-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 230603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the region from the
southwest tonight through Thursday, bringing fair conditions and a
warming trend with temperatures. Below normal temperatures are
expected through Wednesday, warming closer to normal for Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 138 AM EDT...IR satellite imagery shows that the back
edge of widespread cloud cover is now located over western New
England. This will continue to move eastward overnight, allowing
for clearing to finally occur across these eastern areas that
have remained fairly cloudy. Elsewhere, skies are already mainly
clear, although some patchy lower clouds are occurring over
parts of the Adirondacks.

Through the late night hours, skies will be clear/mostly clear
with just some patchy stratocu in some northern/western areas.
With light/calm winds in place, temps will continue to steadily
fall through sunrise. Most places will have lows in the mid to
upper 40s, although some upper 30s to low 40s are possible for
the high terrain of the Adirondacks and Catskills. Although this
is below normal for late June, temps should remain just warm
enough to avoid any frost formation. Some patchy fog may form in
some river valley areas, especially across the Adirondacks and
into southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough and attendant mid/upper level cold pool across
the Great Lakes gradually lifts northeastward during Wednesday.
The cold air aloft may allow some clouds to develop late
Wednesday morning into the afternoon for areas mainly north of
I-90. In fact, can not rule out an isolated shower/sprinkle
across some higher terrain areas across the southern Adirondacks
and southern VT, however overall coverage should be very
limited. Otherwise, more sunshine is expected in valley areas,
and most areas south of I-90. Max temps should reach 70-75 in
valleys, and 60s for most higher terrain areas. West/northwest
winds may gust up to 20-25 mph in portions of the Mohawk
Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires in the late afternoon
during peak mixing.

Cool again for Wednesday night, with mainly clear skies and low
temps mainly in the 40s except for some upper 30s across
portions of the SW Adirondacks. Patchy fog could form within
some river valleys.

Mostly sunny and slightly warmer for Thursday, with highs 75-80
in valleys and 70-75 for most higher elevations. Mainly clear
and slightly milder for Thursday night, with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the first full weekend of summer 2021, it does appear more
summer-like weather is in the forecast.  Of interest remains the
building north Atlantic ridge (some discrepancy on placement per the
global models) which attempts to retrograde through the long term
period.  As per previous couple of discussions, both entrainment of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic will converge across
the eastern third of the CONUS.  Warmer and more humid air mass
remains higher confidence into the long term period.

While the Atlantic ridge attempts to build westward, of more
interest is what is forecast across the center of the nation. Global
models all point toward a digging trough across the Mississippi
River Valley with waves of short waves riding northeastward.  As
these waves track along the upstream trough axis and surface
boundaries, chances of convection increase.  Afternoon and evening
hours will likely have the better probabilities for thunderstorms
with showers overnight and during the morning hours.  If the latest
ensemble NAEFS are correct, we could see a little lower PoPs as the
Atlantic ridge builds a little more westward.

Temperatures through the period climb back into the 80s for most
areas and overnight lows moderate through the 60s to around 70F for
valley locations toward the end of this long term forecast period.
PWATs are expected to steadily climb in excess of 1.50" with values
approaching 2.00" for our northwest half of the CWA into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will build in at the surface while heights rise
aloft through the TAF period; 06Z/Thursday. Skies have become
mostly clear with some mid-level clouds moving through. The
question is will fog and/or stratus form overnight. The
development of fog is possible at KGFL while stratus and fog are
possible at KPSF. Any fog and stratus will burn off quickly,
otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Some fair weather
cumulus will develop during the day Wednesday.

Very light westerly to calm winds overnight. Westerly winds at 5
to 10 knots Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build into the region from the southwest
overnight through Thursday, bringing fair conditions. Below
normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday, warming
closer to normal for Thursday into Friday.

RH will recover to 90-100 percent tonight with areas of dew
formation possible. RH will then drop to 30-40 percent Wednesday
afternoon.

Winds will be west to northwest tonight into Wednesday at 5-15
mph, with a few gusts up to 20-25 mph possible Wednesday
afternoon within portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region
and Berkshires.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Generally dry conditions are expected tonight through Friday,
allowing any small river rises to fall once again.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Saturday and
Sunday, especially across the southern Adirondacks.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL