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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 051926
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers will be coming to end by evening and high
pressure will gradually build into the region. This will make
for a dry day on Thursday with plenty of sunshine, no
precipitation, and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
Friday should remain relatively dry as well with just a slight
chance of showers across central and southern Vermont Friday
afternoon and night. As high pressure remains over the region
Saturday and Sunday expect a warming trend with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation. The weather pattern looks to
change early next week with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...Mesoanalysis shows instability has
decreased across the area and deep layer shear is on a
weakening trend as well. The instability combined with dynamic
support from shortwave trough lifting into Canada to created
isolated to scattered showers today, but now that these key
parameters are weakening and/or moving away from the area to
threat of additional showers will gradually decrease as the
afternoon wears on. Winds will stay a bit on the gusty side
until sunset...then taper off. Lower dew points advecting into
the region tonight should allow lows to drop into the 50s with
some upper 40s in the mountains. Dry weather continues on
Thursday as high pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in
the 70s to around 80 with plenty of sunshine and less wind than
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall looking at a relatively
quiet period with high pressure remaining over the area. A weak
shortwave trough will try to move into the region Friday
afternoon and evening and may produce a few showers over our
southern areas, but will keep precipitation chances in the
slight chance category. Friday will be a little warmer with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows Thursday night and
Friday night generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry and seasonably warm conditions
are expected on Saturday due to anticyclonic flow as an upper
level trough axis shifts east of the North Country. Some
lingering clouds, and even some showers, are possible early in
the day, most likely over central and eastern Vermont, followed
by clearing skies by afternoon. Arrival of plentiful mid-level
dry air and light wind speeds should promote beautiful weather
for the remainder of the weekend.

As surface high pressure moves to our east Sunday night, somewhat
breezier conditions will develop as a much warmer air mass advects
into the North Country with the flow aloft switching from west to
southwest. From Monday through at least Wednesday, this new weather
pattern will bring the return of above normal temperatures, with
highs generally topping out in the upper 80s in valley locations.
Expect humid conditions especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
dew points likely rising above 70 in many locations outside of the
mountains. The combination of heat and humidity will promote greater
instability, and with that, chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Current model guidance suggests on Monday only isolated thunderstorm
activity mainly tied to the higher terrain, whereas Tuesday may have
more widespread thunderstorms due to close proximity of weak cold
front. Strong thunderstorms are possible, but at this time wind
shear looks low enough to preclude a severe weather threat. In the
absence of a strong forcing mechanism for precipitation, chances of
rainfall are held below 50% during this time period. Compared to
Tuesday, Wednesday will likely be have lower precipitation chances,
especially if surface high pressure moves overhead as indicated by
the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the
entire period. Isolated showers will come to an end by 22z and
no precipitation is expected for the remainder of the period.
Any clouds will generally be above 4000 feet, but should only be
scattered in nature. Gusty west to southwest winds will continue
through this evening with gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range.
Winds will taper off after 00z and remain under 10 knots for the
rest of the period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Evenson