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000
FXUS61 KALY 251415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mostly sunny, hot and more humid weather is expected over the
weekend with high temperatures in some valley areas reaching the
90s, especially on Sunday. A cold front will bring showers and
a few thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Cooler, drier and
less humid weather returns later Monday into midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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.UPDATE...As of 1015 AM EDT, just some minor tweaks to temps
based on observations and then weather to remove morning fog as
it has burned off. Most of the forecast area is clear at this
time. Temperatures have risen into the 70s to around 80. A
beautiful, warm summer day expected to continue.

Previous Discussion:
The combination of an upper-level ridge and surface high
pressure at the surface will yield a mostly sunny and dry start
to the weekend. 850 hPa temperatures will rise another 2C or so
today compared to yesterday, so this should yield high
temperatures to run about 4 to 6 degrees F higher than on
Friday. This results in values ranging from the upper 70s to
lower 80s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s to around 90
in the valleys. It will not feel too humid today as dewpoints
hover in the mid-50s to around 60, though winds will be on the
light side.

A continued clear sky with light to calm winds will aid in
another good radiational cooling night and as a result, undercut
the NBM numbers a bit, given it will be a similar setup to this
morning, when numbers in many areas went a bit below guidance.
There could be some localized patchy fog but it should be rather
sparse, so will not include in the forecast at this time. Lows
look to dip into the mid to upper 50s across the higher
elevations to the low to mid-60s in the valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will shift to the east on Sunday, though
upper-level ridging will hold strong. Overall, another dry and
hot day is expected with a slight increase in humidity levels
and with a southerly breeze. 850 hPa temperatures increase a bit
more, though the question remains how the low-level winds will
impact temperatures. NBM is on the higher end of guidance with
other MOS members slightly lower. In hot southerly wind regimes
this season, NBM temperatures have been overdone, so we did a
slight decrease in highs compared to the previous forecast. If
the surface winds can get a little more southwesterly component,
then we could rise a bit more, but that is uncertain at this
time. Still, we are looking at highs mainly in the upper 70s to
mid-80s in the valleys to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the
valleys. With the slight lowering in highs, we continue to fall
short of heat advisory levels (which is 95F or above).

A surface cold front will approach from the west late in the day
and through Sunday night. Instability will be on the low side
(500-1000 J/kg) and mainly confined to areas west of the Hudson
River and in the evening hours before waning overnight. Upper-
level support is lacking, however, as the main upper-level
trough will be way back across the upper Great Lakes and with
weak 0-6km shear (less than 30 kt). Still, enough lift ahead of
the front will result in occasional showers and a few
thunderstorms, but not expecting any strong to severe storms.
Precipitable water values will increase Sunday night into the
1.50 to 2.00 inch range, however, and forecast soundings show a
thin, skinny cape and a warm cloud depth, so some heavier
downpours can occur in places. Overall, this will be a much
needed rainfall for many areas with little or no hydrological
issues. With the clouds and showers, lows will only dip into
the upper 50s to upper 60s.

The surface cold front will progress eastward on Monday with
showers and embedded rumbles of thunder gradually ending from
west to east. In its wake, a cooler and drier air mass will
build into the area for the rest of the day and for Monday
night. A westerly breeze will also pick up behind the front with
a few gusts 20-30 mph possible. Highs will only top out in the
mid-60s to upper 70s. It will turn cool Monday night with lows
in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement with a broad upper level ridge across the
southern tier of the CONUS through the period with flattening fast
flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. While at the
surface, high pressure is expected to dominate across the
region much of the week resulting in fair weather Tuesday
through Thursday. A cold front is expected to be on the approach
from the Great Lakes Region Friday bringing our next chances
for some rain to the area as the Hudson`s Bay upper low shifts
southward.

Temperatures will warm as the week progresses. Seasonable
readings are expected by Wednesday with above normal readings
developing to close out the work week. Highs Friday are
anticipated to be in the 80s with some lower 90s possible up the
Hudson River Valley with mid and upper 70s limited above 1500
feet. Nights will become milder and more humid as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z/Sunday...Any remaining fog will lift and burn off
quickly early this morning. Mainly clear skies and very light
winds expected today as ridging dominates at the surface and
aloft. Conditions will once again become favorable for the
development of radiational fog tonight under clear skies with
calm winds as temperatures cool. Fog is expected to occur at
KGFL and KPSF by around 05Z, at KPOU by around 08Z and it is
not expected to form at KALB. Conditions will begin to improve
by around 11Z/Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry and hot weather is expected for the majority of the
weekend. A passing cold front will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. Drier air returns on
Tuesday.

RH values will lower to 35 to 50 percent percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoon, with nighttime recovery to 90-100 percent.

Winds will be generally less than 10 mph today, then become
southerly Sunday at 10-20 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry and hot weather is expected this weekend, then a cold
front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the area
from late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75
of an inch will be common with perhaps a few localized higher
amounts. Overall, we are expecting little to no hydrological
issues with this rainfall with only minor river responses.
Mainly dry weather will follow on Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...SND/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun