Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 051155 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
555 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Mostly zonal flow aloft will return today, and drier air in the mid
levels will support a gradual reduction in cloud cover going into
the afternoon. Light surface winds will shift back to the southeast
through the day, picking up slightly this evening. This pattern will
support warmer temperatures this afternoon, with much of the area
breaking into the low 90s. The coastal counties look to stay largely
in the upper 80s, while the beaches stay in the 70s.

Dense marine fog is anticipated to develop again tonight as warm
humid air continues to move across cooler sea water. Light onshore
winds could advect some fog into coastal areas. Further inland, some
slight visibility reductions are possible, but wind speeds will
likely hinder fog development, instead favoring increased low
stratus. Low temperatures tonight look to fall back into the 60s.

Cloud cover will likely decrease Wednesday morning, and temperatures
will climb back into the upper 80s across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

The most significant event during this portion of the total
forecast will be the Friday passage of a cold front. Well above
normal daytime highs and overnight lows will occur in advance of
the front, with more near normal values in the wake of the
boundary. Despite the frontal passage, a nearly zonal 500 mb flow
over the BRO CWFA will produce dry weather throughout the entire
period. Moderate to breezy winds will occur at the surface, but
wind strengths will not approach established Wind Advisory
criteria.

Finally, please refer to the Fire Weather section below for
impacts to wildfire conditions due to the passage of the cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Lingering fog and low stratus will clear this morning as
conditions become VFR before noon. VFR conditions are expected to
last through the afternoon, however fog and low stratus are
expected to redevelop ovenight at BRO and HRL. IFR to LIFR
conditions are anticipated to return around midnight.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Marine fog remains the primary concern through the short term. A
Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM, and while
visibilities are expected to increase through the day, some fog
will likely linger over the coastal waters. Dense fog is likely to
redevelop tonight as the boundary layer becomes more saturated.
Otherwise light winds and low seas look to persist through the day
Wednesday as high pressure builds back over the northern Gulf.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
The passage of a cold front Friday will bring increasing winds and
building seas along the Lower Texas Coast Saturday and Sunday, and
Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory will likely
be needed for these more adverse marine conditions. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast period will feature light to moderate
winds and low to moderate seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

The passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley is anticipated for Friday. The combination of winds
at the 20-foot level and minimum relative humidity percentages on
Saturday will create conditions more conducive for wildfire growth
and spread, and a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement may be needed at
that time for portions or all of the BRO CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             86  66  81  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               87  63  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 91  66  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  65  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  66  73  68 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  64  78  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...60-BE


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