-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 071736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low near northern New England will
continue to bring unsettled weather today into Friday with
intermittent showers.  Temperatures will run cooler than normal
prior to the weekend. High pressure will build in with a warming
trend on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS of 1030 AM...Overall forecast is in good shape. Did add
definite haze along with areas of smoke to the forecast for
where Air Quality Alerts are in effect.

A cut-off low will continue to be situated over Northern New
England and Maine today. Spokes of short-wave energy rotating
around the low will bring isolated to scattered showers during
the day. The coverage of the showers will tend to be more from
the Capital Region and the Berkshires north and east. The mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT may miss out on the showers.

Expecting clouds to mix with sunshine. More sunny intervals
will likely be from Albany south and east. It will be cool with
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain and
upper 60s to lower to mid 70s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight...the showers will decrease with the loss of the diurnal
heating. Some scatted showers may linger the longest over the
Mohawk Valley and southern Dacks. Lows will be on the cool side
with 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible over the eastern
Catskills.

Thursday the cutoff retrogrades slightly further westward over
northern VT/NH and possibly northern NY. CSTAR warm season
research has documented patterns of cut-off lows with the
associated sensible weather. It looks like some isolated
thunderstorms may pop-up again similar to TUE. However, the
instability and heating looks less. Pea-size to M&M size hail
may be possible with low amounts of instability and weak shear
combined with steep mid level lapse rates. Highs will run below
normal with mid and upper 60s in the valleys, and 50s to lower
60s over the hills and mtns.

Thursday night into Friday...More of the same with a monotonous
pattern with the cut-off starting to wobble eastward. The
cyclonic vorticity advection ramps up with spokes of energy
wrapping around the low and tapping into the chilly air aloft.
Isolated to scattered showers will increase towards day break
and may become numerous in the afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms. Coverage may be tricky on Fri based on some of
the guidance. The thunderstorm threat was kept in from the
Capital Region south and west. Lows will be in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. Highs on Friday will still run 5-10 degrees below
normal with upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long-term forecast period continues to feature unsettled
weather. We start off the period Friday evening with a closed mid-
upper low slowly shifting/departing to our east. Shortwaves/impulses
riding long the western periphery of this low will help to trigger
some diurnal showers on Saturday and Sunday. Not looking like a
total washout as there should be plenty of dry hours over the area
both days.

Early to mid week, global forecast models and ensembles are
advertising a storm system tracking into the area from the central
U.S. that could bring the area it`s next chance for a more
widespread rainfall. There are some signs that this storm system
could become occluded, slow over the area, and/or maybe even become
closed off which will give way to day-to-day chances for showers
Monday through Wednesday. Given the uncertainty in the evolution and
timing of everything, have just chance PoPs in the Monday through
Wednesday timeframe.

Temperature anomalies are expected to continue below normal through
the period thanks to the mid-upper trough that will be in place.
High temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70s with a few
upper 70s along the river valleys during this long-term period.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Areas of smoke/haze will continue to affect the TAF sites
through at least sunset, with the greatest concentration and
reduced Vsbys at KPOU and KALB, where mainly IFR Vsbys are
expected. Cigs should vary between MVFR and VFR. Vsbys may be
slightly greater at KPSF and especially KGFL, where VFR/MVFR
Vsbys may hold this afternoon.

Isolated rain showers may affect the TAF sites later this
afternoon, especially KGFL. However, better chances for showers
are expected late tonight into Thursday, spreading from north to
south. Occasional MVFR conditions may accompany these showers,
with MVFR Vsbys also possible outside these showers at KPSF and
KPOU due to lingering smoke/haze. Cigs may also drop to MVFR
within any showers.

On Tuesday, scattered showers will continue to move southward
across the region, with at least occasional MVFR Cigs/Vsbys
possible. Smoke/haze may be a bit less concentrated than today,
although may still lead to MVFR Vsbys outside of any showers at
KPOU.

Winds will be west/northwest at 5-10 KT this afternoon, trending
to light/variable tonight, then north to northwest at 4-8 KT on
Thursday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...KL