597
FXUS64 KBRO 130455 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Warm and rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas
through the short term period as the region remains under the
influence of mid-level ridging. Light and variable winds this
morning will continue to gradually shift to the southeast through
tonight, before increasing to around 10 MPH with occasional higher
gusts late tomorrow. Given the recent rainfall, light rain, and
generally clear skies, some patchy fog is expected to develop
across the Northern Ranchlands and portions of the Rio Grande
Valley. Any fog should dissipate by the early to mid morning hours.
Yet another warm day is expected on Friday with highs in the 90s
across most of the region to around 100 degrees across the Rio
Grande Plains. In combination with the humidity, heat indices will
range from 100 to 110 degrees Friday afternoon. A few areas may
briefly touch 111 degrees, but should be rather sparse.

For the Lower Texas beaches, a Coastal Flood Statement will continue
through this evening as conditions continue to gradually improve.
Conditions should become more favorable tomorrow with lower seas and
a low risk of rip currents.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

- Best Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Sunday/Monday

Long term...Global forecast models indicate that low pressure
troughs set up over the NW and SE corners of the CONUS with
ridging extending from Mexico over Texas to the Great Lakes. Even
with the ridging over Texas, moisture surges over Deep South
Texas from Pacific TC #9 and return moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico. This moisture combines with shortwave energy, sea breeze
and increasing instability providing our region with a chance of
rain Saturday-Tuesday. Deterministic and Ensemble models remain
persistent with Sunday and Monday have the best chances (40-50%)
with Saturday and Tuesday-Thursday having more of isolated
(20-30%) coverage. Rain amounts Sunday and Monday will be highly
variable with probabilistic guidance showing low to medium
(15-45%) chances from 0.1-0.5 inches. GFS/ECMWF indicate pwats
upwards of 2.4 inches Sunday so can not rule out slow moving
thunderstorms producing 1-3 inches in any given location.

Temperature guidance also remains persist and consistent among
the 12Z model suite. Normal highs and slightly above normal
overnight lows are expected through next week. Depending on the
overall cloud cover and developing rain chances Sunday and Monday,
afternoon temperatures may be slightly below normal. There is a
low 15-25% probability that several locations(away from the cooler
coast) may not even top 90 degrees Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

VFR conditions now with clear skies and light winds. May see
patchy, light, pre-dawn fog in spots. Otherwise, we expect VFR
conditions for the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Generally favorable marine conditions
will prevail with light to moderate winds and low to moderate
seas.

Saturday-Tuesday...Surface ridge settles over the Gulf of Mexico
as mid-level high pressure becomes anchored over Texas. Models
indicate light southeast winds and low seas through the period.
Probabilities of any Exercise Caution statements or Small Craft
Advisories are very low with probs for seas/waves above 5 feet at
zero percent and winds greater than 15 kts at 10-15% through
Monday. An increase in showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday
may pose the highest marine impact with thunderstorm chances at
30-40 percent both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  78  93  79 /  10   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               95  75  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                100  78 100  79 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  88  82 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  76  91  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...54-BHM