Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 071736 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 136 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low near northern New England will continue to bring unsettled weather today into Friday with intermittent showers. Temperatures will run cooler than normal prior to the weekend. High pressure will build in with a warming trend on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS of 1030 AM...Overall forecast is in good shape. Did add definite haze along with areas of smoke to the forecast for where Air Quality Alerts are in effect. A cut-off low will continue to be situated over Northern New England and Maine today. Spokes of short-wave energy rotating around the low will bring isolated to scattered showers during the day. The coverage of the showers will tend to be more from the Capital Region and the Berkshires north and east. The mid Hudson Valley and NW CT may miss out on the showers. Expecting clouds to mix with sunshine. More sunny intervals will likely be from Albany south and east. It will be cool with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain and upper 60s to lower to mid 70s in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight...the showers will decrease with the loss of the diurnal heating. Some scatted showers may linger the longest over the Mohawk Valley and southern Dacks. Lows will be on the cool side with 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible over the eastern Catskills. Thursday the cutoff retrogrades slightly further westward over northern VT/NH and possibly northern NY. CSTAR warm season research has documented patterns of cut-off lows with the associated sensible weather. It looks like some isolated thunderstorms may pop-up again similar to TUE. However, the instability and heating looks less. Pea-size to M&M size hail may be possible with low amounts of instability and weak shear combined with steep mid level lapse rates. Highs will run below normal with mid and upper 60s in the valleys, and 50s to lower 60s over the hills and mtns. Thursday night into Friday...More of the same with a monotonous pattern with the cut-off starting to wobble eastward. The cyclonic vorticity advection ramps up with spokes of energy wrapping around the low and tapping into the chilly air aloft. Isolated to scattered showers will increase towards day break and may become numerous in the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. Coverage may be tricky on Fri based on some of the guidance. The thunderstorm threat was kept in from the Capital Region south and west. Lows will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Highs on Friday will still run 5-10 degrees below normal with upper 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long-term forecast period continues to feature unsettled weather. We start off the period Friday evening with a closed mid- upper low slowly shifting/departing to our east. Shortwaves/impulses riding long the western periphery of this low will help to trigger some diurnal showers on Saturday and Sunday. Not looking like a total washout as there should be plenty of dry hours over the area both days. Early to mid week, global forecast models and ensembles are advertising a storm system tracking into the area from the central U.S. that could bring the area it`s next chance for a more widespread rainfall. There are some signs that this storm system could become occluded, slow over the area, and/or maybe even become closed off which will give way to day-to-day chances for showers Monday through Wednesday. Given the uncertainty in the evolution and timing of everything, have just chance PoPs in the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Temperature anomalies are expected to continue below normal through the period thanks to the mid-upper trough that will be in place. High temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70s with a few upper 70s along the river valleys during this long-term period. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Areas of smoke/haze will continue to affect the TAF sites through at least sunset, with the greatest concentration and reduced Vsbys at KPOU and KALB, where mainly IFR Vsbys are expected. Cigs should vary between MVFR and VFR. Vsbys may be slightly greater at KPSF and especially KGFL, where VFR/MVFR Vsbys may hold this afternoon. Isolated rain showers may affect the TAF sites later this afternoon, especially KGFL. However, better chances for showers are expected late tonight into Thursday, spreading from north to south. Occasional MVFR conditions may accompany these showers, with MVFR Vsbys also possible outside these showers at KPSF and KPOU due to lingering smoke/haze. Cigs may also drop to MVFR within any showers. On Tuesday, scattered showers will continue to move southward across the region, with at least occasional MVFR Cigs/Vsbys possible. Smoke/haze may be a bit less concentrated than today, although may still lead to MVFR Vsbys outside of any showers at KPOU. Winds will be west/northwest at 5-10 KT this afternoon, trending to light/variable tonight, then north to northwest at 4-8 KT on Thursday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...KL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.