Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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794 FXUS61 KALY 242325 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 725 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday afternoon and evening. Some sunshine Sunday with an isolated shower possible. A stronger low pressure system is expected to bring a widespread rainfall on Monday with occasional showers lingering into midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATE...As of 720 PM EDT, outside of some patchy clouds across the SW Adirondacks, skies remain clear. Gusty west/northwest winds continue, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, where some gusts of 30-40 mph persist. Secondary cold front will continue drifting southward this evening, shifting winds into the northwest to north, with decreasing gust magnitudes shortly after sunset. Temperatures will drop rapidly later this evening with clear skies and a very dry air mass in place, along with decreasing winds. [PREVIOUS 352 PM EDT]...Winds will be diminishing tonight, while the sky remains mostly clear with high pressure controlling the weather. The light winds and mostly clear sky will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower to mid 40s southern Adirondacks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Weakening upper energy in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will track through our region with a weakening low level cold front later Saturday afternoon and night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will reach western areas late Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny Saturday morning will become partly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with some mid 80s mid Hudson Valley and mid 70s higher terrain. Any isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should exit by daybreak Sunday and intervals of clouds and sun trending to more sun than clouds through Sunday with perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm in areas of terrain with the weak cold front washing out over our region. Highs Sunday around 80 to mid 80s with upper 70s higher terrain. Strong upper energy begins to approach from the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Rapidly increasing warm advection, moisture advection and low level jet energy will support increasing coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday. Instability should be marginal and low level forcing very broad, so severe thunderstorm potential limited but not out of the question since considerable deep layer shear will be present. Locally heavy rain may be more of a threat but not expecting enough rain for much of a flood threat. Highs Monday around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A brief period of drying Tuesday with the exit of the one upper impulse but another strong upper impulse in Canada dropping through the Great Lakes Tuesday night, slowing its movement as it tracks near or through our region the rest of the week. There is considerable spread in the track and timing of this system that would affect our region Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures would be considerable cooler due to the upper low being overhead, and more clouds than sun, with intervals of showers, mainly during the day when the upper cold pool would contribute to instability. Temperatures Tuesday, with the isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage, in the 70s to around 80 and some upper 60s southern Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday with the potential clouds and rain, around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs Thursday, with continued chances for rain, in the 60s and around 60 higher terrain. Highs Friday, with potentially decreasing coverage of showers, around 70 to mid 70s with mid to upper 60s higher terrain. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 00Z/Sunday, VFR conditions are expected through at least early Saturday afternoon. High/mid level clouds will then increase from west to east Saturday afternoon, with some showers possible after 21Z/Saturday. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder, however enough uncertainty to preclude mention of thunder at this time. Gusty west winds 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT will shift into the northwest to north and quickly decrease to 5-10 KT shortly after sunset, then become light/variable later this evening through Saturday morning. Winds will then become south to southwest at 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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