Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 141056 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 656 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Morning fog gives way to quiet and warm weather today. Warm temperatures continue through the end of the workweek, with just a low chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Friday. The main cold front moves through on Saturday, bringing periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms, along with gusty winds. Turning much cooler and breezy with scattered lake effect rain showers around Sunday into Monday across Central NY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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645 AM Update Issued a special weather statement across most of the CWA to cover the locally dense fog this morning. Several locations are still seeing vsbys between 1/4 to 1/2 miles early this morning...with very localized areas under 1/4 mile. The fog should slowly lift and burn off by 9-11 AM this morning. Previous Discussion Below 4 AM Update Main concern today will be locally dense fog early this morning across NE PA, the Twin Tiers and Susquehanna region of CNY. Visibilities will be locally under 1/4 mile at times. This fog is expected to lift and scatter out by mid to late morning (9-11AM). After this, the upper level ridge amplifies over the region bringing partly to mostly sunny and warm condition for the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid-70s which is around 15 degrees above average. Quiet and mild weather this evening. Then, a weak disturbance /boundary approaches from the west later tonight. This will bring some increasing clouds and a low chance for a few showers or an isolated t`storm...mainly west of I-81. Overnight lows in the mid- 50s to lower 60s. Again about 15-20 degrees above the seasonal average. Friday: Warm front lifts north through the region, making it north of our CWA by midday. Will see some morning clouds and a few showers around...mainly for CNY. Then, becoming partly sunny very warm and humid as the deep southerly flow increases in the afternoon. Model soundings are showing several hundred Joules of MLCAPE Friday afternoon, but not much of a trigger as upper level ridge remains overhead. Still, cannot rule out a stray shower or t`storm. Otherwise, dew points surge up into the mid-60s and daytime highs are progged to reach the mid-70s to lower 80s. These temperatures could be close to record highs for the date.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 410 AM Update... A high amplitude trough will be moving into the mid and upper- Mississippi valleys Friday night, with diffluent southwesterly flow aloft developing across the northeastern US. This may help to produce some scattered showers across the area, mainly focused ahead of a developing warm front which will move north of the Mohawk Valley late Friday night. A deepening surface low associated with this system will move into the Ottawa Valley by Saturday morning, with a cold front extending southward into western NY/PA. Ahead of the front, increasing southerly flow with gusts over 25 knots will bring warm/moist air into the area. Rain showers will increase, but some breaks of sun will try to develop, with weak instability developing by late Saturday morning. Despite this weaker instability, strong bulk shear (pre- FROPA 0-6 km shear 50-60 knots) and strong forcing along the front will allow for some thunderstorms to develop, and a few may produce damaging wind gusts. Behind the front, winds will shift to the west and northwest, and a few showers will redevelop overnight, mainly over northern areas, down wind of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 410 AM Update... Finally some autumn-like weather in the wake of Saturday`s system. West to northwest winds at the surface, and continued cyclonic flow aloft will promote Mostly Cloudy skies with widely scattered lake-enhanced showers, especially near and north of I-90. High temperatures on Sunday will drop by around 15 degrees versus Saturday`s highs, but that still only gets us to near normal (or maybe a degree or two below). A secondary shortwave trough will drop into our departing upper trough early next week, forming a closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and dragging a reinforcing shot of colder air into the area, with 850 temps dropping below 0C over most of the CWA on Monday. Lake effect clouds and a few spotty showers will continue, with temperatures sliding another 2 or 3 degrees cooler. Tuesday night may be a good night for a widespread frost in rural areas, with cloud cover diminishing. Limiting factor is the pressure gradient suggests light-but-steady northwest winds continuing. Still, some of the sheltered valleys east of I-81 (Otsego/Delaware/Sullivan Counties) might decouple enough to cool off. Next system looks to stay just outside of the forecast period for Thursday...possibly followed by another intrusion of colder air? && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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11z Update Fog is impacting ELM, BGM, RME and AVP bringing IFR to occasional LIFR restrictions early this morning. This fog/stratus is expected to lift and scatter out by 14-16z with a return to VFR conditions for these terminals this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, SYR and ITH are currently mainly VFR...but could see some brief MVFR CIGS/VSBYs still early this morning (before 14z). Again, these two terminals have a high confidence for VFR conditions late morning, afternoon and this evening. Lower confidence that some lower level stratus clouds (MVFR to perhaps IFR) or patchy fog may develop once again late tonight; between 15/06-12z. Will need to monitor these trends closely for future TAF updates. Light and variable surface winds under 5 kts through the TAF period. Outlook... Friday through Friday evening...Frontal boundary stalled out in vicinity, then lifting north. Minor restrictions and spotty showers possible. Late Friday night through Saturday evening...Low pressure system with showers and perhaps thunderstorms as front passes; restrictions likely. Late Saturday night through Sunday night...Chance of showers, mainly for the NY terminals; intermittent restrictions possible. Monday...Chance of showers, mainly RME and SYR, and associated restrictions. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...MJM

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