Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 210929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
329 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

WNW flow aloft will be over the area today and tonight. There is
some mid and high level moisture, embedded in the flow, which
will bring increasing cloud cover later this morning thru the aftn
hours. This moisture will then move out of the area by early
evening. Overall, the lower levels will be remain dry so no
precip will occur.  Meanwhile, despite cloud cover, will keep
highs in the 65 to 70 degree range over nern CO. Naturally, if
a thick cloud deck persisted most of the day, this could keep
highs lower than forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

On Friday, Upper level troughs of low pressure will be over the
Eastern and Western portions of the U.S. with a ridge of high
pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region. This pattern will result in
dry weather and above normal temperatures across the forecast area.
On Saturday, the upper ridge is progged to shift east into the
Central Plains States as the upper trough moves into Colorado. As
the trough moves into the area, mid and upper level winds will
increase resulting in gusty winds across the higher mountains and
foothills. Due to limited moisture, dry conditions are expected to

Saturday night into Sunday morning, the models are showing a potent
upper level shortwave moving across the CWA. Increased orographic
flow and moisture associated with the shortwave should result in a
good chance for snow over the Northern Mountains. There could be a
brief period of moderate to heavy snow with amounts generally
ranging between a trace and 3 inches, heaviest over the Gore and
Park Ranges. East of the mountains, mostly dry conditions are
expected with possibly a few light showers across the far
northeastern Plains.

On Sunday, upper level high pressure begins to build over the state
with dry and cooler weather expected.

On Monday, the upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the
Central Plains States as a large upper level trough of low pressure
deepens along the West Coast of the U.S. Colorado will lie between
these two systems under the influence of a dry southwesterly flow
aloft. This pattern would bring unseasonably warm temperatures and
dry weather to North Central and Northeastern Colorado with max
temperatures on the plains in the mid to upper 70s. The warm
temperatures combined with low relative humidity and gusty winds may
lead to elevated fire danger across the Palmer Divide and southern
foothills Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the models are in pretty good agreement showing another
upper level trough moving into Colorado from the west with upper
level ridging returning by Wednesday. This pattern would bring
cooler temperatures to the region along with another shot of snow
and breezy conditions to the high country Tuesday and Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Light SSW winds this morning will become more easterly by early
aftn.  By early evening they will become southeast and then trend to
drainage by midnight.  VFR conditions both today and tonight,
however, there will be a mid level cloud deck down to around
12000 ft this aftn.




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