and PSF. Flying conditions will not diminish during any light shower. South to southeasterly winds remain breezy tonight sustained 5-12kts with gusts occasionally up to 15-20kts at times, especially at ALB. With winds at 2kft increasing to 35-45kts from 03 - 12 UTC, LLWS is expected at all terminals through 12-15 UTC. When sfc winds diminish under 5kts, LLWS potential will be highest. LLWS ends by 12-15 UTC as winds at 2kft weaken under 30kts. Meanwhile, sfc winds during this window shift to the southwest and increase up to 5-15kts with gusts up to 20-25kts. Winds remain breezy through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... The last two months have been very dry across the region. Rainfall has averaged 4 to 8 inches below normal across much of the area since September 1st, with the largest deficits across southeastern areas. State fire partners have relayed that fine fuels are very dry and there have been reports of brush fires throughout the region. Little precipitation is expected through tonight with a cold front bringing scattered light showers on Wednesday, especially north and west of Albany. While warmer and breezy conditions are expected on today and Wednesday, RH values look to be elevated above 50 percent. Wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph are possible across some areas, particularly in higher terrain, both today and Wednesday. In coordination with NWS Boston and New York City forecast offices and fire weather partners in Massachusetts and Connecticut, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Berkshire and Litchfield Counties from 8 AM to 6 PM Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for November 6: Albany: 73F (2015) Glens Falls: 75F (1948) Poughkeepsie: 77F (2015) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for CTZ001- 013. NY...None. MA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for MAZ001- 025. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard/Speciale SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Speciale FIRE WEATHER...JPV/Rathbun CLIMATE...Gant