Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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067 FXUS61 KBTV 261118 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 718 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperature will warm back into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with a plenty of sunshine for most locations. . The next system will move into the region on Memorial Day bringing breezy winds and widespread rain and chances for Thunderstorms through early Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week with temperatures trending back to seasonal averages.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 708 AM EDT Sunday...Minimal updates needed this cycle with the forecast verifying well. Fog did form in portions of central Vermont where light rain fell overnight. It`s fairly localized and should dissipate in the next hour or so, but spots around Montpelier, Barre, and Bethel may be dense. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible over terrain in southern Vermont this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Previous Discussion...Focus for impactful weather remains on a stronger variety system expected to move into the North Country on Memorial Day. A strong low level jet of 50-70kts at 850mb has consistently been depicted accompanying the system. These speeds will promote an influx of anomalously high PWATS greater than 1.5". Temperatures in the 70s will also aid in destabilizing low levels to support some embedded convection ahead of the warm front and within the warm sector as well. As such, 0.4-1.5" of QPF is expected with downslope areas of the northern Adirondacks into northern Champlain Valley receiving as little as 0.25". The bulk of the rain is expected to fall late Monday evening through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms could push localized totals higher resulting in a 5% chance of a flash flooding. Also, winds could be locally strong on the northern flanks of the Adirondacks and over/adjacent to Lake Champlain. 55kts present at the 925mb level, peaking Monday afternoon ahead of rainfall, will support some stronger gusts to around 40mph. If 925-850mb winds continue to presented above 60kts ahead of rainfall, higher gusts may occur; we`ll be watching this evolution over the next 12-24hrs closely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be diminishing Tuesday west to east with lingering rain in eastern Vermont. With flow remaining southwesterly and overnight temperatures remaining in the 60s, daytime highs Tuesday will climb again into the mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees; can`t rule out a few thunderstorms, but supporting dynamics aloft are not favorable for anything strong. Southwesterly flow and moderately tight pressure gradient will support some continued breezy conditions in northern New York; gusts ranging 20-30 mph in general. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Weather models continue to disagree on the speed at which the upper low pressure will shift showers out of our forecast area this week. Wednesday currently has the best potential for precipitation in the long term as most models swing the trough through then, while Friday shows some evidence of relatively drier conditions and even some partly to mostly sunny skies. Ensembles show decreasing chances of measurable precipitation as we move toward and into the weekend. Not a lot of instability to speak of during this period with a capping inversion around 800mb on Wednesday, so mostly showers in the forecast for now. Highs for the second half of the week will be in the upper 50s to lower 70s, a touch cooler than seasonal averages for late May here in northern New York and Vermont. The coolest day looks to be Thursday, with highs only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s and a breezy northwesterly wind. Low temperatures will also take a minor hit as the low pressure begins to peel off. Nighttime lows will go from the 50s Tuesday night to the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday- Friday nights. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 12Z Monday...Only MPV fogged in this morning since skies cleared over the terminal with preceding light rain overnight. LIFR conditions will continue until around 12Z before dissipating in the 12-13Z time frame. Scattered low clouds will remain for the remainder of the day with high clouds increasing overnight ahead of an approaching storm system. Northerly winds will shift southerly after 23Z with RUT picking up a little downslope overnight. A strong LLjet will move into the region after 06Z with LLWS ramping up west-east mainly after 09Z. Added LLWS to MSS. MPV stands the best chances to see MVFR after 08Z as southeast flow goes upslope over the terminal. Impacts to aviators will increase after this TAF period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Boyd