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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 221936
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorms will continue across much of the area
through this evening as a cold front crosses the region from west to
east. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures and dry weather can
be expected through mid week. The next chances for precipitation
will be Wednesday night onward as a low lifts through the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 remains in
effect until 10 pm.

Showers are becoming more numerous now across northern NY and far
northwestern VT. Have yet to see any lightning, but it shouldn`t be
long as the showers are making their way toward the better
instability that resides over much of VT. Although the best shear
still lies to the west, we do expect thunderstorms will strengthen
through the remainder of this afternoon/evening, with some possibly
turning severe. Gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall are the most
likely threats, although large hail is possible as well.

The thunderstorms are being driven out ahead of a cold front which
has already moved into the St Lawrence Valley. Temperatures are
already turning colder there; KMSS is currently 59 degrees, down
from 73 degrees from just over an hour ago. This will be the trend
through this evening, and expect the front to make it through our
entire forecast area by midnight. Temperatures and dewpoints will
both drop markedly, making for a much more comfortable sleeping
night. Lows will mainly be in the 40s to around 50.

Monday is going to feel very different than the past couple of days
as high pressure settles over the region. Highs will only be in the
lower to mid 60s, with spots potentially struggling to get out of
the 50s. We`ll start out with some cloud cover, but overall expect
increasing sunshine through the day. The clearing skies and light
winds will make for a good radiational cooling night Monday night,
and expect temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s across
much of the area. The usual colder locations in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom could see lower/mid 30s along with patchy frost.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday should be a practically perfect
weather day. Anticipate high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid
70s, light winds, partly cloud skies, and no chances for
precipitation. Overnight, southerly winds will be on the increase,
which will result in seasonably warm conditions (about 2 to 3
degrees above normal) in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...The extended forecast features strong
surface high pressure gradually shifting east while 500hPa high
builds and lifts northwards. With a stronger high in probabilistic
data, Wednesday and Thursday appear likely to be warmer and drier.
Yet, not wanting to make a complete swing towards dry weather, will
still advertise at least a chance of precipitation each day as a
warm front lifts northward, bringing warm, moist air into the
region. Fortunately, this air mass is not nearly as anomalous as the
last few air masses, and this should push temperatures only about 5
degrees above normal, into the upper 70s by Thursday.

The second shift being seen in forecast model outputs is the earlier
interaction of two shortwave troughs. As opposed to taking place
over New England, the trend is for interaction to happen far earlier
near the Mississippi River Valley. This results in a more sharply
defined 500hPa trough, and reasonably fits with the concept of a
stronger downstream 500hPa high. The trough is still negatively
tilted, though, and the frontal boundary will be well- defined, even
if it`s not as thermally sharp as some of the recent fronts. So
showers and storms appear likely on Friday, with a few being
moderate to locally heavy. Flow appears rather progressive, and
there could be a few orographic showers lingering on Saturday, but
the trend appears drier in that time frame.

Thereafter, the pattern becomes messier as 3 different shortwaves
appear to get entangled across the Intermountain West. These
interactions are challenging, particularly a week in advance. There
are hints that some moisture may stream over a ridge axis to our
west next Sunday night into Monday, and will advertise at least some
chances for precipitation. Changes in the upper ridge amplitude will
impact the placement of that precipitation. So we shall see how it
evolves over the coming days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
develop early this afternoon and will continue to intensify,
especially over VT, as a cold front crosses the area. Some of
these storms will be severe, with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph
and up to 1 inch hail possible. Local IFR also possible in any
thunderstorms. Expect fairly widespread MVFR ceilings along and
behind the front, with this low-level moisture to linger until
about 12z. Ceilings lift to VFR thereafter. Winds will be from
the south/southwest with gusts to 20 knots today, then become
west/northwest behind the front, gradually diminishing in
intensity to 12 knots or less towards 06Z. North/northwest
winds 5-10 kt expected after 12z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Hastings