-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
747
FXUS61 KBTV 181833
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 212 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. A weak cold front will bring some shower chances to the
region tomorrow, with seasonable and mostly dry conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the week.

2. Showery and cooler conditions with beneficial rain are on
track for late this weekend into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 212 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry and seasonable conditions are expected to
continue across the region through the remainder of the week, with a
few chances for showers possible. High temperatures will generally be
in the 70s to low 80s the next several days. Another round of patchy
fog will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning with high
pressure overhead, but moisture will be limited which will influence
how much fog develops overnight. A decaying cold front will move
through the region tomorrow, bringing chances for scattered showers
and possible embedded thunderstorms, particularly across northern
New York. Showers and any thunderstorms that do develop look to be
rather unimpactful, with limited dynamics and instability to promote
any stronger thunderstorms. Shower chances may linger into the
evening, especially across the higher terrain before drier
conditions return to the region. Some showers cannot be entirely
ruled out on Thursday as a weak area of low pressure moving across
southern New England, but chances are fairly low and dry conditions
are expected to prevail across most of the area, with dry and
seasonable conditions continuing into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A deep 500 millibar trough is expected to dig into the
Great Lakes region Saturday night, leading to widespread showers
overspreading our area into Sunday. Expect showers will tend to be
orographically enhanced with this setup, but thankfully there are
are no signals for noteworthy moisture or heat to advect northward,
which limits potential for impactful/hazardous weather. As such, the
latest 48 hour rainfall probabilities of exceeding 1.00" of rain are
only in the 15 - 40% range with 2.00" probabilities below 10%.
Greatest chances of the higher rainfall amounts appear primarily in
the western foothills of the Adirondacks and westward into the St.
Lawrence Valley. Given the aforementioned meridional winds and
likely deep upper level low, would expect a fairly long duration
event with at least periods of showers. Generally this system should
bring plenty of cloud cover and cool air from the northwest by
Monday, such that daytime temperatures will trend temporarily below
normal before recovering towards midweek following the departure of
the trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
least through the next 12 hours at all sites with light and variable
winds across northern New York and Vermont. The return of radiation
fog is possible tonight around 06Z-14Z Wednesday, most likely IFR
level for a couple hours at the typical sites SLK and MPV. Due to
drier air mixing down this afternoon as compared to yesterday`s
increased moisture following the rain, the anticipated fog coverage
and longevity tonight is much less than last night. There may also
be more southwesterly winds just aloft during the prime fog hours
tonight from return flow, and clouds are likely to be on the
increase, especially across northern New York. Overall, we continue
to see mixed signals on when and for how long fog is going to
develop in the valleys, but expect it will be more isolated and
shorter duration than last night. On Wednesday, winds will increase
out of the south-southwest, resulting in channeled gusts at MSS 15-
20 knots by the afternoon hours. We also expect showers to arrive
from west to east across northern New York Wednesday morning,
arriving at MSS by 10Z-14Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kremer
AVIATION...Storm