114
FXUS65 KBOU 152034
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
234 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, ending
  from north to south.

- Warmer and generally drier starting Thursday, with lesser but at
  least isolated daily afternoon showers/thunderstorm coverage,
  highest for the mountains.

- A return to more active weather early next week with a better
  chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper level trough axis has shifted south and east of the area.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows some drying behind it over
northeast Colorado. There`s still enough low level moisture and
instability to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. As
northeast winds increase this afternoon, expect this upslope flow
to help trigger additional storms across the Front Range and
Palmer Divide. The stronger storms are expected to be found over
the southern foothills, Palmer Divide and south where ML CAPE
reaches up to 600 J/kg. Farther north, ML CAPE is generally
200-500 J/kg. The showers and storms slowly come to an end this
evening from north to south. There`s a slight chance showers
linger past midnight south of I-70.

For Thursday, weak subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail.
Expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. There will be a
chance for isolated afternoon showers/storms over the higher
terrain. If any activity develops, it`s expected to be weak and
short lived. Temperatures rebound Thursday with highs reaching the
mid to upper 70s across northeast Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper level high pressure building over Colorado will bring dry
weather to North Central and Northeastern Colorado on Friday. This
combined with some downsloping flow will produce very warm
temperatures across the plains with max readings climbing into
the lower to mid 80s. Friday night and Saturday, an upper level
shortwave will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern
Great Plains States. The system will be to far north of Colorado
to have any impact on our weather other than breezy conditions
across the northern sections of the CWA along with cooler
temperatures behind the passage of a cool front. In addition,
there may be just enough mid level moisture combined with daytime
heating to produce a few afternoon and evening showers and storms
late Saturday afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, Colorado will be influenced by a quasi-zonal flow with
a return to very warm temperatures and mostly dry conditons.

On Monday, the models are indicating some upper level troughiness
across the Western U.S. with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow
aloft over Colorado. This looks like it could be a good setup for
severe weather across the far northeastern plains if we can advect
enough surface moisture into the region. A similar upper level
pattern remains into the middle of next week with the exception of
lighter winds aloft. Models are also hinting at another cold
front moving across the plains Monday evening which should result
in cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. With this in
mind, the NBM solution of slightly above normal temperatures
along with a 15% to 40% chance for afternoon and evening showers
and storms looks reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form after
18Z, most numerous to the west and south of the Denver area.
Cumulus cloud heights will continue to slowly climb with a BKN
deck expected around 20Z at around 6000-7000 feet. Threat for
storms ends 00-01Z at DEN and slightly later at BJC and APA.
Expect VFR to prevail tonight, though there is a slight threat
for pockets of low clouds. Northeast winds to prevail today with
gusts to 20 knots developing. Winds become light after 01Z and
become southwest by 06Z. Thursday is looking drier with fewer
clouds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Meier