Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221936 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorms will continue across much of the area through this evening as a cold front crosses the region from west to east. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected through mid week. The next chances for precipitation will be Wednesday night onward as a low lifts through the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 remains in effect until 10 pm. Showers are becoming more numerous now across northern NY and far northwestern VT. Have yet to see any lightning, but it shouldn`t be long as the showers are making their way toward the better instability that resides over much of VT. Although the best shear still lies to the west, we do expect thunderstorms will strengthen through the remainder of this afternoon/evening, with some possibly turning severe. Gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall are the most likely threats, although large hail is possible as well. The thunderstorms are being driven out ahead of a cold front which has already moved into the St Lawrence Valley. Temperatures are already turning colder there; KMSS is currently 59 degrees, down from 73 degrees from just over an hour ago. This will be the trend through this evening, and expect the front to make it through our entire forecast area by midnight. Temperatures and dewpoints will both drop markedly, making for a much more comfortable sleeping night. Lows will mainly be in the 40s to around 50. Monday is going to feel very different than the past couple of days as high pressure settles over the region. Highs will only be in the lower to mid 60s, with spots potentially struggling to get out of the 50s. We`ll start out with some cloud cover, but overall expect increasing sunshine through the day. The clearing skies and light winds will make for a good radiational cooling night Monday night, and expect temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s across much of the area. The usual colder locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could see lower/mid 30s along with patchy frost.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday should be a practically perfect weather day. Anticipate high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, light winds, partly cloud skies, and no chances for precipitation. Overnight, southerly winds will be on the increase, which will result in seasonably warm conditions (about 2 to 3 degrees above normal) in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...The extended forecast features strong surface high pressure gradually shifting east while 500hPa high builds and lifts northwards. With a stronger high in probabilistic data, Wednesday and Thursday appear likely to be warmer and drier. Yet, not wanting to make a complete swing towards dry weather, will still advertise at least a chance of precipitation each day as a warm front lifts northward, bringing warm, moist air into the region. Fortunately, this air mass is not nearly as anomalous as the last few air masses, and this should push temperatures only about 5 degrees above normal, into the upper 70s by Thursday. The second shift being seen in forecast model outputs is the earlier interaction of two shortwave troughs. As opposed to taking place over New England, the trend is for interaction to happen far earlier near the Mississippi River Valley. This results in a more sharply defined 500hPa trough, and reasonably fits with the concept of a stronger downstream 500hPa high. The trough is still negatively tilted, though, and the frontal boundary will be well- defined, even if it`s not as thermally sharp as some of the recent fronts. So showers and storms appear likely on Friday, with a few being moderate to locally heavy. Flow appears rather progressive, and there could be a few orographic showers lingering on Saturday, but the trend appears drier in that time frame. Thereafter, the pattern becomes messier as 3 different shortwaves appear to get entangled across the Intermountain West. These interactions are challenging, particularly a week in advance. There are hints that some moisture may stream over a ridge axis to our west next Sunday night into Monday, and will advertise at least some chances for precipitation. Changes in the upper ridge amplitude will impact the placement of that precipitation. So we shall see how it evolves over the coming days.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop early this afternoon and will continue to intensify, especially over VT, as a cold front crosses the area. Some of these storms will be severe, with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and up to 1 inch hail possible. Local IFR also possible in any thunderstorms. Expect fairly widespread MVFR ceilings along and behind the front, with this low-level moisture to linger until about 12z. Ceilings lift to VFR thereafter. Winds will be from the south/southwest with gusts to 20 knots today, then become west/northwest behind the front, gradually diminishing in intensity to 12 knots or less towards 06Z. North/northwest winds 5-10 kt expected after 12z Monday. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Hastings

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