066
AXNT20 KNHC 281027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: The National Weather Service in Miami,
FL has issued a GALE WARNING for coastal waters off of SE
Florida. 20 to 30 kt winds with gusts to 35 kt and 5-8 ft seas
are expected through 1500 UTC today. For more information, please
see local products at www.weather.gov/mfl and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N24W to 00N34W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 05N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge off New England is forcing fresh to strong easterly
winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to rough seas
are prevalent across the basin, with the highest seas occurring in
the NW Gulf. No deep convection is noted in the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will weaken on
Mon, diminishing the winds and seas across the basin. However,
winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan
Peninsula and south-central Gulf each evening through the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The aforementioned strong ridge in the NW Atlantic is also
sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the lee of
Cuba, Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.
Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring
in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and
seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean Sea and
remaining waters in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure system off New England will
slide southeastward over the next few days and gradually weaken.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue in the Gulf of
Honduras, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly
swell will bring seas of 8 ft through the passages in the NE
Caribbean early next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean during the rest of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 22N67W, then becoming a shear
line to western Hispaniola. A few showers are noted ahead of the
frontal boundary to 40W and north of 27N. Fresh to strong winds
and seas of 8-12 ft are found over much of the SW North Atlantic
behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring ahead of the front to 42W
and north of 27N.

Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 27N and east of
31W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are
noted north of the boundary. Fresh northerly winds are also
present in the offshore waters of Mauritania, along with seas of
4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will move E before stalling and
weakening over the far southeastern waters late today through Mon
night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will prevail N of 28N behind the
front to 65W with seas to 12 ft today. Also, fresh to strong
winds will be prevalent over the waters S of 25N and W of the
front today. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere into
early next week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected
afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
Delgado