Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161402 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 1002 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will become quasi-stationary across east-central New York into Massachusetts, with a continued potential of rain showers across southern Vermont today. Further north, skies will trend partly sunny with light north to northwesterly winds. Temperatures will be a bit lower than yesterday, with valley highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday, though there will be some potential fog in favored valley locations during the overnight hours. The next widespread rainfall is not expected until Thursday or Friday as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1002 AM EDT Sunday...RAP 500mb analysis shows shortwave moving into northern NY. Cold front is currently positioned along south-central Vermont and should expect some moisture to overrun the boundary, allowing rain chances to increase across south-central Vermont while drier air begins to shift from Ontario province keeping the rest of the region mostly dry. The forecast is on track with updates to sky grids for clearing in the St. Lawrence Valley. Have a great day. Previous Discussion...Surface cold front will settle just south of our forecast area this morning with lingering showers across central/s-central VT generally ending by 09-10Z. Winds will shift light nwly later this morning across the northern half of the forecast area along with partial clearing. Meanwhile, it continues to appear that shortwave trough across central Ohio will track enewd along the quasi-stationary frontal zone later today, bringing a renewed threat of rain showers across mainly Rutland and Windsor counties between 15-21Z. Indicated PoPs increasing back to 50-70% there, with potential for 0.15 to 0.30" rainfall across s-central VT. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler than yesterday, with highs 72-74F across the northern valleys with some sunshine, but closer to 68-72F across s-central VT with mainly cloudy skies and periods of rain showers during the mid-day/afternoon hours. All areas become mostly clear this evening from NW-SE. Looking at tranquil conditions for tonight and Monday with weak high pressure building in from Ontario. Appears we`ll reach crossover temperatures overnight and with wet soil conditions and light winds, have included fog in favored valley locations for tonight. Overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures climb into the 74-78F range for highs on Monday with winds remaining light NW at 5-10 mph with mostly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...We continue to highlight a generally dry period for the early part of next week as weak surface high pressure persists over the region and a frontal zone situated south of the area. Can`t rule out a few isolated afternoon showers with some weak impulses of shortwave energy passing through a fast westerly flow aloft, especially across southern Vermont closer to the frontal zone. Won`t see much in regard to wind and skies should be partly cloudy in general with a potential for isolated river valley fog Monday night. Temps Tuesday/Wednesday should warm above normal with 925mb temps of +16- 20C supporting highs well into the 70s with locally lower 80s possible in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Lows will be seasonal ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Good model consistency persists for the end of the work week showing a potent shortwave trough and vertically stacked low pressure system lifting out of the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon/night moving east of the benchmark either by Friday evening or Saturday morning. Some discrepancy cropped up with timing on this mornings 00z runs as compared to yesterday with the GFS now slower and the ECMWF/CMC more progressive. Kept with consistency and leaned towards the faster solutions which bring moderate to isolated heavy rain into the region Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Good surge of PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75" and generally weak flow below 500mb should support a decent soaking with the potential for a couple inches of rain. Given the dry antecedent conditions not expecting any hydro issues, but the progress of this system certainly bear monitoring through the week. Behind this system high pressure looks to return for Saturday with drier conditions and temps near normal. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Early AM fog and associated IFR conditions will dissipate at KMSS by 13Z or so. Likewise, localized MVFR ceilings at SLK/MPV will improve to VFR by mid-morning. Conditions will generally be improving to VFR across all of nrn NY and most of central/nrn VT. It appears that additional showers will develop and affect RUT during the late morning through the afternoon hrs, and periods of -SHRA with accompanying 3-5SM vsby can be expected locally at RUT. All sites clear out for tonight, and anticipate some IFR fog development at MPV/RUT/SLK/MSS tonight with moist soil conditions. Winds generally light north to northwest today at 3-8kt, then light and variable for the overnight period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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