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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231926
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
326 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

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Light to moderate rain continues this evening before ending
overnight. Rain is possible again Sunday afternoon to Monday morning
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia track northeast.
Winds remain blustery through Tuesday gusting up to 30mph. High
pressure builds in from the north midweek which carries us into
early next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

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Dry air is slowly eroding this afternoon as rain attempts to
saturate the mid levels of the atmosphere. Off and on light rain
should continue this evening with moderate to heavy rain staying
over Cape Cod and the Islands. Rain tapers off overnight as Tropical
Storm Ophelia weakens and the dry slot behind Ophelia works into the
region. Low level cloud cover is expected to remain over the
region tonight helping keep lows in the low to mid 50s. Winds
will be quite blustery overnight gusting 20 to 25 mph inland and
30 to 35 mph over the waters and near coastal areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

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Models continue to struggle with the extent of precipitation for
much of southern New England with a very dry airmass sandwiched
to the north with a upper level ridge and the dry slot working
in behind Ophelia. The best chance for rain appears to be across
southern CT and RI as the remnants of Ophelia track south of
Long Island. Because of uncertainty in northern extent of rain,
kept pops caped at 60% for CT and RI and less then 50% for MA.
Highs Sunday will still be below normal only reaching the low to
mid 60s. Winds diminish slightly only gusting 15 to 20 mph
inland and 25 to 30 mph near the coasts and over the waters.
Overnight lows Sunday night once again remain in the low to mid
50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Highlights:

* Periods of rain on Monday, ending north to south throughout the
  day. Cool and raw with gusty E/NE winds.

* Dry and sunny midweek into early next weekend with temperatures
  returning to the middle/upper-60s, pushing 70 degrees Friday and
  Saturday.

Monday into Monday Night...

Remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia bring clouds and showers to the
region, along with a strong low-level jet. No big changes in the
forecast, still expect showers the first-half of the day south of
the Mass Pike, but with the highest POPs along the southcoast, Cape
Cod, and the Island. Showers taper off from north to south, but
still expect there will be more clouds than sunshine during the
afternoon. As for winds, a 925mb jet is robust with winds 35 to 45
knots, which will keep surface winds rather breezy. Once we rid the
area of showers, BUFKIT shows good mixing of the boundary layer and
we should be able to mix down wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph. As
the wind is out of the east, do expect to have a raw feeling with
afternoon highs in the low 60s across eastern MA and RI, further
west temperatures should still be able to reach the upper-60s to
possibly 70 degrees.

Breezy winds do continue overnight along with cloudy skies, do not
anticipate a sudden drop off in temperatures. Coolest spots, the
lower-40s, are across the northern Worcester Hills and the eastern
slopes of the Berkshires. Coastal plain falls to the middle and
upper-40s, while the coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands are in the
lower-50s.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Likely another dry and quiet stretch of weather, similar to the
previous week with Canadian high pressure building to the north.
There will be still lingering wind gusts on Tuesday, but not
expected to be as strong given the weakening low-level jet. PWATs
fall to less than 0.5" but, there looks to be elevated moisture,
likely to have some cirrus clouds Tuesday afternoon, so not a true
sunny/blue sky day. Given the breezy northeast winds Tuesday
afternoon, highs are similar to what we expect on Monday. Winds
ease overnight and sky cover thins, despite some high cirrus clouds
we should have a good chance to radiate. Did blend in the cooler MOS
guidance for Wednesday morning, that brings temperatures well into
the low and middle-40s. Not out of the question to have a few spots
dip into the upper-30s across the northern Worcester Hills and the
eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Cold, but still 3-5 degrees too
warm for a Frost Advisory.

Midweek into early next weekend there is little weather to discuss
as a 1035mb high builds to our north. Sunny and seasonable days with
highs reaching the upper-60s, pushing 70 degrees by Friday and
Saturday. As for the overnights, they are chilly in the lower-40s
continue Wednesday night and Thursday night. Night time lows
moderate to the upper-40s and low-50s Friday night and Saturday
night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.


Rest of Today...Moderate confidence.

MVFR to IFR this afternoon as light rain/showers continues to
erode dry air. Moderate to heavy rain should stay confided to
Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds become strong this afternoon
gusting 30-35 knots out of the NE.

Tonight...Moderate confidence

Rain tapers off but MVFR to IFR cloud deck sticks around. There
is still some uncertainty on how far NE the IFR cloud deck can
extend with dry air. Winds remain gusty up to 35 knots out of
the NE

Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Continued MVFR to IFR, however the extent of IFR remains
uncertain. The best chance for IFR remains in southern
terminals with MVFR more likely for northern and western
terminals. Rain moves back in tomorrow afternoon with the best
chance being across western terminals. Less windy tomorrow with
gusts only 20 to 25 knots out of the NE.

Sunday Night...

Improving conditions to MVFR/VFR. Winds remain NE but continue
to gust 20 to 25 knots.


KBOS TAF... Moderate confidence. Lowering to MVFR in the
afternoon as rain overspreads the region. Uncertainty on
northern extent of IFR cigs but kept these lower cigs to the
south.

KBDL TAF... Moderate Confidence. VFR dropping to MVFR this
afternoon with off and on light rain showers.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Patchy BR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Patchy
BR.

Thursday: VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale warnings remain in effect for much of the southern coastal
waters with gusty winds of 35 to 40 knots. Gale force winds should
end overnight tonight, however winds will remain elevated gusting 20
to 25 knots during the day on Sunday. Seas overnight will rise
to 10 - 12 feet in the southern coastal waters with 4 to 8 feet
in the northern coastal waters. Seas begin to subside Sunday as
winds begin to diminish. Gale force winds become possible again
Sunday night into Monday mainly for the southern coastal waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-236.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ251.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley/KP
MARINE...Dooley/KP