Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241432 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1032 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather will continue through the weekend with scattered to overcast highs clouds associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia as it moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. Only very light precipitation is expected from this system across the North Country. Much of next week is expected to be dry with near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1032 AM EDT Sunday...Some changes were made, mainly to dew points and weather, for this update. Fog and low stratus has proven difficult to dislodge in northern portions of New York and Vermont. Forecast soundings and trends in observations do show improving conditions will likely occur finally by early this afternoon. Additionally, pockets of sprinkles denoted by deeper moisture on the GOES-16 satellite day phase distinction product continue to roll eastward through portions of central and eastern Vermont and northern Adirondacks on the northern edge of a clearing line. Have added a larger area of sprinkles and removed mention of showers as measurable looks unlikely with a very pronounced dry layer just above the ground. Locally dry air at the surface was noted in portions of south central Vermont with dew points in the 30s, which may persist through the day although it will likely modify a bit. Otherwise, forecast is pretty good shape at this time. Previous Discussion... Quiet weather will continue across our region through Monday. Some light showers associated with moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia are reaching parts of Southern Vermont, while most of our area is under some high clouds from this system. Despite the high cloud cover, we`ve had some fog form with calm conditions and only thin clouds in place. Some of the radar reflectivities edging northward don`t appear to be reaching the ground with dry air mass still in place. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds will persist across the region today, before clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Highs today will be similar to yesterday in the low 70s north to mid 60s south. Lows tonight will be similar to last night in the 40s to low 50s. Monday will start our stretch of dry weather with near seasonal temperatures as remnants of Ophelia pull away from the CONUS. Some fair weather cumulus over the high terrain is expected in the afternoon, but otherwise a mainly sunny day is expected with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s once again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Strengthening high pressure over Quebec, Canada, will be the main feature in control of our weather for the early week, keeping conditions dry. Mostly clear skies from a dry air mass and strong subsidence will be perfect for radiational cooling Monday night, dropping temperatures into the chilly mid to upper 30s for the cold spots of the Adirondacks, and 40s elsewhere, all in all fairly seasonable for the second half of September, and we are not concerned about widespread frost. This will also allow for radiation fog in the typical valleys as easterly winds decrease. Tuesday will also see seasonable highs in the mid to upper 60s under a beautiful sunny sky. There could be a light northwesterly breeze, but generally a pleasant, quiet day for the North Country expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...It`s copy and paste weather through next weekend with conditions similar to the short term expected throughout the long term: high pressure, not a drop of precip, mostly sunny days providing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and mainly clear nights with lows 30s to lower 50s, moderating slightly each night. Radiation fog possible to likely each night, especially in the typical river valleys. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12 Monday...Some fog developed overnight, and will be lifting by about 14z at all sites. Light showers have lifted further north in our area than anticipated, but really low impact very light showers only. Winds will be variable at 4-8kts during the daylight hours and mainly calm overnight areawide. Will have to consider potential for fog again tonight, but have not included in the forecast at this time. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Neiles is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.