Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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771 FXUS61 KBTV 160026 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 826 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will keep dry, quiet weather in place today. Wednesday will see increasing winds as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Widespread rainfall associated with the system is expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with showers tapering off. High pressure returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure centered south of New England will continue to slide eastward overnight in advance of the well advertised low pressure system for late Wednesday into Thursday. Tonight will remain tranquil though, featuring scattered high clouds and near seasonable temperatures. Pre-dawn lows will range from the upper 30s to low 40s as warm air advection and increasing southerly winds develop over the area after midnight. As such, temperatures will tend to level off during the pre-dawn hours. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Consistent with previous trends, models have continued to hold off on precipitation until late in the afternoon on Wednesday for western St Lawrence Valley and then quickly spreads eastward. Overall, thinking that Wednesday should be a pretty decent day with increasing high clouds and high temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s. Winds will increase late Wednesday morning into the afternoon as a southeasterly 40 kt 925mb jet moves across the area. At this time, thinking wind speeds Wednesday will be between 15-20 kts with gusts up to 35 knots possible for favorable downslope areas along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. The main forecast highlight of the period is the rapidly deepening Nor`easter off the southern New England coast for Wednesday night and during the day on Thursday. Overall, trends have not budged too significantly with this system with low pressure tracking out of the Great Lake weakening as the energy shifts to the dominant low south of southern New England and rapidity intensifying as it moves off towards the northeast. Thursday will be a raw and almost winter like day (who prefers snow to cold rain? *raises hand*) with temperatures maintaining or dropping slightly throughout the day into the low to mid 40s. The track of the system inside the benchmark will position the North Country in the favorable position for mesoscale ascent associated with pretty decent 700mb f-gen late Wednesday night into Thursday. This time frame between 00z and 12z Thursday will see the heaviest rainfall with 1-2" inches of rainfall expected with highest amounts across our southern zones. Chances for flooding still remain low with rivers near or at base flow, however sharp rises may be possible on quick responding rivers such as the East Branch of the Ausable and Otter Creek at Center Rutland. Localized accumulating snow may be possible for the highest peaks of the Adirondacks where forecast high temperatures barely climb above freezing. Additionally at this time NE winds will strengthen on the backside of the low Thursday morning and persist throughout the day around 15- 20 knots, with locally higher amounts in the channeled Champlain Valley between 20-25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots possible along the immediate lake shoreline. These winds will slowly abate after 00z, but still remain around 10 knots. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...Some wrap around moisture still over the region on Friday so expect showers to continue through at least the morning hours. Friday will be cool with maximum temperatures only reaching the mid 40s to lower 30s. From Friday afternoon through Sunday night drier weather is expected with surface and upper level ridging taking over for the Northeastern CONUS. A gradual warming trend takes over and by Sunday temperatures will warm above seasonal normals once again. Some overnight radiational fog is anticipated for Friday night and Saturday night with clear skies, calm winds, and plenty of moisture due to soaking rain on Wed and Thu. Another large scale system will impact the region in the Monday night through Tuesday timeframe, could be another system with a soaking rain. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, and fog is not anticipated overnight. Will see a gradual increase in mid-upper level clouds, mainly during the daylight hours Wednesday. After 20Z, it`s possible that leading bands of rain showers will reach MSS and SLK. Increasing pressure gradient will also result in developing moderate and gusty winds on Wednesday. At BTV, sustained southerly winds will reach 15kt by 17Z, with the prospect for gusts to 25kt during the afternoon hours. At RUT, gusts to 30kt are possible during the afternoon hours. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... There is the possibility for urban and small stream flooding Wednesday night through Thursday as moderate to heavy rainfall will move through the North Country. Looking at the Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts (MMEFS), a few locations including Center Rutland Ausable Forks could approach or exceed minor flood stage with rainfall amounts ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Widespread river flooding is not anticipated with all main stem rivers at base flow. Flashier rivers with quick responses are most likely to approach bankful but the rainfall will be spread out over a 30 hours period. Another fall concern for heavy rain events is all the leaf debris as we are now getting past peak color. Drainage may become less efficient as storm trains may become partially obstructed. Stay tuned for later forecasts to any updates to flooding concerns. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaRocca NEAR TERM...Banacos/LaRocca SHORT TERM...Clay/Duell/LaRocca LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Banacos HYDROLOGY...Clay

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