Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030825 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 425 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Much cooler conditions have arrived behind a cold front with highs today in the 60s. Unsettled and unseasonably cool conditions will prevail for much of the next several days before a warming trend finally occurs. Daily chances for showers exist through the week as an area of upper level low pressure takes residence over the Northeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 425 AM EDT Saturday...A potent shortwave trough continues to move southward through New England this morning. This feature has helped produce elevated instability, and small showers and thunderstorms are moving through eastern Vermont early this morning on the leading edge of a 925-850 millibar front. As low level temperatures cool this morning, expect little or no additional showers during the day, with perhaps some areas of drizzle in northeasterly upslope flow before stratus clouds scatter out. The trough swinging through today is at the leading edge of a large upper level circulation that will be the main driver of our cooler weather through the weekend and beyond. At the surface, we have already seen impressive cold air advection. Upstream air mass to our north-northeast is rather chilly for early June, featuring sub-5400 meter 1000-500 millibar thicknesses nosing southward towards northern Maine. As the 1035 millibar high presses southward, the pressure gradient is inducing winds perpendicular to the temperature gradient, so we will not see much warming during the day. High temperatures will be largely in the 60s, including low 60s in much of eastern Vermont. For tonight the high to our northeast will continue weakening, but enough remaining northerly flow will exist to prevent a strong radiational cooling night. Therefore, currently not expecting a frost scenario even where temperatures near freezing around daybreak Sunday. Most locations will see temperatures dip about 10 degrees below normal, setting the stage for another cool day on Sunday. The main change with the latest forecast for Sunday is a farther west shield of rain showers on the western flank of the upper level low, so precipitation chances have come up in mainly Windsor and Orange counties at this time. Most model guidance has these areas seeing rain showers at times during the day as pieces of enhanced upper level spin rotate southwestward around the low, promoting light rain. It should be noted low predictability of the track of the upper level low suggests there could be a wobble back to the east or west with the idea of where rain may occur. Relatedly, cloud cover will be fairly dramatic with sunny skies away from this system`s influence. At this point, we have mainly sunny skies primarily in northern New York, with clouds peaking in Vermont roughly midday before peeling back to the east. The potentially thick low clouds and very cool air mass aloft could lead to even chillier temperatures than currently indicated. Generally highs tomorrow look similar to today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 404 AM EDT Saturday...As a low pressure system meanders east of Cape Cod, best chance for rainfall will be confined mainly east of the Green Mountains. While a quiet night is expected, temperature forecast is quite tricky. The core of the cold air aloft looks to be across eastern VT and southern New England. So temperatures aloft across our western zones including the St Lawrence valley will actually be warming overnight. There does appear to be a window for good radiational cooling as well, so while typical cold spots like SLK could dip as low as the mid 30s, locations like MSS and BTV might struggle to fall below the upper 40s. Monday looks to be a rather decent day with mostly dry conditions and highs a tad below normal in the mid 60s to low 70s. Shower chances do increase later in the day, however, out ahead of an approaching cold front. More on that in the long term discussion.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 404 AM EDT Saturday...The first full week of June will be dominated by the positive PNA and negative NAO teleconnections regime. This means that we will be on the cool side of the blocked flow regime. A reinforcing shot of cold air with origins from northern Canada will arrive late Monday, with high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday expected to be 10 to even 15 degrees below normal. For reference, typical highs for this time of the year are in the low to mid 70s. In other words, the forecast highs for Tuesday and Wednesday are in the upper 50s to mid 60s. It does not appear that we will be rivaling daily record low maximum temperatures, however, with the recorded coldest maximum temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. On and off showers will be likely and rather widespread in nature on Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to anomalously cold temperatures aloft that are more typical for early April according to the SPC sounding climatology. Thunder potential is non zero but very low with good low-level and mid-level lapse rates but little instability to tap into. As with cold upper low regimes, instability showers could lead to graupel. Otherwise, this stretch of cool weather will be a welcome relief after the record breaking heat just a few days ago. No impactful weather is expected. A warming trend appears likely for the latter half of the week with temperatures trending back to seasonal norms along with the return of sunshine.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Pockets of MVFR ceilings associated with stratus are currently expanding southwestward across the region. Main challenge is potential for lower cigs in IFR range, most favored at RUT and MPV given light winds, recent rainfall, and saturated bl conditions right before sunset. Conditions should improve areawide after 15z with mostly VFR expected Saturday afternoon onward. Gusty north winds at PBG and BTV near 20 knots should gradually subside through mid-morning Saturday. Then expect some increase in northerly winds during the afternoon at all sites with deepening boundary layer as remaining cloud cover thins and scatters, before becoming light after sunset. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Chai LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Kutikoff

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