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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 082356
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
756 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers across northern New York will end this evening with
some partial clearing overnight as weak high pressure moves
toward the region. A seasonable, mainly dry day is expected on
Sunday before chances of rainfall increase once again Sunday
night into Monday morning, especially in southern Vermont.
Seasonably mild, though unsettled weather continues through the
remainder of next week with highest shower chances on Tuesday
and again by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 729 PM EDT Saturday...Showers, mainly across northern New
York are ending as expected this evening. Skies will be mainly
cloudy through the evening, but tend to clear out a bit
overnight. Could be a little patchy fog mainly in St. Lawrence
county where there was more rain today and it clears first. Lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Mainly dry weather returns area wide for Sunday under weak high
pressure as variable cloud cover trends mainly cloudy toward
mid/late afternoon. High temperatures to run some 2-4 degrees
milder than today, mainly due to higher probabilities of partial
sunshine through mid-afternoon - mainly mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Sunday night well-advertised low pressure tracks eastward
from the Ohio Valley states bringing an increased threat of
light rains to the region. Consensus model blends continue to
support a more easterly than northeasterly track with this
system so a tiered south to north PoP gradient will be
maintained across our area after midnight. Highest probabilities
will generally lie across central and southern counties where
isentropic lift will be greatest. Low temperatures quite similar
to tonight - upper 30s to mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled conditions persist
through the first half of the work week, and while active and
periodically wet, overall QPF and impacts are low.
Aforementioned surface low pressure pulling east away from the
New England coast will support showers across central/southern
areas to begin the period Monday morning, with a brief lull in
activity during the late morning before the trailing upper low
rejuvenates convective showers in the afternoon. With the loss
of daytime heating showers will generally wane later in the
evening through the overnight, but blossom again Tuesday
afternoon as the upper low tracks directly over the region. High
pressure begins to build in Wednesday with a few showers
possible across eastern Vermont. Temps through the period remain
seasonally cool with highs ranging through the 50s, and lows in
the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Pick of the week will be Thursday
as surface high pressure and a ridge aloft build over the area.
Clearing skies Wednesday night through Thursday are expected
with highs back towards normal in the 60s. Little model
consensus is seen going into Friday and the weekend with the
timing and strength of another northern stream trough tracking
through the Northeast. For now will offer chances for afternoon
showers with temps seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 00Z Monday...Conditions are currently VFR areawide, and
showers have ended across Northern New York. SLK may end up
with some lower ceilings and or BR/FG, and have indicated this
in the TAFs. Otherwise, BR possible at MSS but have not included
at this time. After 12z skies will scatter out and winds will
mainly be out of the west and under 10kts through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/Sisson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles