Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 240217 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1017 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Another mild night ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the region late at night and Saturday morning bringing some showers to the area, mainly to areas north and west of the Capital District. With the passage of the front, a cooler and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in with temperatures falling Saturday afternoon. Dry and chilly conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The start of the new week will be unsettled with some wet snow possible for the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains early Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 1000 PM EDT...Our 00Z sounding was quite dry which should aid with the upstream weakening trend of convection as it approaches. Otherwise, nighttime GOES imagery continues to show the stratus in place and slowly expanding across western New England and pockets across eastern NY. As dewpoint depressions are narrowing, these pockets should expand further overnight. So main update was to sky coverage as PoPs/Wx grids look at the present time. Prev Disc... Mild night with a cold front on the approach from west and deep southwest flow across the region. Lows will only drop down into the 50s which is around normal levels for daytime highs for late October. Stratus is expected to develop again across the area this evening with limited fog with a southerly flow persisting through the night. Winds will continue to be gusty into the early evening. The cold front is expected to move into the northwestern portion of the forecast area by sunrise Saturday. Showers will occur ahead of the boundary late tonight to the west and north of the Capital District with light QPF amounts. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers will diminish in coverage as the front moves across the area through the morning as the upper level support weakens as the short wave passes well to our northwest with ridging holding on just off the east coast. With the passage of the front cold air advection will occur and temperatures will fall through the afternoon. Highs for the day will range from the upper 40s across the western Adirondacks to the mid 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley. Chilly night Saturday night as temperatures drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s with high pressure building in. Light northerly flow Sunday as the center of a surface high passes to our north. Going to feel cold compared to recent days with highs only in the 40s to lower 50s with some 30s across the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Weather turns unsettled as we close out the weekend and head into next week. A short wave moving in across the Pacific Northwest will dig a trough across the western and central CONUS with deep southwest flow developing across our region. Waves of low pressure will move along a boundary bringing rounds of precipitation to the area beginning late Sunday night through Monday and beyond. Of note is the chances for some accumulating wet snow across portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountain late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the precipitation overspreads the region. Temperatures will rise and plain rain is then expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will begin with a frontal boundary still draped across our region. As the first wave of low pressure departs, a secondary low looks to approach and move across our area from Monday night through Tuesday with another period of rain. It is possible enough cold air may lead to a brief period of light snow for the highest elevations in the Adirondacks late Monday night into early Tuesday morning and also Tuesday night, but little or no additional accumulation is anticipated. This front will drop to our south for Wednesday and Thursday as most of this time should be dry as we will be in-between northern and southern stream energy and surface high pressure attempts to build. Unsettled weather may return to our region on Friday as a northern stream upper-level shortwave and southern stream upper-level low interact. As with upper-level lows, timing and tracking these features, especially more than a few days out, is difficult and model guidance has various solutions on how it may pan out. A phasing of these systems could bring a more impactful system to our region, while an unphasing will likely not. With it this far out, will go with a blended approach, favoring a less impactful system at this time, but will monitor trends over the coming days. Temperatures during the long term will generally run slightly below normal with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s (except some 30s in the higher elevations, especially on Friday) and lows in the 20s and 30s (except some lower 40s Monday night across the Capital District and mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield, CT). && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Breezy conditions through the the Hudson River Valley as these magnitudes should subside soon. The main aviation concern is the expanding area of MVFR stratus. These conditions were already impacting KPOU and just on the doorstep of KPSF and KGFL. Expectations are for this stratus to expand and advect across the TAF sites overnight with the best chances for IFR/LIFR conditions at KPSF (mainly after midnight). These conditions will be mainly for Cigs, although some MVFR Vsbys can not be ruled out, especially at KPSF. A cold front will pass across the TAF sites Saturday morning, with most likely time of passage roughly between 13Z-15Z/Sat at KGFL and KALB, and 14Z-17Z/Sat at KPSF and KPOU. Some passing light showers/sprinkles will be possible with and just ahead of the front, which may lower Vsbys into the MVFR range. Cigs are expected to gradually lift to VFR toward and especially after 18Z/Sat. We will leave in a PROB30 for KGFL-KALB-KPSF during these aforementioned windows. On Saturday, south/southwest winds will shift into the west/northwest as the front passes and increase to 8-12 KT, with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible (especially at KALB and KPSF). Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... The cold front will cross the region late at night and Saturday morning bringing some showers to the area, mainly to areas north and west of the Capital District. With the passage of the front, a cooler and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in. Dry and chilly conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The start of the new week will be unsettled with some wet snow possible for the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains early Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread or significant hydro problems are expected through the next 7 days. The cold front will cross the region late at night and Saturday morning bringing some showers to the area, mainly to areas north and west of the Capital District. QPF amounts will be very light. Drier and cooler conditions are forecast Saturday night through Sunday. Then additional bouts of rain are expected Sunday night through the middle of next week, as a series of low pressure systems moves across the region. Appreciable rainfall could occur for areas north and west of the Capital District, although antecedent dry conditions should preclude any flooding. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...KL/BGM FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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