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017
FXUS61 KALY 141822
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
222 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon give way to
largely dry, but hot and humid conditions tomorrow and
Wednesday. Oppressive heat continues into Thursday with an
unsettled pattern setting in for the remainder of the work week.
The weekend will then bring cooler, more comfortable conditions
with a dry Saturday yielding to additional chances for showers
and some thunderstorms Sunday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today for most areas
  south and east of I-90 with strong to locally damaging wind
  gusts the primary threat.

- Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today for
  similar areas with slow moving storms and embedded heavy
  downpours posing a flash flood threat.

- Hot, humid conditions return for the middle of the week with
  Heat Advisories likely Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Discussion:
A slow moving cold front continues to sink south and east
farther into northern New York as its parent surface low slowly
tracks eastward from the Hudson Bay area overhead. Meanwhile,
latest water vapor imagery shows broad troughing aloft with an
embedded shortwave within the mean flow digging south and east
into the Ohio Valley and western Mid- Atlantic. Breaks of sun
and predominant moist, southerly flow across the region ahead of
the cold front and upper-level disturbance have ensured the ease
of destabilization with latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicating about
1500 to 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and similar MLCAPE. Though there
continue to be run to run differences in the latest CAMs of
their depiction of this afternoon`s convection, the general
consensus continues to place areas within, south, and east of
the Capital District as having the greatest threat of both
isolated severe thunderstorms and isolated to scattered
flooding.

Today`s convection fosters two primary threats: heavy downpours
leading to potential urban/poor drainage flooding and/or
isolated flash flooding and strong to locally damaging wind
gusts. Forecast soundings in the aforementioned areas show very
moist, buoyant profiles with tall, skinny CAPE profiles hinting
at the elevated threat for heavy downpours and subsequent
threat for localized ponding of water in urban and poor drainage
areas. Additionally, very slow flow that is more or less
parallel to the incoming boundary supports training and/or back-
building storms which will only act to increase the minor
flooding and potential isolated flash flood threat in these
areas. Working against the flood threat, however, is the higher
flash flood guidance resulting from recent dry conditions.
Additional details to follow in the Hydrology Discussion below.
The wind threat for today, though present, is rather marginal.
The incoming boundary is somewhat diffuse, significantly
limiting its resultant cold air advection and subsequent rapid
dry air entrainment and strengthening of the low-level pressure
gradient. Additionally, DCAPE values are only looking to range
from about 500-700 J/kg at most which may not be enough on its
own without strong forcing to generate a severe gusts. This is
especially true considering the low shear present throughout
this environment which should mitigate storm organization.
However, wet microbursts, with significant precipitation loading
(PWATs around 1.8" to 2"), will certainly be possible in the
aforementioned areas as well.

Convection begins to taper off as we lose daytime heating
tonight, yielding some lighter showers through late tonight as
the boundary slowly continues to sink farther south and east and
the shortwave aloft begins to depart. By morning, dry conditions
will be reinforced regionwide, despite the lingering boundary
in and around the lower Mid-Hudson Valley/southwest New England,
as surface high pressure slides eastward and heights aloft begin
to rise slightly. Very warm, humid conditions will be in place
tomorrow with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the
lower Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County where the boundary
will remain stationary. Despite highs in the 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 70s, have held off on any
issuance of Heat Advisories for tomorrow as deep mixing and
downsloping from westerly flow is expected to limit the extent
of humidity tomorrow. The same will likely not be able to be
said soon for Wednesday, as further amplification in the ridge
aloft and high at the surface will drive temperatures a few
degrees warmer than Tuesday and southwesterly flow will increase
our moisture content. Heat Advisories will likely be issued
in the near future with heat indices looking to reach the upper
90s to low 100s.

Most of the day Wednesday will likely be dry, though the chances
for showers and isolated thunderstorms increase again beginning
late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from south to
north as the aforementioned stalled boundary begins to lift
north as a warm front. Additional scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms will remain possible through Thursday as a pre-
frontal trough tracks through the region with hot, humid
conditions continuing. Heat indices Thursday will be similar to
Wednesday, so Heat Advisories are also likely in the near future
for this day as well.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered showers linger into Thursday night before dry
conditions once again briefly take hold of the region through
Friday morning. The chance for thunderstorms then comes Friday
as a surface low forms along an incoming cold frontal boundary
to our north and west beneath a deepening shortwave trough
aloft. The extent of thunderstorms will highly depend on timing
of the front, but with an earlier progression like what the
guidance is currently showing, thunder may be limited. Will
continue to monitor this system as lead time decreases. However,
what`s certain is that cooler, more comfortable conditions will
follow this cold front Saturday into Sunday as much drier and
cooler air is ushered into the region. And, as high pressure
takes hold of the region Saturday, it will certainly be the best
weather day of the seven-day period as Sunday follows with more
unsettled conditions.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18z Tuesday...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA developing
this afternoon, with the greatest coverage in the KPOU vicinity and
less coverage farther north at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Will continue to
mention PROB30 for scattered coverage and TEMPO at KPOU for
numerous. Any SHRA/TSRA should quickly lower conditions to at least
MVFR levels, with brief IFR possible. Any sites that receive
appreciable rainfall from the convection will have a good chance of
fog developing. Even in the absence of SHRA/TSRA, KGFL/KPSF could
still see occasional fog with borderline MVFR/IFR conditions
overnight into early Tuesday morning. All sites should improve to
VFR after 13z Tuesday with high pressure building in. Winds will be
southerly around 5-7 kt becoming variable less than 5 kt tonight.
Any TSRA could produce wind gusts to around 30 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Coverage of rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours
increases this afternoon, mainly from the Capital District
south and east. WPC has maintained their slight risk ERO for
this area, and we have maintained the flood watch for portions
of the Mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, Taconics, and
western CT/MA from through 06z tonight. Very deep warm clouds,
PWATs potentially in excess of 2" (which is 2-3 standard
deviations above normal) will promote the potential for very
heavy rainfall rates in excess of 2" per hour with any afternoon
showers and storms. Mid-level flow looks relative slow, and the
flow will be parallel to the approaching frontal boundary so we
may have some backbuilding and/or training of convection this
afternoon. The 12z HREF has a 10-30% chance for 3" of rain in
3hrs for areas within, south, and east of the Capital District,
which is often a good signal for an elevated flash flood
threat. Relatively dry conditions over the last 3 days may help
mitigate the flash flood threat somewhat. In fact, latest Flash
Flood Guidance generally shows about 2.5" to 3" need to fall in
these areas over three hours for any flash flooding to occur. Nevertheless,
the threat will be greatest for the more urban areas, as well
as poor- drainage and low- lying areas.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ058>061-063>066.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038.
MA...Flood Watch through late tonight for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant/Main
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...Main/Gant