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000
FXUS65 KBOU 241221
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
521 AM MST Thu Jan 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 521 AM MST Thu Jan 24 2019

Snow showers moving into Denver at this hour. The forecast looks
pretty good, just delayed things an hour or two. There is
widespread snow upstream across southeast Wyoming, but it all
looks pretty light with ceilings generally over 1000 feet and
visibilities over 2 miles. Cold/moist enough for some
accumulation, but it doesn`t look like there should be heavy
showers. This is already pretty well covered. Meanwhile light snow
also continues in most mountain areas this morning.

Drier air moves in this afternoon, with warm advection aloft
bringing stabilization late in the day. There could be flurries
around Denver until around noon, though the accumulating snow
should end before then. The mountain snow will also be tapering
off, though some minor accumulations may persist into the night.
Temperatures shouldn`t go anywhere today, with the cloud cover and
cold advection. Readings will stay in the 20s on the plains with
teens in the mountains.

Low level moisture will continue to diminish tonight, but the
warming aloft will set up a Front Range mountain wave. There will
likely be some wave cloudiness, and a window for areas favored in
NW flow to have gusts to around 60 mph. This should peak in the
evening or around midnight, with some decrease by morning. Plains
winds will be trending toward westerly by morning and many places
may have lows in the evening or middle of the night. We raised
temperatures a little both today and tonight as it isn`t that cold
yet this morning and there shouldn`t be too much clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 521 AM MST Thu Jan 24 2019

Models keep the CWA on the back side of a mean trough Friday
through Saturday night. The flow aloft is northwesterly on Friday
and Friday evening. A short wave is progged to move through the
CWA around midnight on Friday night with 100-120 knot jet level
northerly winds for much of Saturday. That flow slowly weakens
and becomes northwesterly overnight Saturday. The QG Omega field
show downward synoptic scale energy in place for the CWA on Friday
into Saturday, then very weak subsidence by Saturday night. The
low level wind and pressure fields point to weak downsloping
surface winds on Friday, with normal drainage patterns Friday
night. There is more downsloping on Saturday, then a drainage
/downsloping mix Saturday night. For moisture, Friday is pretty
dry early, then cloudiness is on the increase through the day.
There is decent moisture over the CWA Friday night. Saturday is
pretty dry again, then moisture increases later in the day and
Saturday evening. The QPF fields have varying amounts of
measurable snow over the high mountains all four periods. The
most is progged on Friday night, but still nothing significant.
Will go with 30-60% pops in the mountains Friday and Friday night,
then only 10-30%s there on Saturday and Saturday night. No pops
for the plains. Temperatures on Friday are progged to warm up some
4-6 degrees C from today`s chilly highs. Saturday`s highs will be
1.5-4.0 C warmer than Friday`s. For the later days, Sunday
through Wednesday, models keep strong northwesterly flow aloft on
Sunday into Sunday night, then a decent batch of energy is
progged to move down the back side of the upper trough Sunday
night and Monday. A strong cold front moves across the CWA Monday
morning with upslope flow behind it. There will be a chance of
snow for the western 3/4ths of the CWA Sunday night into Monday
but nothing significant looking at this time. Tuesday and
Wednesday are pretty dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 521 AM MST Thu Jan 24 2019

Snow showers will produce MVFR conditions this morning. There will
be localized IFR until 18z. VFR conditions are expected by 21z
which will continue through tonight. Snow accumulations of 1-2
inches are expected this morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad