571
AXNT20 KNHC 011009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is active S of 06N and E of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds across the Gulf, except west of the Yucatan
Peninsula where locally fresh NE winds are noted. 3 to 5 ft
combined seas are noted across the basin. Light to moderate smoke
from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is creating hazy
conditions for much of the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to strong
pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed night into the
weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half
of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and
to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by
a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over much of the Caribbean basin. Fresh
to strong winds are pulsing in the offshore waters of southern
Hispaniola, as verified by latest scatterometer data.
Scatterometer data also noted mainly gentle winds over the NW
Caribbean. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and
central basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide eastward and
weaken some over the next few days, resulting in mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds through the week and into the weekend.
Northerly swell will support rough seas through the the NE
Caribbean passages until this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1019 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast
Florida near 30N68W. To the east, a cold front extends from
31N49W to 28N64W. Another cold front extends from 32N36W to
26N40W. Scattered showers are noted along the fronts. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated that fresh winds prevail
off the north coast of Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and across the
Old Bahama Channel north of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and
latest altimeter satellite data show combined seas of 8-10 ft are
affecting the waters N of 28N and E of 60W. A scatterometer pass
showed fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N between 45W and 50W,
ahead of the weak cold front east of Bermuda. Moderate winds and
seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, high pressure
west of the Azores is supporting a large area of fresh to strong
NE winds and 8 to 9 ft over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will continue over the waters S of 22N and W of 60W through today,
including in the approaches of the Windward Passage. The high
pressure will move eastward while slowly weakening. A surface
trough may develop just N of Hispaniola over the next 48 hours and
move east toward the waters just north of Puerto Rico by the end
of the work week.

$$
ERA