Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 210355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
955 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A swift flow aloft continue to feed moisture into the state from
the northwest this evening resulting in areas of light snowfall in
the high country, mainly along and west of the Continental Divide
Snowfall rates have been on the light side and should remain that
way for the remainder of the night. Furthermore, the high clouds
streaming over the plains this evening is expected to thicken
overnight, and possibly lower after midnight. Still no precip east
of the mtns rest of the night. Lastly, the gusty west-northwest
sfc winds along the Front Range and out across the plains most of
the today and early this evening have eased up in many areas. This
trend should continue for the remainder of the evening.
Otherwise, few changes were necessary to the current forecast


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Over the plains, windy conditions will persist through the
evening. Light snow showers will continue over the mountains
through Wednesday. Accumulations are expected to be under an inch
or two along the higher passes. Wednesday will be warmer with
lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.Models have an upper ridge over the CWA Wednesday night into
Thursday evening. There is pretty strong southwesterly flow aloft
Friday and Friday night. There is benign synoptic scale energy
around Wednesday night. Upward energy is progged Thursday through
Friday and it is fairly strong midday Friday. Downward motion is
in place Friday night. The low level winds should adhere to normal
diurnal patterns Wednesday night through Friday night. Moisture-
wise, there is some upper level moisture Wednesday night. On
Thursday there is some lower and mid level moisture in the
mountains and some mid and upper level clouds for the plains.
Moisture increases over the mountains late in the day Thursday
with decent moisture overnight through much of Friday. There is
fairly decent moisture over the plains on Friday as well, and in
fact there is some measurable rain of the QPF fields for the
plains. There is more moisture and higher pops on today`s 12Z
model runs compared to yesterday`s 12Z runs. For pops, will
increase them to 40-70%s in the mountains Thursday night and
Friday. Will add some 10-30% pops in the plains Friday afternoon
on into the evening over the far northeast corner only.  As there
is some fairly decent CAPE there will add a slight chance of
thunderstorms. For temperatures, Thursday`s highs will be 4-6 C
warmer than Wednesday`s highs. Friday`s readings will be 3-7 C
cooler behind a cold front. For the later days, Saturday through
Tuesday, moist southwesterly flow aloft continues over the
forecast area on Saturday, Sunday into Monday. Later on Monday and
Tuesday troughiness is noted on the medium range models as they
all close off an upper circulation over the Southwestern United


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The gusty west-northwest winds across the Denver metro area this
afternoon and earlier this evening have weaken and will continue
to do so during the next few hours as they assume their typical
drainage component. For KDEN and KAPA that means a south-
southwest wind of 6 to 12 kts. For KBJC that means a west-
southwest wind of 4 to 7 kts. Should see this wind pattern develop
after 06z tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with
passing mostly cirrus clouds overnight.




SHORT TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Baker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.