Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 180933
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
433 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Hot and humid weather with
above normal temperatures will prevail through the period as mid
level ridging builds over northern Mexico. Surface high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico will bring steady light to moderate
southeast winds and allow limited low level moisture to move up from
the south. Some light fog will be possible across ranchlands around
sunrise. High temperatures today will range from the 80s at the
beaches, mid to upper 90s inland and triple digit heat across the
west, mainly west of the I-69C corridor, and will support heat index
values of 108 to 112 degrees for a couple of hours this afternoon. A
heat advisory does not appear likely for today due to the duration
and coverage of the heat indices, but will be closely monitored.
Another warm and muggy night is on tap for tonight with low
temperatures falling only into the upper 70s and lower 80s under
partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Wednesday should be a
couple of degrees warmer than today with triple digit high
temperatures spreading closer to the coast, along the I-69E
corridor. The combination of the higher temperatures and the
persistent higher dewpoints will support afternoon heat index values
of 111 to 116 or higher, on Wednesday. Heat advisories are likely
for all or portions of the deep south Texas Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The main issue in this
portion of the forecast continues to be heat. Broad 500 mb high
pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico and extended over Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will persist throughout the
period, essentially preventing any precipitation and producing
limited cloud cover. With well above normal daytime high
temperatures forecast and a relatively moist and humid atmosphere
also in place, the potential for a Heat Advisory and/or Excessive
Heat Warning for portions or all of the BRO CWFA each day is
high.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Favorable marine conditions are
expected through much of the period as high pressure settles across
the Gulf. Light to moderate southeast winds with seas of 2 to 4 feet
will prevail through midweek. Small craft exercise caution
conditions may be possible on the Laguna Madre by Wednesday
afternoon.

Wednesday Night through Monday: An enhanced pressure gradient
continues to be anticipated for this period with high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with thermal low pressure over
northern Mexico. A Small Craft Advisory for Winds is likely to be
needed for the Laguna Madre beginning on Thursday, with Small
Craft Advisory for the Gulf of Mexico waters likely beginning on
Friday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  80  94  82 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          95  81  96  82 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            97  79  99  81 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             100  80 102  82 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 106  81 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  83  87  83 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
Meso/Upper Air...Mejia-67


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