Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 190451 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1051 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate low
to mid level clouds with light rain and mist across the CWA late
tonight. Ceilings were near 300ft at KBRO to near 3400ft across the
northern and western portions of deep south Texas. Visibilities were
near 3SM with light rain/mist at KPIL to near 6SM with light
rain/mist at KBRO. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions across the Rio
Grande valley the rest of tonight into Tues morning as the coastal
low across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to provide
overrunning conditions across the lower Texas coast. Ceilings and
visibilities will be low/reduced with light rain/drizzle/mist across
the eastern portions of the CWA tonight into Tuesday.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate low
to mid level clouds across the CWA early this evening. Ceilings
were near 800ft at KPIL to near 3200ft at KAPY. Visibilities were
near 6SM with mist at KPIL. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to
prevail across the Rio Grande valley tonight into Tues morning as
a coastal trough across the western Gulf of Mexico provides low
ceilings/visibilities with light rain/drizzle/mist across the
coastal sections of the CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): West coast trough has
settled more into the Desert SW, where it will sit through the
week. Coastal low pressure continues to spin up today, with the
frontal boundary stalled just south of the border and coastal
waters. Drizzle and areas of light rain have begun to work onshore
from the east, expected to pick up tonight into Tuesday as the
low begins to work further north, dragging the frontal boundary
back toward the lower Texas coast as a warm front. As the surface
low works northeast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, the
boundary slides back southeastward as a weak cold front. Light
rain and drizzle chances decrease Tuesday afternoon into late
Tuesday night, before returning Wednesday morning.

High temperatures today top off into the low 60s, with lows tonight
ranging from near 50 across the northern ranchlands and upper 50s in
the RGV. Highs on Tuesday become the tricky part of the forecast,
with a weak warm front and some breaks in the cloud cover possible,
especially across the lower RGV and coastal locations. For now, have
settled toward the warmer GFS and leaned cooler, with near 70s south
and east, and mid 60s north and west.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): A deep 530 dam
trough/closed low at 500mb will move eastward from the Four
Corners region to the Central Plains around mid-week, with several
weak shortwaves periodically moving around the trough across
Texas. At the surface, a coastal low will lift northward along the
coast, bringing brief southerly flow back to Deep South Texas
early Wednesday. Models bring the front back southward as a cold
front Wednesday afternoon, with stronger northerly winds and
little CAA. Unsettled weather will quickly return through
Thursday as coastal troughing develops once again. Occasional
light rain and drizzle is expected, with better chances across the
RGV and coastal areas. Finally some warmer and drier conditions
are anticipated by the end of the week Friday into Saturday with
more persistent southerly flow returning to the CWA. The next
storm system will track through the Plains, increasing the PGF and
allowing for breezy to windy conditions. This will also allow
temperatures to rise well above normal with models indicating
highs in the 80s to possibly low 90s out west. As the surface low
lifts eastward, it should bring the next cold front through late
in the weekend, bringing much cooler temperatures during the day
Sunday. With moisture expected to be shallow throughout the week,
QPF is expected to be low, so there may be periods with no
measurable drizzle/rain (0.01 or more), but still poor
visibilities and wet roadways.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday night): Hazardous marine conditions
continue into Tuesday afternoon as coastal low pressure works north
along the lower Texas coast, dragging a frontal boundary behind it.
High pressure builds in briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, allowing winds to decrease and seas to subside. SCAs
persist into Tuesday afternoon, with SCEC conditions likely into
Wednesday.

Wednesday through Monday: Small Craft Advisory conditions are
possible in the wake of a cold front on Wednesday, with Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions for the rest of the forecast
period. Southerly flow will return towards the end of the week
with moderate winds and seas continuing. The persistent light rain
and drizzle should also take a break as stronger low-level
returns. The next front will be possible Saturday night into
Sunday, bringing stronger north winds and building seas once
again.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

$$

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