Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 292104
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
304 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Key Messages:

 - Bitter cold air to end the month with continued wind chill
advisories for some.

 - Flurries tonight and possibly Tues-Thu, but generally little
   to no precipitation through the week.


Overview Tonight into Next Week:

The Saturday storm system brought a band of fresh snow across
northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin with a band of 3 to 7 inches of
snowfall. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures have only
made it into the single digits and teens, with sub-zero
temperatures noted upstream across parts of central MN.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will arrive as the longwave
trough swings through Ontario. Some flurries will be possible as
minus 20 deg C to -24 deg C 850mb air surges into the region
Monday morning. A 1040mb area of high pressure is forecast to be
centered over the Dakotas Monday morning and this settles into
Iowa during the day. The trough remains in the area Tuesday with a
ridge building into the western U.S. Wednesday. The should help
moderate temperatures Wednesday as the coldest air retreats to the
northeast. The ridge amplifies over the Rockies Thursday...and
this allows a cold front to plunge southward, with the cold air
lasting into Friday.

Bitter cold wind chills this week-a few flurries tonight:

The coldest wind chills through the week are forecast Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Friday mornings with -15 to -30.  Tonight, the winds
pick up with the surge of colder air and the surface high is of to
the west. Some flurries will be possible as well. Included several
of our counties in a wind chill advisory, note though that open
areas will be colder and protected/valley areas will not be as low
with wind chills. Wednesday morning will also see wind chills in
that same range as lows bottom out 5 to 15 below. Additional wind
chill headlines look to be needed.

The NAEFS anomalies this week are 1 to 2 standard deviations below
normal. The NAEFS ENS are similar...but a little colder Monday and
Friday; 2 to 2.5.  Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday moderate into
the teens and 20s, however plunge back into the single digits and
teens for Friday.  Warmer temperatures closer to normal or even
above normal look to return Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday into the weekend is looking mainly dry. With any ripple
or surge of cold air where there is moisture, flurries will be
possible. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, one of these could
bring some flurries to areas north of I94. Thursday could bring a
little light snow or flurries with the next Arctic front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

VFR conditions through the TAF period with mid and high level
clouds.  A mid-level trough will swing through tonight with re-
enforcing cold and flurries possible/ceilings fl050-090. The low
levels are on the dry side but will include a mention of flurries
in the area. Northwest winds 5 to 12kts with some intermittent
gusts.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Monday for WIZ032>034-
     041-042.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Monday for WIZ017-029.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ079-088-
     096.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Monday for MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Monday for IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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