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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 140143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
943 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move through Monday, accompanied by some
clouds and a few spotty light showers. The next chance for
widespread rainfall comes Wednesday as a low pressure system
moves through the area. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals through Wednesday, then turn noticeably cooler Thursday
and Friday behind the low.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 942 PM EDT Sunday...

Did not change much as forecast is on track. With clear skies
tonight, dropped the low temperatures by a couple degrees. Also
slightly increased cloud cover tomorrow with passing front.

Previous discussion...Skies will remain clear most of the night
as surface high pressure begins to slide eastward and away from
our area. Will see some increasing clouds in our western zones
towards early Monday morning. Southerly return flow will
increase behind departing high. Despite mainly clear skies, with
increasing winds temperatures will be prevented from bottoming
out. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

During the day Monday a cold front will cross our area from
west to east. Low pressure system passes well to our North
across northern Canada. Low-level and mid-level instability will
increase over northern NY and VT Monday in response to the cold
pool moving overhead. The increased instability along with weak
forcing associated with the boundary will allow for a few light
showers to develop during the day. Moisture is limited and
upper-level support is weak. QPF will be very limited with only
a trace to a few hundredths of an inch expected. The best
chances for any measurable precip will be over northern NY in
the Southern Saint Lawrence valley where low-level moisture will
be slightly enhanced downstream of Lake Ontario. Temperatures
do fall a bit behind the boundary, so there will be an east-
west gradient in high temperatures Monday. Northern NY can
expect temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s, VT will see
slightly warmer readings in the low to mid 60s.

Showers will be ending during the evening hours and another
ridge of surface high pressure builds over the area.
Temperatures Monday night will be a bit cooler than tonight,
mainly lower to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday looks rather quiet as ridging
aloft along with surface high pressure builds across the North
Country throughout the day. With this we can expect mostly clear
skies and light winds and clear skies thought things could
seasonably cool as a cold core upper level low continues to push
eastward. Cloud cover moves back into the area Tuesday night
ahead of the next system keep overnight lows from dropping too
far below freezing. High temperatures for Tuesday will be in the
50s, while overnight lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...The long term will be active to start
as a strong surface low moves across the Great Lakes during the
day Wednesday. A LLJ (30-40Kt) moves in rather quickly from the
south during the day, bringing some breezy conditions during
the early part of the day. As the low crosses the lakes during
the day, a secondary low forms along the triple point East of
DELMARVA. As stated by the previous shift, the concern with a
double barrel low feature likes this is when does the secondary
low becomes the dominant feature. While most models still
continue to agree on the low formation during the day on Wed,
beyond that, there is still disagreement on the track of the
low. The GFS, which was the outlier in earlier runs, is lining
up better with other models in bringing the low across the Cape
Cod region, while the ECMWF is pulling the low further inland.
Right now in both scenarios, the western half the CWA will looks
to see lighter bands of precipitation. While the eastern half,
Eastern VT in particular, could see heavier bands of
precipitation with preliminary QPF amounts of 1-1.5" with some
localized possible 2" through Thursday morning.

As the low moves up the coastline Thursday, wrap around
moisture will bring some showering activity, mainly across the
higher elevations throughout the day and into the evening. The
northerly flow will keep the temps in the higher elevations near
0C, so some snow mixed into the showers is looking possible
Thursday during the afternoon and evening.

Beyond this, ridging moves back in Friday and dryer and quieter
conditions return as next weekend looks to see a return to
daytime highs back into the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected for
the 24 hr TAF period. The pressure gradient will increase
tomorrow ahead of a cold front with a slight chance of light
rain. Skies should be mostly clear until the front arrives, then
ceilings will drop to 6,000 to 10,000 ft behind the front.
Light and variable winds will increase tomorrow morning and
remain southerly increasing up to 12 kts by afternoon, gusting
up to 20 kts at BTV and MSS.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hammond/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Hammond/Neiles