Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281115 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 715 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Other than a few passing light showers across southern counties this morning, variably cloudy skies and mainly dry weather is expected today. A storm system passing south of the region will bring a period of light rains and snows to southern counties later Thursday into Friday morning. Behind this system, dry and colder weather arrives for Friday into Saturday before temperatures briefly moderate for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 715 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast currently remains on track. Only minor adjustments to sky cover were needed to nudge toward observational trends. Have a great day! Prior discussion... Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered over the next 42 hours with a light/innocuous sfc pressure gradient bridged aloft by robust zonal flow. A persistent synoptic scale inversion in the 850-700 mb level will act to keep variably cloudy skies intact across the much of the region through tonight under a mainly light wind regime. A weak shortwave aloft passing across the Capital District of NY into far southern VT and NH will spark a few/scattered showers in those areas this morning, otherwise dry weather is expected. Temperatures a multi-model blend of solutions offering max readings in the 40s to locally near 50 today, then 30s to around 40 for lows overnight. On Thursday low pressure (remnants of once Hurricane Zeta) lift quickly from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. Decent isentropic lift blossoming in mid to upper levels will push steady light rainfall into southern counties by later in the afternoon. Boundary layer thermal profiles initially warm enough such that most precipitation should fall as light rain, though higher elevations of the southern Greens above 2 kft will likely see a mix or changeover to wet snow toward early evening. Dry weather continues further north. Highs to top out in the 40s, though slowly fall from mid afternoon onward in southern counties due to wet-bulb cooling once precipitation arrives. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 AM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation will be ongoing Thursday night over southern portions of the forecast area as several low pressure systems converge over the Mid-Atlantic. Continues to appear that northern NY and VT will be on the northern periphery of the system, which will for the most part stay shunted to our south by strong Canadian high pressure centered to our northwest. The placement of the high will direct cold and dry northerly flow in the low levels to our forecast area. This will further limit impacts from the systems to our south as any precipitation that spreads this far north will have quite the dry layer to overcome before reaching the surface. In addition, best frontogenetical forcing will remain along the baroclinic zone well to our south, which latest guidance puts somewhere in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic to the southern New England Coast. By Thursday night, any residual rain will quickly transition to light snow as cold air filters in from the north and temperatures drop to below freezing. Snowfall amounts will range from a dusting up to an inch for northern Vermont, northern NY, and the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys, and from 1 to 4 inches over higher elevations of southern Vermont. The highest summits of the southern Greens could see 4+ inches, but this would be extremely localized. Any lingering snow showers over southern VT will come to an end Friday morning giving way to a blustery and chilly day. Despite increasing sun through the day, temperatures will only warm into the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 348 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure building in Friday night through Saturday will keep the region dry to begin the weekend. Lows Friday night will be very cold...teens for most of the area into the low to mid 20s for valley locations. Highs on Halloween (Saturday) will be in the low to mid 40s. As the center of the high shifts east Friday night, return southerly flow will increase and temperatures will begin to warm starting Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase area-wide during the day on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens with a front approaching from the west. Highest winds will be channeled up the Champlain Valley, where gusts 25 to 35 mph look reasonable. Elsewhere, gusts will be in the 15 to 25 mph range. A front will move through late Sunday through Sunday night, bringing a quick shot of rain that will transition to snow overnight. With gusty southerly/southwesterly winds accompanying the system, thinking the valleys should get downsloped a good bit and thus precip amounts will be very limited in lower elevations. After the front clears the area, next work week will trend drier but will remain chilly through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly a mix of BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR through the forecast period at all terminals with higher terrain obscured. Brief/passing light rain/snow showers possible through 15Z, mainly at KSLK/KMPV where intermittent IFR possible. Otherwise dry weather expected. Winds generally light south/southwesterly in the 3-8 kt range through the period. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Duell LONG TERM...Duell AVIATION...JMG

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