Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140143 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 943 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will move through Monday, accompanied by some clouds and a few spotty light showers. The next chance for widespread rainfall comes Wednesday as a low pressure system moves through the area. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals through Wednesday, then turn noticeably cooler Thursday and Friday behind the low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 942 PM EDT Sunday... Did not change much as forecast is on track. With clear skies tonight, dropped the low temperatures by a couple degrees. Also slightly increased cloud cover tomorrow with passing front. Previous discussion...Skies will remain clear most of the night as surface high pressure begins to slide eastward and away from our area. Will see some increasing clouds in our western zones towards early Monday morning. Southerly return flow will increase behind departing high. Despite mainly clear skies, with increasing winds temperatures will be prevented from bottoming out. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. During the day Monday a cold front will cross our area from west to east. Low pressure system passes well to our North across northern Canada. Low-level and mid-level instability will increase over northern NY and VT Monday in response to the cold pool moving overhead. The increased instability along with weak forcing associated with the boundary will allow for a few light showers to develop during the day. Moisture is limited and upper-level support is weak. QPF will be very limited with only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch expected. The best chances for any measurable precip will be over northern NY in the Southern Saint Lawrence valley where low-level moisture will be slightly enhanced downstream of Lake Ontario. Temperatures do fall a bit behind the boundary, so there will be an east- west gradient in high temperatures Monday. Northern NY can expect temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s, VT will see slightly warmer readings in the low to mid 60s. Showers will be ending during the evening hours and another ridge of surface high pressure builds over the area. Temperatures Monday night will be a bit cooler than tonight, mainly lower to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday looks rather quiet as ridging aloft along with surface high pressure builds across the North Country throughout the day. With this we can expect mostly clear skies and light winds and clear skies thought things could seasonably cool as a cold core upper level low continues to push eastward. Cloud cover moves back into the area Tuesday night ahead of the next system keep overnight lows from dropping too far below freezing. High temperatures for Tuesday will be in the 50s, while overnight lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...The long term will be active to start as a strong surface low moves across the Great Lakes during the day Wednesday. A LLJ (30-40Kt) moves in rather quickly from the south during the day, bringing some breezy conditions during the early part of the day. As the low crosses the lakes during the day, a secondary low forms along the triple point East of DELMARVA. As stated by the previous shift, the concern with a double barrel low feature likes this is when does the secondary low becomes the dominant feature. While most models still continue to agree on the low formation during the day on Wed, beyond that, there is still disagreement on the track of the low. The GFS, which was the outlier in earlier runs, is lining up better with other models in bringing the low across the Cape Cod region, while the ECMWF is pulling the low further inland. Right now in both scenarios, the western half the CWA will looks to see lighter bands of precipitation. While the eastern half, Eastern VT in particular, could see heavier bands of precipitation with preliminary QPF amounts of 1-1.5" with some localized possible 2" through Thursday morning. As the low moves up the coastline Thursday, wrap around moisture will bring some showering activity, mainly across the higher elevations throughout the day and into the evening. The northerly flow will keep the temps in the higher elevations near 0C, so some snow mixed into the showers is looking possible Thursday during the afternoon and evening. Beyond this, ridging moves back in Friday and dryer and quieter conditions return as next weekend looks to see a return to daytime highs back into the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected for the 24 hr TAF period. The pressure gradient will increase tomorrow ahead of a cold front with a slight chance of light rain. Skies should be mostly clear until the front arrives, then ceilings will drop to 6,000 to 10,000 ft behind the front. Light and variable winds will increase tomorrow morning and remain southerly increasing up to 12 kts by afternoon, gusting up to 20 kts at BTV and MSS. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Hammond/Neiles SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Hammond/Neiles

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