Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030218 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 918 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A roller coaster ride of temperatures will occur over the upcoming seven days with a series of frontal passages and shortwave troughs finally exit to the east early next week. Periods of light to moderate snowfall will occur tonight through tomorrow over much of northern New York with lighter amounts in northern Vermont. From Thursday through Sunday we will see cold and occasionally breezy conditions with scattered mountain snow showers, followed by a significant warm up beginning on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 918 PM EST Tuesday...Dynamic support continues to increase over the area in response to a well defined shortwave trough over eastern Ontario. This feature is headed right for our area and atmosphere continues to moisten over northern New York and Vermont as dew points increase and some snow starting to be reported over northern New York. Areal coverage will continue to increase as the night wears on and forecast for accumulating snow overnight is on track. No big changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... A quick hitting snowfall for much of northern New York with lighter amounts into northern portions of Vermont is expected tonight. High confidence in a pocket of 4 inches of snowfall given the latest HREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast) probabilities, with mean 12 hour snowfall ending 7 AM tomorrow exceeding this value over much of Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York where a winter weather advisory has been issued. Leaning towards the finer scale model guidance that has heavier precipitation amounts than coarser models, chances are with the relatively small spatial footprint of moderate snowfall we could see some locally greater snowfall upwards of 6 inches where heavier snowfall rates set up for longest duration. In terms of the evolution of the snow, it looks like some light snow will break out from west to east between 9 and 11 PM in northern New York and may be a bit spotty with very dry low-level air helping evaporate much of the snow. Then there may be a break followed by moderate, steadier snowfall after midnight driven by significant warm air advection evidenced by veering wind profiles within an increasingly moist, deep layer ahead of a decaying clipper sliding through southwestern Quebec. Enhanced precipitation amounts upslope of the Adirondacks seem reasonable with a mean 30 knot 925 millibar westerly wind. Gradual top-down drying and resulting end of steady snowfall will occur during the morning as forcing for ascent weakens. However, additional light snow will may redevelop over this area, and possibly over a broader part of the North Country, with some upper-level divergence and further deepening of the cloud layer ahead of a weak cold frontal boundary. With much of the day featuring warm advection across the region, temperatures will recover to near or above normal. Then behind the cold front tomorrow night, we will see a return of colder and breezier conditions, although not nearly as intense as our recent arctic blast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 307 PM EST Tuesday...Quiet and seasonably cold weather continues on Thursday. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with persistent and modestly gusty north flow as we remain between strong upper Great Lakes high pressure and distant low pressure across Labrador. Highs to range through the 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 307 PM EST Tuesday...More or less a persistence forecast will be offered during late week into next weekend. The overall theme remains the same as pronounced downstream blocking over the North Atlantic westward into the Greenland/Davis Strait region fosters a seasonably deep upper trough across southeastern Canada and the Northeastern US. As such, late winter cold looks to continue through Sunday under persistent light to modest northerly flow. I`ve continued to mention some nominal snow shower chances across the northern mountains Thursday night into Friday with the passage of a weak surface trough feature. Thereafter mainly dry weather returns with no organized or significant precipitation events expected. Highs through the period to range from the upper teens through the 20s with lows mainly in the positive single digits and teens. Looking further out, there remains a building consensus the the downstream block will give way by Monday onward into next week with a significant moderation in temperatures as Pacific air streams eastward across the lower 48. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through about 04z with ceilings and visibilities lowering as clouds and snow move into most of the area. Between 04z and 12z visibilities will lower into the IFR category at KMSS, KSLK, KPBG, and KBTV before slowly improving into the MVFR and VFR categories by 18z. Visibilities at KMPV and KRUT will be VFR through the entire period as any snow is expected to be light and not have an impact on visibilities. Ceilings will be lowering into the 1500 to 3000 foot range at all locations between 04z and 12z and will slowly improve after 18z. Expect low level wind shear over parts of the area with strong westerly flow at 2000 feet tonight through 12z before winds aloft weaken during the remainder of the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ029- 030. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Evenson/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Evenson

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