Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051926 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 326 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers will be coming to end by evening and high pressure will gradually build into the region. This will make for a dry day on Thursday with plenty of sunshine, no precipitation, and temperatures right around seasonal normals. Friday should remain relatively dry as well with just a slight chance of showers across central and southern Vermont Friday afternoon and night. As high pressure remains over the region Saturday and Sunday expect a warming trend with above normal temperatures and no precipitation. The weather pattern looks to change early next week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...Mesoanalysis shows instability has decreased across the area and deep layer shear is on a weakening trend as well. The instability combined with dynamic support from shortwave trough lifting into Canada to created isolated to scattered showers today, but now that these key parameters are weakening and/or moving away from the area to threat of additional showers will gradually decrease as the afternoon wears on. Winds will stay a bit on the gusty side until sunset...then taper off. Lower dew points advecting into the region tonight should allow lows to drop into the 50s with some upper 40s in the mountains. Dry weather continues on Thursday as high pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 with plenty of sunshine and less wind than today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall looking at a relatively quiet period with high pressure remaining over the area. A weak shortwave trough will try to move into the region Friday afternoon and evening and may produce a few showers over our southern areas, but will keep precipitation chances in the slight chance category. Friday will be a little warmer with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows Thursday night and Friday night generally in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday due to anticyclonic flow as an upper level trough axis shifts east of the North Country. Some lingering clouds, and even some showers, are possible early in the day, most likely over central and eastern Vermont, followed by clearing skies by afternoon. Arrival of plentiful mid-level dry air and light wind speeds should promote beautiful weather for the remainder of the weekend. As surface high pressure moves to our east Sunday night, somewhat breezier conditions will develop as a much warmer air mass advects into the North Country with the flow aloft switching from west to southwest. From Monday through at least Wednesday, this new weather pattern will bring the return of above normal temperatures, with highs generally topping out in the upper 80s in valley locations. Expect humid conditions especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, with dew points likely rising above 70 in many locations outside of the mountains. The combination of heat and humidity will promote greater instability, and with that, chances for showers and thunderstorms. Current model guidance suggests on Monday only isolated thunderstorm activity mainly tied to the higher terrain, whereas Tuesday may have more widespread thunderstorms due to close proximity of weak cold front. Strong thunderstorms are possible, but at this time wind shear looks low enough to preclude a severe weather threat. In the absence of a strong forcing mechanism for precipitation, chances of rainfall are held below 50% during this time period. Compared to Tuesday, Wednesday will likely be have lower precipitation chances, especially if surface high pressure moves overhead as indicated by the GFS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the entire period. Isolated showers will come to an end by 22z and no precipitation is expected for the remainder of the period. Any clouds will generally be above 4000 feet, but should only be scattered in nature. Gusty west to southwest winds will continue through this evening with gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range. Winds will taper off after 00z and remain under 10 knots for the rest of the period. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Evenson

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