Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210015 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 715 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Expansive high pressure over the central and eastern US will lead to an extended period of dry and quiet weather through much of the week. After one more cold day, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. The next chance for any real precipitation will be over the weekend after the high pressure shifts northeastward and a low pressure system moves to the eastern US. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 710 PM EST Monday...Forecast remains on track early this evening. A broad ridge of high pressure currently draped across the Midwest will continue to shift eastward through the near term period. The resultant weakening pressure gradient and clear skies will allow for a decent radiational cooling night tonight with temperatures to drop below zero across the entire North Country; the coldest locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will approach -15F. Tuesday will see continuing cold, though it`ll be a little warmer than today, especially in the St Lawrence Valley, as winds turn light southwesterly. A weak upper shortwave trough in the northern stream will swing down through Quebec late in the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. This will mainly result in increasing clouds, though a few mountain snow showers will be possible overnight Tuesday night as the shortwave trough pushes across the region. Any snow will be light though due to a lack of deep moisture. Temperatures will likely hold steady or even rise a bit overnight Tuesday night, especially for areas from the Champlain Valley westward. East of the Champlain Valley lows will be in the single digits, while western areas will be in the 10 to 20 degree range overnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 334 PM EST Monday...Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Wednesday night with surface and upper level ridging over the area. Though a gradual warming trend will begin on Wed, temperatures Wed night will still be quite cold with ideal radiational cooling set up and fresh snowpack areawide. Maximum temperatures on Wed will range through the 30s, then minimum temperatures Wed night fall into the teens and single digits east of the Greens. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 334 PM EST Monday...Quiet weather will continue from Thursday through early Saturday. Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals. Next system to impact the North Country will then come into play later in the day Saturday, continuing through sometime Sunday. Low will track from the Ohio river valley on Friday night, and then south of our area Saturday night, and off the coast of Cape Cod on Sunday. Main differences between the GFS and ECMWF now is that the GFS is quicker to move the system east of the region. Otherwise, increasing clouds and chance for snow late in the day Saturday overspreads the north country Saturday night and Sunday. On Sunday night will have some wrap around snow showers in lingering northwesterly flow. At this time, looks like a lighter event for us with about a tenth to a half an inch of QPF yielding 1 to 5 inches of snow. Will continue to monitor this system as we get closer to the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions throughout the period with dry air mass and high pressure in control. Mid/high clouds will begin to spread over the area Tuesday morning, but ceilings will generally remain about 10kft. Winds will be light and variable tonight, averaging around 5 kts. Winds will shift into the S-SW Tuesday afternoon at 5-10kt. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Banacos

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