-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
210
FXUS61 KALY 130605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
205 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies and light winds will support patchy fog
tonight. Then, morning sun mixes with increasing clouds as
temperatures turn warmer ahead of a warm front. Chances for showers
return this afternoon into tonight with continued chances for some
showers and possible thunderstorms lasting through Wednesday. Then,
drier and seasonably warm conditions return late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1 AM EDT...Latest water vapor imagery and RAP
guidance indicate that upper level ridging building over the
Northeast has resulted in mainly clear skies. Temperatures are
responding to the clearing with many already in the low to mid
40s with parts of the southern Adirondacks already in the upper
30s. Favorable radiational cooling conditions continuing tonight
will likely support patchy fog formation, especially towards the
pre-dawn hours, thanks to weak winds, clear skies and moist
ground conditions from the recent rain. While latest GOES16
night fog channel and METARs do not show any fog yet and BUFKIT
soundings are not overly enthused about fog developing,
temperatures are approaching their respective dew points that
are still in the low 40s. Therefore, we continue to message fog
in the latest update but have trimmed back the overall coverage.
Fog could become locally dense in a few areas but should
quickly burn off shortly after sun rise. Otherwise, we adjusted
low temperatures downwards a few degrees since many sites are
already approaching the predicted low temperatures. Expect
morning lows to reach into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high
pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level
ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over
the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface
warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result
in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon
and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain
favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south.
Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of
thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s.

The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward
the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level
heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity
to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief
period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection
regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s
to mid-50s.

A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected
to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast
Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday
afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our
region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may
turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s
across the higher elevations.

The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region
on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just
ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid-
Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through
Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should
depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and
Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure
return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of
the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather
pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to
unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during
this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs
most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s
with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals with clear skies across much of Eastern New York and
western New England. However, with wet surface conditions and
high, low-level relative humidity, it is expected that some fog
could develop at the terminals this morning. Latest METAR obs
indicate the highest relative humidity at KGFL and KPSF thus
far, but the GOES-16 night fog product shows some valley fog
developing within the vicinity of not just these terminals, but
KPOU as well. Therefore, with the expectation for skies to
remain clear, yielding prime radiational cooling conditions,
included TEMPOs for fog at all terminals this morning. KGFL and
KPSF are expected to have the greatest reduction to visibility
given the latest trends, but KPOU could also cross into the
MVFR to possibly the IFR category given its fairly wet soils.
KALB also has a TEMPO for possible impacts due to fog, but
confidence is on the lower side for this terminal, so maintained
high MVFR-category conditions for now.

Any fog that develops early this morning should quickly burn off
come sunrise, yielding VFR conditions once again. Throughout the
remainder of the 06z period, clouds are anticipated to go on an
increasing trend at each terminal as an upper-level disturbance
crosses the region. Additionally, the approach of a warm front
later in the period will result in the increased chances for
showers. VFR conditions should remain in place through at least
23-01z when ceilings could lower and visibility could be reduced
due to some scattered showers. Confidence is lower in the
progged conditions towards the end of the period as showers
should be rather scattered in nature, but it is certainly
possible that any showers to grace each terminal could worsen
conditions to the MVFR category. Will continue to provide
increasing detail in later updates.

Winds throughout the period will prevail primarily out of a
southerly direction at sustained speeds of 4-8 kt. It is
possible, however, for KALB and KPSF to have some gusts of about
15-20 kt later in the period with the approach and subsequent passing
of the front.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Gant