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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 161402
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1002 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become quasi-stationary across east-central
New York into Massachusetts, with a continued potential of rain
showers across southern Vermont today. Further north, skies
will trend partly sunny with light north to northwesterly winds.
Temperatures will be a bit lower than yesterday, with valley
highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. Dry and seasonable
conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday, though there
will be some potential fog in favored valley locations during
the overnight hours. The next widespread rainfall is not
expected until Thursday or Friday as low pressure approaches
from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1002 AM EDT Sunday...RAP 500mb analysis shows shortwave
moving into northern NY. Cold front is currently positioned
along south-central Vermont and should expect some moisture to
overrun the boundary, allowing rain chances to increase across
south-central Vermont while drier air begins to shift from
Ontario province keeping the rest of the region mostly dry. The
forecast is on track with updates to sky grids for clearing in
the St. Lawrence Valley. Have a great day.

Previous Discussion...Surface cold front will settle just south
of our forecast area this morning with lingering showers across
central/s-central VT generally ending by 09-10Z. Winds will
shift light nwly later this morning across the northern half of
the forecast area along with partial clearing. Meanwhile, it
continues to appear that shortwave trough across central Ohio
will track enewd along the quasi-stationary frontal zone later
today, bringing a renewed threat of rain showers across mainly
Rutland and Windsor counties between 15-21Z. Indicated PoPs
increasing back to 50-70% there, with potential for 0.15 to
0.30" rainfall across s-central VT. Temperatures will be
somewhat cooler than yesterday, with highs 72-74F across the
northern valleys with some sunshine, but closer to 68-72F across
s-central VT with mainly cloudy skies and periods of rain
showers during the mid-day/afternoon hours.

All areas become mostly clear this evening from NW-SE. Looking
at tranquil conditions for tonight and Monday with weak high
pressure building in from Ontario. Appears we`ll reach crossover
temperatures overnight and with wet soil conditions and light
winds, have included fog in favored valley locations for
tonight. Overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures climb into the 74-78F range for highs on Monday
with winds remaining light NW at 5-10 mph with mostly sunny
skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...We continue to highlight a generally dry
period for the early part of next week as weak surface high pressure
persists over the region and a frontal zone situated south of the
area. Can`t rule out a few isolated afternoon showers with some weak
impulses of shortwave energy passing through a fast westerly flow
aloft, especially across southern Vermont closer to the frontal
zone. Won`t see much in regard to wind and skies should be partly
cloudy in general with a potential for isolated river valley fog
Monday night. Temps Tuesday/Wednesday should warm above normal with
925mb temps of +16- 20C supporting highs well into the 70s with
locally lower 80s possible in the St. Lawrence and Champlain
Valleys. Lows will be seasonal ranging from the upper 40s to upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Good model consistency persists for the end
of the work week showing a potent shortwave trough and vertically
stacked low pressure system lifting out of the Ohio Valley Thursday
afternoon/night moving east of the benchmark either by Friday
evening or Saturday morning. Some discrepancy cropped up with timing
on this mornings 00z runs as compared to yesterday with the GFS now
slower and the ECMWF/CMC more progressive. Kept with consistency and
leaned towards the faster solutions which bring moderate to isolated
heavy rain into the region Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning. Good surge of PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75" and generally weak flow
below 500mb should support a decent soaking with the potential for a
couple inches of rain. Given the dry antecedent conditions not
expecting any hydro issues, but the progress of this system
certainly bear monitoring through the week.

Behind this system high pressure looks to return for Saturday with
drier conditions and temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Early AM fog and associated IFR conditions
will dissipate at KMSS by 13Z or so. Likewise, localized MVFR
ceilings at SLK/MPV will improve to VFR by mid-morning. Conditions
will generally be improving to VFR across all of nrn NY and
most of central/nrn VT. It appears that additional showers will
develop and affect RUT during the late morning through the
afternoon hrs, and periods of -SHRA with accompanying 3-5SM vsby
can be expected locally at RUT. All sites clear out for
tonight, and anticipate some IFR fog development at
MPV/RUT/SLK/MSS tonight with moist soil conditions. Winds
generally light north to northwest today at 3-8kt, then light
and variable for the overnight period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos