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794
FXUS65 KBOU 141735
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1035 AM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Quiet weather day continues across the area. Nudged up winds in
the foothills tonight where downslope winds may become breezy.
Didn`t make any changes to the forecast for today, though may need
to increase temperatures a little in a few locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Weak northwest flow aloft will be in place through tonight.  With an
intense short wave trough over the lower Mississippi Valley, we are
stuck in subsident side of the the upper ridge, meaning zero chance
of precipitation short term.  Clouds will be scarce as well.  At 700
mb the flow goes from north to northwest throughout today,
initiating warm advection and contributing to downslope flow
across the east slopes. 700 mb temps warm 4 degC over the next 24
hours. The result is an impressive warm up this afternoon,
approaching and perhaps exceeding 60 degrees across the Plains.
The warming will impact the mountains and west slope valleys as
well, with highs in the 40s today. With the short wave trough
pulling further east and the pressure gradient at the surface
relaxing throughout today, winds will be light area-wide other
than the higher slopes along the Continental Divide, but even
there speeds will be far below typical for mid-November. Tonight
above normal temps are expected for lows with low-level downslope
flow keeping temps at or above freezing along and west of I-25.
Elsewhere should be in the mid to upper 20s across the Plains,
with teens in the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Models keep showing upper ridging to dominate the weather for the
CWA Thursday into Friday. There will be weak west-northwesterly
flow aloft through Friday night. The synoptic scale energy is
benign over the forecast area Thursday through Friday evening.
Overnight, some weak upward vertical velocity moves in. The low
level winds look to follow the normal diurnal trends Thursday
through Friday. As before, models bring a cold front across the
CWA Friday evening with upslope flow behind it. The upslope is not
very deep. Moisture-wise, models keep it dry Thursday into Friday
morning. Moisture increases in the mid and upper levels by later
Friday afternoon. By Friday night, the moisture deepens as an
upper trough moves our way along with the upslope flow in place. The
QPF fields have measurable precipitation over the northern border
of the CWA after 06Z Friday midnight. Pops will be increasing
after midnight Friday night with the approaching trough. For
temperatures, both Thursday`s and Friday`s highs look similar to
today`s readings, which all are a tad above seasonal normals. For
the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, an upper trough
developing and pushing south from the northern U.S. Rockies will
move into and across Colorado and the CWA Saturday into midday
Sunday. Upper ridging will be in place for the forecast area
Monday and Tuesday. There is colder air, low level upslope and
some moisture with the trough. Snow is a good bet for much of the
CWA later Friday night into Sunday morning, but amounts will not
be significant. Temperatures will be below normals, more so,
Saturday and Sunday. They will warm back to near normals Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Southerly winds at KDEN are expected to become light and variable
by 19Z. The southerly drainage winds will return this evening,
around 02Z. A weak cold front will back into the Denver area
Thursday morning bringing northeast winds by 18Z. Skies will
remain mostly clear with just a few high clouds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...Meier