Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 030706 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 206 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain ends this morning as a low pressure moves northeast and away from our region. However, the clouds appear to linger through a large part of the upcoming week, with better chances for steady rains Tuesday and Thursday. Temperatures for the workweek are above normal, but start to trend cooler by next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A low pressure move off to the northeast of our region today, gradually dragging the rainfall with it. Really like the latest NationalBlend timing, although even that was a little slow when compared to radar trends. Thus, bridged the gap between the two during the early morning hours. Currently thinking that back edge of the rainfall is just east of a line from Cape Ann and outer Cape Cod by 7 AM. A few lingering pockets of drizzle or showers are possible into mid morning though. Just some weak mid level ridging to coincide with the increasing surface pressure. Model sounding show a 1-2 kft thick saturated layer trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Thus, while there may be some breaks of sunshine late today, especially across the western half of southern New England, clouds should be more dominant than not. That said, the little bit of sunshine we do see should be enough to boost temperatures slightly higher than yesterday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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High pressure starts to build into our region from the north tonight, and continues into Monday. However, the core of this high pressure should remain well to our northeast. Thus, while we should remain dry most of the time tonight and Monday, the subsidence is not quite strong enough to suppress the clouds. These clouds will moderate our temperatures, by not letting them lower at night, but also not letting things warm up quite as much during the day. Expecting low temperatures tonight fairly close to what we be the normal high temperatures for early March. This higher starting point should maintain above normal high temperatures Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Highlights: * Cloudy, dreary and gray workweek, albeit with above normal temps. * Several opportunities for hit or miss showers or drizzle, but better rain chances are focused on Tuesday and into Thursday. Potential for soaking rain on Thursday, possible rain/wet snow mix in the higher terrain? * Temps trend more seasonable by late week into early weekend. Details: Growing confidence on a pretty dreary, cloudy and unsettled weather pattern for a good portion of the upcoming workweek. Couple of periods of more focused steadier rains: one is around Tuesday into Tuesday night, and another around Thursday into Thursday night. This latter system offers the potential for soaking rain but there is more uncertainty in the track and strength pertaining to this latter system. Another storm system moving in from the southwest could bring another period of precipitation for next weekend but there is larger uncertainty regarding this system. Temps through this period begin above normal through most of the week but likely with a narrower range between high and low temps given the cloud cover (particularly, milder nights). Later in the week and by the weekend, temps cool to seasonable levels (highs in the lower-mid 40s, lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s). Tuesday: Deamplifying shortwave trough in SW flow aloft associated with weak sfc low initially over the Carolinas/Delmarva Peninsula spreads northward into western New England, then peels ENE into the Gulf of ME/Atlantic Canada for Tue night. Despite this low weakening through this period, its feed of higher moisture (e.g. PWATs around 1 inch) should bring a round of steady light rains starting around the higher terrain in western portions of SNE by the morning, then advancing eastward through central MA/eastern CT and eastern MA/RI through the rest of the afternoon, before then gradually tapering off from west to east Tue night. Though we do have a favorable feed of subtropical moisture, and some areas in the higher terrain could see locally higher rain totals given a modest upslope component, the weakening and progressive nature to the system limits QPF to around a half to three quarters of an inch. Not anticipating any hydrologic concerns from this slug of rain and it should really just be a pretty soggy day. Reduced highs from NBM values to the upper 40s to lower 50s given clouds/rain, while increasing lows from NBM into the lower to mid 40s with not much opportunity for cloud-clearing behind this system. Wednesday and Thursday: Weak/relative high pressure briefly moves across on Wednesday; though it will be generally cloudy and there may be intervals of drizzle or light rain showers at times, expecting overall drier weather. Highs should reach into the 50s, on the lower end of 50s along the south coast. However our weather then turns active again around later Wed night and especially into Thurs as a stronger shortwave disturbance in SW flow and its surface low comes up from either the mid-Atlantic or Ohio Valley/central Appalachian region and spreads another round of rain to our area. This system looks to have a richer degree of moisture and also a bit more in the way of stronger forcing, but there is still a considerable deal of uncertainty on the track and strength of this system. The GFS and most of its ensemble members depicts a weaker ridge of high pressure over Quebec, and allows for a more progressive wave of low pressure to trek through western New England. The stronger and wetter solution is the ECMWF camp, which keeps a stronger high pressure over Quebec and allows surface low to develop and trek over our southern waters; verbatim, this would bring potentially greater amounts of QPF, but could also draw colder air southward and potentially bring a rain/wet snow mix to the higher terrain. EPS ensembles also show moderate to high probs (40- 70%) of 24 hr rains over 1 inch over southeastern New England. Advertised Likely PoPs for now; however QPF/possible higher terrain snow amts are still quite uncertain and will need refinement as we move through the upcoming week. Gradual clearing expected for Thurs night as high pressure tries to ridge in from the NW, although a solution closer to the ECMWF could keep light rain showers going in eastern MA through a good portion of the night. Highs on Thursday only reach into the mid to upper 40s, although colder air will be gradually building in later Thurs into Thurs night bringing lows into the mid 30s in the lower valleys/coastal plain, with temps near or around freezing in the higher terrain. Friday and Friday Night: High pressure to build in to a greater degree on Fri, bringing a blustery day owing to a stronger shot of colder air aloft. Better opportunity for cloudy breaks on Fri. Seasonable high and low temps. Saturday: Ridging is maintained at least initially, though will have to watch the next system coming in from the Ohio Valley and its timing which is still unclear.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR to start, with some improvement to MVFR during the afternoon from W to E. Areas of VFR possible late this afternoon in the CT River valley. Low clouds may allow for lingering drizzle during the morning hours. Winds shifting to the N as a low pressure moves farther offshore. Tonight and Monday...Moderate confidence. High pressure to our N generates a N to NE wind tonight, and a NE to E wind Monday. Mainly MVFR tonight and Monday. Local IFR tonight across the higher terrain. Pockets of VFR possible Monday afternoon. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Brief improvement to VFR early this morning is not expected to persist. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...Moderate confidence. Expecting winds to diminish later this morning. Wind gusts did reach gale force briefly just after midnight. But given the expected trend, will continue with the Small Craft Advisory headlines. A low pressure moving east of the waters will permit seas to gradually subside. Visibility improves marginally today, with rainfall being replaced with fog. More substantial visibility improvement tonight into Monday, although some fog could return during the early morning hours Monday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely. Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain likely.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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While rainfall will come to an end this morning, will still need to watch area waterways. In particular, the Pawtuxet River at Cranston, as well as the Wood River at Hope Valley. Flood Warnings may be need for these locations. Will assess the rate of rise with the next data dump from the gages, then decide.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for ANZ235-237-250- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ236-251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Loconto NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Belk/Loconto MARINE...Belk/Loconto HYDROLOGY...Belk

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