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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281115
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a few passing light showers across southern counties
this morning, variably cloudy skies and mainly dry weather is
expected today. A storm system passing south of the region will
bring a period of light rains and snows to southern counties
later Thursday into Friday morning. Behind this system, dry and
colder weather arrives for Friday into Saturday before
temperatures briefly moderate for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 715 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast currently remains on
track. Only minor adjustments to sky cover were needed to nudge
toward observational trends. Have a great day!

Prior discussion...
Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered over the next 42
hours with a light/innocuous sfc pressure gradient bridged aloft
by robust zonal flow. A persistent synoptic scale inversion in
the 850-700 mb level will act to keep variably cloudy skies
intact across the much of the region through tonight under a
mainly light wind regime. A weak shortwave aloft passing across
the Capital District of NY into far southern VT and NH will
spark a few/scattered showers in those areas this morning,
otherwise dry weather is expected. Temperatures a multi-model
blend of solutions offering max readings in the 40s to locally
near 50 today, then 30s to around 40 for lows overnight.

On Thursday low pressure (remnants of once Hurricane Zeta) lift
quickly from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Decent isentropic lift blossoming in mid to upper levels will push
steady light rainfall into southern counties by later in the
afternoon. Boundary layer thermal profiles initially warm enough
such that most precipitation should fall as light rain, though
higher elevations of the southern Greens above 2 kft will likely see
a mix or changeover to wet snow toward early evening. Dry weather
continues further north. Highs to top out in the 40s, though slowly
fall from mid afternoon onward in southern counties due to wet-bulb
cooling once precipitation arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 AM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation will be ongoing Thursday
night over southern portions of the forecast area as several
low pressure systems converge over the Mid-Atlantic. Continues
to appear that northern NY and VT will be on the northern
periphery of the system, which will for the most part stay
shunted to our south by strong Canadian high pressure centered
to our northwest. The placement of the high will direct cold and
dry northerly flow in the low levels to our forecast area. This
will further limit impacts from the systems to our south as any
precipitation that spreads this far north will have quite the
dry layer to overcome before reaching the surface. In addition,
best frontogenetical forcing will remain along the baroclinic
zone well to our south, which latest guidance puts somewhere in
the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic to the southern New England
Coast.

By Thursday night, any residual rain will quickly transition to
light snow as cold air filters in from the north and temperatures
drop to below freezing.  Snowfall amounts will range from a dusting
up to an inch for northern Vermont, northern NY, and the Champlain
and Connecticut Valleys, and from 1 to 4 inches over higher
elevations of southern Vermont.  The highest summits of the southern
Greens could see 4+ inches, but this would be extremely localized.
Any lingering snow showers over southern VT will come to an end
Friday morning giving way to a blustery and chilly day.  Despite
increasing sun through the day, temperatures will only warm into the
mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 348 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure building in Friday night
through Saturday will keep the region dry to begin the weekend.
Lows Friday night will be very cold...teens for most of the
area into the low to mid 20s for valley locations. Highs on
Halloween (Saturday) will be in the low to mid 40s. As the
center of the high shifts east Friday night, return southerly
flow will increase and temperatures will begin to warm starting
Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase area-wide during
the day on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens with a front
approaching from the west. Highest winds will be channeled up
the Champlain Valley, where gusts 25 to 35 mph look reasonable.
Elsewhere, gusts will be in the 15 to 25 mph range. A front will
move through late Sunday through Sunday night, bringing a quick
shot of rain that will transition to snow overnight. With gusty
southerly/southwesterly winds accompanying the system, thinking
the valleys should get downsloped a good bit and thus precip
amounts will be very limited in lower elevations. After the
front clears the area, next work week will trend drier but will
remain chilly through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly a mix of BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR through
the forecast period at all terminals with higher terrain
obscured. Brief/passing light rain/snow showers possible through
15Z, mainly at KSLK/KMPV where intermittent IFR possible.
Otherwise dry weather expected. Winds generally light
south/southwesterly in the 3-8 kt range through the period.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...JMG