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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 101945
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of surface high pressure will bring partially clearing
skies to the region tonight along with areas of fog through sunrise.
A cold front is then forecast to track through the area during the
day on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through the afternoon. Drier conditions and beautiful late summer
weather follows for the end of the week into the weekend with
unsettled weather possible again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...Quiet and cool conditions are expected
tonight into early Thursday as a weak ridge of surface high pressure
continues to build over the region. Drier air aloft has slowly been
eating away at low level moisture across the region today, and will
continue to do so this evening into the overnight with slowly
clearing skies expected. As skies clear, expect areas of dense river
valley fog to form with boundary layer winds very light and temps
falling into the 50s.

After sunrise, a well defined surface cold front upstream across
central Ontario/Quebec this afternoon will be in the vicinity of the
Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and is progged to track
southeastward through the BTV CWA through the day. With the parent
surface and upper level low well north of the region, this feature
lacks any real good upper level support, low level shear and surface
convergence so we`re not expecting a whole lot of fanfare with it`s
passing. Forecast sounding do show some tall skinny CAPEs up to 800
J/kg so some isolated thunder is possible, but nothing should become
strong enough to be severe. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Finally for Thursday night, any evening convection will diminish
behind the front and with the loss of surface heating with skies
clearing by midnight. Another cool night with temps in the 50s to
locally 40s in the Adirondacks is expected, and there shouldn`t be
much in the way of fog as the boundary should remain sufficiently
mixed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...With the cold front moving southeastward
and away from the forecast area, dry weather and subsidence are
expected to end out the week, with PoPs close to zero. Northerly
flow will send cooler air from Canada into the North Country on
Friday morning, which should provide a chill at first, but even the
afternoon temperatures are expected to be below average. 850 mb
temperatures are likely to be in the 6 to 9 degrees Celsius range,
with near 10 C in southeastern Vermont, where the Canadian air has
less time to impact. The GFS remains the most extreme with
temperatures, both in the cold air mass and the lingering warmth.

However, a layer of moisture in the 850 mb level and an upper-level
trough are anticipated to produce some stratocumulus clouds, capping
temperatures a bit. Clouds are likely to be the most widespread
along the international border, where moisture is highest, and
across eastern Vermont, where the trough will be heading. Went with
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and breezy in the Champlain
Valley.

PoPs will remain low throughout Friday night, with some concern for
fog as skies clear a bit, winds calm, and high pressure takes
control. Lowered temperatures a bit in the Adirondacks and southern
Vermont, accounting for most of the clouds staying north of these
areas. Lows in the 40s and 50s throughout the North Country on
Friday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Still a pleasant outlook for the
weekend, with surface high pressure and dry weather. Aside from some
fair weather cumulus, there is a potential battle of high pressure
and lack of moisture against a 500 mb level cut-off low and its
cyclonic flow transporting moisture from the Atlantic to provide a
thicker cloud cover. Currently, it looks as though surface pressure
and terrestrial dryness will be enough to keep the weekend pleasant
and calm, with most of the atmospheric moisture staying to the east
of our forecast area. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s into
the 70s with light winds, at time from the north.

The start of next week could feature a beneficial soaker as
troughing persists with embedded shortwaves. Precipitable water
values rise to about 1.20 inches late on Sunday as PoPs increase
from west to east through Monday, topping out at 30-40% Monday
night, and increasing to 40-50% on Tuesday. Currently no thunder in
the forecast, but this will be something to monitor as the event
grows closer.

Highs are relatively unpredictable with a wide range of possible
temperatures. Extended MOS guidance varies greatly from 80 on the
ECMWF to 70 on the GFS for Burlington, Vermont, on Monday. This
peaks temperatures in the 70s for most of the forecast area.
Tuesday, kept temperatures on the lower end due to the expected rain
and potential clouds. The northeasterly flow could also become
fairly gusty through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Some lingering MVFR at KEFK for a few
more hours, otherwise all sites will be VFR under a BKN-OVC deck
through 00Z, then trending FEW-SCT for the overnight through the
remainder of the period. After 05Z, LIFR fog is likely at
KSLK/KEFK/KMPV through 10-12Z, then thereafter mid clouds
increase ahead of a cold front that will bring scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to the region from 15Z onward through
the day. Any storms will be capable of reducing vsby to
IFR/MVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Lahiff