Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251405 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1005 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure building over the region today will provide the North Country with a dry but chilly end to the weekend with wet weather returning late tonight through Monday, perhaps starting as a little snow across the northern Adirondacks and high peaks. After a cool and rainy start to the work week, quieter weather is expected for the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure generally dominating and temperatures just slightly below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1003 AM EDT Sunday...The stubborn low clouds entrenched across much of the region are finally beginning to evaporate. Looking out the window in the office, we see some breaks finally developing and satellite trends show we should be going partly to mostly sunny within the next hour or two. This will be short-lived as mid-level clouds will stream into the region from the southwest yielding filtered sunshine through the afternoon hours. The forecast remains on track and just needed to make a few adjustments to cloud cover and diurnal temperature trends. .Previous Discussion...Southern edge of high pressure building over Quebec this morning will drift over the North Country today with morning low clouds gradually scouring out by noon as the subsidence inversion breaks. Filtered sunshine is expected thereafter for the remainder of the day through an increasing mid- level cloud deck advecting in from the west ahead of our next system, with highs chilly, and well below normal in the 40s area- wide with light northerly winds. Tonight begins tranquil with aforementioned high pressure slowly moving northeast over Maine and mid-clouds continuing to increase from the west. Low level flow backs to the southeast early Monday morning in response to an approaching weak low and attending warm front from the southwest, which will spread precipitation into northern New York during the pre-dawn hours and eventually across the entire CWA by mid-morning. Forecast ptype remains in question at the onset of precipitation as soundings continue to show warm air advection riding in aloft over a shallow cold layer at the surface. Low levels look to be dry enough though for temps to wet-bulb down which negates the warm nose aloft and presents a more isothermal sounding. Could there be some isolated ice pellets for a very brief period at the onset, sure. Am I confident enough to mention it in the forecast, no. Confidence is much higher that any frozen precipitation will be snow or a rain/snow mix for a couple of hours across the Adirondacks and the high peaks before sunrise, before transitioning to a cold rain as the boundary layer warms into the 40s from the surface all the way to the summits. Any snow accumulation will be less than a half inch, and will melt shortly after it accumulates, if it accumulates at all. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...Light rains/showers taper off over time Monday evening/night as best dynamics exit northeast and surface front clears southward. Precipitation amounts mainly focused east and primarily during the evening hours where an additional 0.05 to 0.15 inches will be possible, especially in elevated terrain. Then variable clouds with intermittent sunshine looks reasonable for Tuesday as high pressure noses into the region. Lows Monday night to range through the 30s with corresponding Tuesday highs in the lower to mid 40s under light northwesterly post-frontal flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...Generally quiet weather is expected for most of the mid to late week time frame. This morning`s GFS solution remains a clear outlier among most other medium range solutions (GEM, UKMET, ECMWF) in regard to late week system and will disregard once again with this package. High pressure to be the primary influence on regional weather conditions and with confluent upper flow southern stream energy lifting out of the gulf coastal states will trend to shunt east more than north over time. As such I`ll maintain a persistence forecast from Wednesday through Friday with chances of precipitation confined mainly across southern counties Thursday night into Friday to account for potential remnants of any tropical energy passing off to our south and the passage of a northern stream cold front. Behind these features it still appears that next weekend will be cool and dry under high pressure. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...MVFR is holding tough from the Adirondacks east this morning, but should scour out in the next few hours. Thereafter mid-clouds approach from the west and thicken in the afternoon, becoming BKN-OVC after 00Z. Rain/snow and MVFR/IFR approach late in the period toward 09-12Z Monday from the SSW. Winds will be 10kts or less through the period, out of the north today, and southeast tonight. Outlook... Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff

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