216
AXNT20 KNHC 161028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are
forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas
forecast from 16/12 UTC to 16/21 UTC. Seas in the 8-11 ft range
are possible with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W
to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N40W to 07N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 16W
and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends south of Tampa Bay, Florida to 27N85W where
it transitions to a warm front that extends to the South Texas
coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the cold
front in the eastern Gulf along a pre-frontal trough in the
Florida Keys, N of 24N and E of 86W. Gentle to moderate SW winds
are east of the front, except fresh to localized strong SE winds
north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E winds are
found west of the front. Seas are slight to moderate across the
entire basin.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue lifting northward
today and stall tonight into Fri along the northern Gulf coast.
This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the
northern Gulf today through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds
will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the gradient
relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico
continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the basin is supporting fresh to strong
easterly winds offshore of central and eastern Honduras, as well
as in the south- central Caribbean, including portions of the Gulf
of Venezuela. Mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin, except light and variable in the southwest
Caribbean south of 12N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range east of 70W,
and in the 5-8 ft range west of 70W. Isolated moderate convection
is noted in the southwest Caribbean south of 12N.

For the forecast, the strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening
into Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the
Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening.
Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across areas in the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends off the Florida coast from 31N78W to the
Melbourne, Florida coast with a pre-frontal trough extending
across the Florida Straits to the northern Bahamas. Ahead of the
front and trough, numerous strong thunderstorms are noted N of
25N and W of 68W. Fresh to strong winds are also ahead of the
front. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the SW N Atlantic
waters. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are there, due to the influence of this high.

In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N44W to
the remnant trough near 25N50W. East of the front another surface
trough is producing scattered moderate convection north of 27N
between 33W and 38W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1028 mb high pressure north of the
area near 46N33W dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds prevail across the open waters and moderate seas, except
fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 18N between the coast of
Africa and 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will from 31N68W to
27N77W tonight and weaken as it extends from 31N61W to 27N72W Sat
morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast ahead of the front
through Fri along with showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve Fri night into Sat as the front dissipates. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun.

$$
AReinhart