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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 032353
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
653 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of light snow is expected once again tonight, mainly
across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks as a weak
disturbance passes through the region. Fair and seasonably cold
weather continues into Thursday before more light snows arrive
across northern counties Thursday night into Friday morning with
minor accumulations expected. On and off light snow showers or
flurries likely continue in the northern mountains into this
weekend before a trend toward milder weather occurs by next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 646 PM EST Wednesday...A few light snow showers are moving
through the area this evening as a weak upper-level wave
approaches. These showers are not expected to last long over
lower elevations, but will persist into the night for higher
elevations. Previous discussion follows...

Variable clouds continue this evening as another weak
disturbance tracks east-southeasterly from the eastern Great
Lakes through New York. Best coverage of light snows from this
feature to be focused across the western slopes of the
Adirondacks into the SLV where some additional minor
accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible. Further east
only scattered light snow showers/flurries expected into this
evening with negligible amounts. By later tonight the southeast
extension of a prominent arctic surface high across central
Canada edges into our region with skies trending partly cloudy
to mostly clear as low temperatures bottom out in the upper
single digits into the teens.

Changeable weather then continues Thursday into Thursday night. The
first half of the day should remain partly/mostly sunny on the edge
of the aforementioned ridge off to our northwest. However, the p-
gradient tightens between this feature and an evolving deep trough
pinwheeling west/southwestward from eastern Canada as robust
downstream blocking continues to build across the North
Atlantic/Greenland region. This will create increasingly gusty west
to northwesterly winds from 15 to 30 mph by afternoon. Mean 925 hPa
thermal profiles continue to cool, so afternoon highs will trend
colder than today - mainly upper teens to mid 20s, slightly milder
far south. Toward evening, and especially by Thursday night the
trough continues to build across the region as deepening mid-level
moisture profiles sag southward over time. This will allow a general
re-blossoming of light snows across northern counties, particularly
the northern mountains into the northern Champlain Valley where some
minor accumulations of a few inches will be likely in elevated
terrain. Snow ratios likely to be quite high once again with a large
fluff factor, though minimal impacts are expected. Lows remain
seasonably cold in the single digits to around 10 above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...Cold, with brisk northwest winds
on Friday. Wind chill values in the teens below zero appear
likely early Friday morning. Then warming into the teens to
lower 20s and still plenty breezy. A high elevation snow event
will continue into Friday, though the intensity should gradually
wane, and then shift towards the western slopes of the
Adirondacks. Froude numbers appear to be critical to
supercritical, as opposed to being blocked, which would not
favor much of the way of snow in the lower valleys. Northern
slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens will be the
primary regions for additional snowfall of 1-2", with the rest
of the region a light coating to a half inch at most.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will advect into the region. Another
night of temperatures ranging from 0 and 10 appears likely. Friday
night will not be as windy, though. Still, low wind chill values
will make frostbite a concern for exposed skin in prolonged outdoor
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...A blocked upper low will continue
to meander near the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Moisture will continue
to wrap around this and its mature surface cyclone in northwest
flow. Another bout of snow showers, mainly over the higher
summits is expected for Saturday. Temperatures generally remain
in the upper teens to mid 20s with overnight lows in the single
digits to lower 10s again.

By Sunday, upper flow finally begins to become progressive once
more. We will see a drying trend as surface high pressure and then
upper ridging build overhead during the new week. Southwest flow and
moderating temperatures under an increasingly favorable solar angle
will usher in a nice warming trend. Some precipitation will
translate east towards North Country on Monday night into Tuesday as
warm air advects across the region and a northern stream shortwave
trough shifts into the region. Deep layer ridging will continue to
build, likely pushing temperatures into the mid 40s to near 50 by
midweek. Another system lies on the horizon of the late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Mainly overcast skies expected through 10Z
with cloud bases generally between 1000 and 4000 ft AGL. Will
see some light snow showers overnight as a weak upper wave goes
through, especially over the northern Adirondacks. After 10Z,
general improvement to widespread VFR conditions expected as any
lingering snow showers come to an end. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, then becoming northwesterly 6-12 knots after
12Z. Some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots are possible mainly
after 17Z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Duell