022
AXNT20 KNHC 070449
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0405 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 01N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 07N
and west of 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge continues to influence the Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to
locally strong easterly winds are noted off northern Yucatan.
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent over much of the
remainder of the basin. However, light to gentle and slight seas
are found in the north of 26N and east of 85W.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central Mexico
into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in mainly
fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally
strong winds are likely to pulse nightly Tue through late week
off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off
the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night, shift
southeast, then slow down and weaken further as extends from
Tampa, Florida, to Tampico, Mexico, by late Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic
across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, and continues to enhance
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Greater Antilles and surrounding Atlantic waters S of 23N. The
trough will gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the
area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for
convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning
early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a
threat of flooding in the islands. See local weather advisories
for more information. Strong convection is also present in the SW
Caribbean, especially within 120 nm of central Panama.

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic, near Bermuda,
supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, as shown by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes are found in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-5 ft in the area
described. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean into late week. The high pressure will shift eastward
Thu, shifting the focus of fresh winds more to the southeast
Caribbean. Meanwhile, expect pulse of fresh to strong E winds
mainly at night across the Gulf of Honduras starting Thu night,
between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure
system near Bermuda. The aforementioned upper level trough is
enhancing the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of 23N. Generally dry conditions are found elsewhere west of
55W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft
are evident south of 25N and west of 55W. Moderate to occasionally
fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are present west of 75W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N30W to 19N46W, followed
by a shear line to the NE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds
and seas of 7-12 ft are found west of the cold front to 50W and
north of 26N. The highest seas are occurring near 31N47W. A broad
subtropical ridge off NW Spain dominates the rest of the basin.
The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa result in fresh to locally strong NE winds
north of 22N and east of 20W. Seas in the area described are 5-8
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered north of
Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E winds south of 23N into
Tue. These winds will diminish as the ridge shifts southward to
28N through mid week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with low
pressure well north of the region over the north central Atlantic
will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W through
Tue. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast
Florida starting Wed night as the high pressure shifts southeast
ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas.

$$
Delgado