Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 082356 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 756 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers across northern New York will end this evening with some partial clearing overnight as weak high pressure moves toward the region. A seasonable, mainly dry day is expected on Sunday before chances of rainfall increase once again Sunday night into Monday morning, especially in southern Vermont. Seasonably mild, though unsettled weather continues through the remainder of next week with highest shower chances on Tuesday and again by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 729 PM EDT Saturday...Showers, mainly across northern New York are ending as expected this evening. Skies will be mainly cloudy through the evening, but tend to clear out a bit overnight. Could be a little patchy fog mainly in St. Lawrence county where there was more rain today and it clears first. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Mainly dry weather returns area wide for Sunday under weak high pressure as variable cloud cover trends mainly cloudy toward mid/late afternoon. High temperatures to run some 2-4 degrees milder than today, mainly due to higher probabilities of partial sunshine through mid-afternoon - mainly mid 50s to lower 60s. By Sunday night well-advertised low pressure tracks eastward from the Ohio Valley states bringing an increased threat of light rains to the region. Consensus model blends continue to support a more easterly than northeasterly track with this system so a tiered south to north PoP gradient will be maintained across our area after midnight. Highest probabilities will generally lie across central and southern counties where isentropic lift will be greatest. Low temperatures quite similar to tonight - upper 30s to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled conditions persist through the first half of the work week, and while active and periodically wet, overall QPF and impacts are low. Aforementioned surface low pressure pulling east away from the New England coast will support showers across central/southern areas to begin the period Monday morning, with a brief lull in activity during the late morning before the trailing upper low rejuvenates convective showers in the afternoon. With the loss of daytime heating showers will generally wane later in the evening through the overnight, but blossom again Tuesday afternoon as the upper low tracks directly over the region. High pressure begins to build in Wednesday with a few showers possible across eastern Vermont. Temps through the period remain seasonally cool with highs ranging through the 50s, and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Pick of the week will be Thursday as surface high pressure and a ridge aloft build over the area. Clearing skies Wednesday night through Thursday are expected with highs back towards normal in the 60s. Little model consensus is seen going into Friday and the weekend with the timing and strength of another northern stream trough tracking through the Northeast. For now will offer chances for afternoon showers with temps seasonal. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 00Z Monday...Conditions are currently VFR areawide, and showers have ended across Northern New York. SLK may end up with some lower ceilings and or BR/FG, and have indicated this in the TAFs. Otherwise, BR possible at MSS but have not included at this time. After 12z skies will scatter out and winds will mainly be out of the west and under 10kts through the period. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG/Sisson NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Neiles

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