Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 032353 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 653 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A period of light snow is expected once again tonight, mainly across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks as a weak disturbance passes through the region. Fair and seasonably cold weather continues into Thursday before more light snows arrive across northern counties Thursday night into Friday morning with minor accumulations expected. On and off light snow showers or flurries likely continue in the northern mountains into this weekend before a trend toward milder weather occurs by next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 646 PM EST Wednesday...A few light snow showers are moving through the area this evening as a weak upper-level wave approaches. These showers are not expected to last long over lower elevations, but will persist into the night for higher elevations. Previous discussion follows... Variable clouds continue this evening as another weak disturbance tracks east-southeasterly from the eastern Great Lakes through New York. Best coverage of light snows from this feature to be focused across the western slopes of the Adirondacks into the SLV where some additional minor accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible. Further east only scattered light snow showers/flurries expected into this evening with negligible amounts. By later tonight the southeast extension of a prominent arctic surface high across central Canada edges into our region with skies trending partly cloudy to mostly clear as low temperatures bottom out in the upper single digits into the teens. Changeable weather then continues Thursday into Thursday night. The first half of the day should remain partly/mostly sunny on the edge of the aforementioned ridge off to our northwest. However, the p- gradient tightens between this feature and an evolving deep trough pinwheeling west/southwestward from eastern Canada as robust downstream blocking continues to build across the North Atlantic/Greenland region. This will create increasingly gusty west to northwesterly winds from 15 to 30 mph by afternoon. Mean 925 hPa thermal profiles continue to cool, so afternoon highs will trend colder than today - mainly upper teens to mid 20s, slightly milder far south. Toward evening, and especially by Thursday night the trough continues to build across the region as deepening mid-level moisture profiles sag southward over time. This will allow a general re-blossoming of light snows across northern counties, particularly the northern mountains into the northern Champlain Valley where some minor accumulations of a few inches will be likely in elevated terrain. Snow ratios likely to be quite high once again with a large fluff factor, though minimal impacts are expected. Lows remain seasonably cold in the single digits to around 10 above. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...Cold, with brisk northwest winds on Friday. Wind chill values in the teens below zero appear likely early Friday morning. Then warming into the teens to lower 20s and still plenty breezy. A high elevation snow event will continue into Friday, though the intensity should gradually wane, and then shift towards the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Froude numbers appear to be critical to supercritical, as opposed to being blocked, which would not favor much of the way of snow in the lower valleys. Northern slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens will be the primary regions for additional snowfall of 1-2", with the rest of the region a light coating to a half inch at most. A reinforcing shot of cold air will advect into the region. Another night of temperatures ranging from 0 and 10 appears likely. Friday night will not be as windy, though. Still, low wind chill values will make frostbite a concern for exposed skin in prolonged outdoor time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...A blocked upper low will continue to meander near the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Moisture will continue to wrap around this and its mature surface cyclone in northwest flow. Another bout of snow showers, mainly over the higher summits is expected for Saturday. Temperatures generally remain in the upper teens to mid 20s with overnight lows in the single digits to lower 10s again. By Sunday, upper flow finally begins to become progressive once more. We will see a drying trend as surface high pressure and then upper ridging build overhead during the new week. Southwest flow and moderating temperatures under an increasingly favorable solar angle will usher in a nice warming trend. Some precipitation will translate east towards North Country on Monday night into Tuesday as warm air advects across the region and a northern stream shortwave trough shifts into the region. Deep layer ridging will continue to build, likely pushing temperatures into the mid 40s to near 50 by midweek. Another system lies on the horizon of the late week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Mainly overcast skies expected through 10Z with cloud bases generally between 1000 and 4000 ft AGL. Will see some light snow showers overnight as a weak upper wave goes through, especially over the northern Adirondacks. After 10Z, general improvement to widespread VFR conditions expected as any lingering snow showers come to an end. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then becoming northwesterly 6-12 knots after 12Z. Some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots are possible mainly after 17Z. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Friday: VFR. Chance SN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Duell

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