Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 101945 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak ridge of surface high pressure will bring partially clearing skies to the region tonight along with areas of fog through sunrise. A cold front is then forecast to track through the area during the day on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon. Drier conditions and beautiful late summer weather follows for the end of the week into the weekend with unsettled weather possible again early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...Quiet and cool conditions are expected tonight into early Thursday as a weak ridge of surface high pressure continues to build over the region. Drier air aloft has slowly been eating away at low level moisture across the region today, and will continue to do so this evening into the overnight with slowly clearing skies expected. As skies clear, expect areas of dense river valley fog to form with boundary layer winds very light and temps falling into the 50s. After sunrise, a well defined surface cold front upstream across central Ontario/Quebec this afternoon will be in the vicinity of the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and is progged to track southeastward through the BTV CWA through the day. With the parent surface and upper level low well north of the region, this feature lacks any real good upper level support, low level shear and surface convergence so we`re not expecting a whole lot of fanfare with it`s passing. Forecast sounding do show some tall skinny CAPEs up to 800 J/kg so some isolated thunder is possible, but nothing should become strong enough to be severe. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Finally for Thursday night, any evening convection will diminish behind the front and with the loss of surface heating with skies clearing by midnight. Another cool night with temps in the 50s to locally 40s in the Adirondacks is expected, and there shouldn`t be much in the way of fog as the boundary should remain sufficiently mixed. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...With the cold front moving southeastward and away from the forecast area, dry weather and subsidence are expected to end out the week, with PoPs close to zero. Northerly flow will send cooler air from Canada into the North Country on Friday morning, which should provide a chill at first, but even the afternoon temperatures are expected to be below average. 850 mb temperatures are likely to be in the 6 to 9 degrees Celsius range, with near 10 C in southeastern Vermont, where the Canadian air has less time to impact. The GFS remains the most extreme with temperatures, both in the cold air mass and the lingering warmth. However, a layer of moisture in the 850 mb level and an upper-level trough are anticipated to produce some stratocumulus clouds, capping temperatures a bit. Clouds are likely to be the most widespread along the international border, where moisture is highest, and across eastern Vermont, where the trough will be heading. Went with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and breezy in the Champlain Valley. PoPs will remain low throughout Friday night, with some concern for fog as skies clear a bit, winds calm, and high pressure takes control. Lowered temperatures a bit in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont, accounting for most of the clouds staying north of these areas. Lows in the 40s and 50s throughout the North Country on Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Still a pleasant outlook for the weekend, with surface high pressure and dry weather. Aside from some fair weather cumulus, there is a potential battle of high pressure and lack of moisture against a 500 mb level cut-off low and its cyclonic flow transporting moisture from the Atlantic to provide a thicker cloud cover. Currently, it looks as though surface pressure and terrestrial dryness will be enough to keep the weekend pleasant and calm, with most of the atmospheric moisture staying to the east of our forecast area. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s into the 70s with light winds, at time from the north. The start of next week could feature a beneficial soaker as troughing persists with embedded shortwaves. Precipitable water values rise to about 1.20 inches late on Sunday as PoPs increase from west to east through Monday, topping out at 30-40% Monday night, and increasing to 40-50% on Tuesday. Currently no thunder in the forecast, but this will be something to monitor as the event grows closer. Highs are relatively unpredictable with a wide range of possible temperatures. Extended MOS guidance varies greatly from 80 on the ECMWF to 70 on the GFS for Burlington, Vermont, on Monday. This peaks temperatures in the 70s for most of the forecast area. Tuesday, kept temperatures on the lower end due to the expected rain and potential clouds. The northeasterly flow could also become fairly gusty through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Some lingering MVFR at KEFK for a few more hours, otherwise all sites will be VFR under a BKN-OVC deck through 00Z, then trending FEW-SCT for the overnight through the remainder of the period. After 05Z, LIFR fog is likely at KSLK/KEFK/KMPV through 10-12Z, then thereafter mid clouds increase ahead of a cold front that will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region from 15Z onward through the day. Any storms will be capable of reducing vsby to IFR/MVFR. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Lahiff

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