-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
495
FXUS61 KBTV 280218
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1018 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds and chances for showers will be possible this
evening, with additional showers and a few rumbles of thunder are
possible overnight as a warm front lifts across our region.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow, with some thunderstorms capable of producing localized
very heavy rainfall. Drier and warmer weather returns for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 702 PM EDT Friday...Have increased surface SSE winds and
wind gusts in the Champlain Valley overnight. Given moderately
strong p-gradient and northward shift of most of the
precipitation, should see less stable PBL conditions overnight
and good valley channeled flow overall. Should see 15-25 mph
sustained winds and gusts 30-35 mph at times, especially near
and over Lake Champlain. A Lake Wind Advisory is already in
effect for this evening and tonight. As a consequence of the
winds, temperatures may also stay a few degrees warmer
overnight, with lows in the lower 60s likely at BTV by daybreak
Saturday. Previous discussion follows.

Cloud cover continues to increase across the North Country this
afternoon, with a few chances for some showers this evening as
a warm front begins to lift across the region to the north. The
forecast has not changed much from the previous shift, with
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected overnight and
through the day tomorrow. The precipitation tonight will be
driven by warm air advection and some elevated instability, with
a few rumbles of thunder possible overnight tonight. In addition
to the showers, strong southerly flow and breezy conditions
will be possible, especially across Lake Champlain. Temperatures
overnight tonight will be fairly mild, only dropping into the
upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.

By tomorrow morning, the frontal boundary will be to our north, with
the region sitting in the warm sector. A cold front will look to
push through during the day tomorrow, bringing some additional
convection throughout the day. A few stronger showers may be
possible, but the exact locations of any stronger convection are
tricky to pinpoint. SPC currently clips the forecast area with a
Marginal Risk for severe, with most of the area just expecting
general thunderstorms. The best convergence and axis of heaviest
rainfall remain to our north, with current rainfall forecasts
showing amounts ranging anywhere from 0.25 to 1.0 inches near the
international border throughout the forecast period. The environment
will still be quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes, with
PWAT values of 1.5 inches and deep warm layer cloud depths, so a
localized and isolated flash flooding threat will still be possible,
especially across the higher terrain. WPC continues to maintain a
Marginal Risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for thus time frame.
Drier air looks to quickly move into the region towards the
afternoon, effectively limiting the heavy rain threat and most
precipitation chances. Daytime highs tomorrow will largely depend on
the timing of precipitation and how quickly the cold front pushes
through, with highs in the 70s to low 80s possible tomorrow
afternoon. The drier conditions will continue into Saturday night,
with lows in the upper 50s and 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Weak surface high pressure and building
mid-level ridging will support fantastic weather on Sunday.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s while
dewpoints remaining in the mid 50s to lower 60s. By nighttime,
west- northwest flow will switch back to the south as the mid-
level ridge pushes east. Low temperatures will be somewhat above
seasonal normals in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 957 PM EDT Friday...Models in good agreement that a warm
and humid night will follow Monday`s hot daytime temperatures.
Low-level winds will remain out of the south Monday night in
advance of robust shortwave expected to be translating ewd
across the central Great Lakes. This should allow for overnight
lows near 70F in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and
generally mid-upper 60s elsewhere across the North Country. It
appears that 700-500mb height falls and onset of cyclonic mid-
level flow will occur between 06-12Z Tuesday, and therefore kept
the idea of scattered to numerous showers across the region
toward daybreak.

During the daylight hours Tuesday, may see an early round of
shower activity followed by additional showers and thunderstorms
as mid-level trough and associated cold front cross the region
from W-E during Tuesday afternoon. Included a chance of
thunderstorms, with highest chances in the afternoon/early
evening time frame on Tuesday. Should see PBL dewpoints climb
to the upper 60s to lower 70s in advance of approaching cold
front, and stuck with these values shown in latest NBM. If some
breaks of sun occur between the two rounds of precipitation,
expect to see max temperatures in the mid- upper 80s. Will need
to watch for potential strong to locally severe thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as sfc-6km shear is potentially 35-40kt with moderately
strong forcing and potential for moderate SBCAPE. Will also need
to watch for locally heavy rainfall, with latest GFS indicating
high PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range Tuesday afternoon.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will gradually settle back
closer to seasonal norms for early July with lower chances for
diurnally driven shower activity. Highs generally lower 80s in
valley locations Wednesday and Thursday, with more modest
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. A northern
stream trough and secondary cold front may shift through our
region Thursday and Thursday night, allowing for cooler
Independence Day conditions with highs in the mid-upper 70s
based on current indications. Chances for showers Thursday and
Friday currently around 30 percent.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Most sites outside of SLK/EFK will continue
to see VFR conditions through 12Z. SLK may see intermittent MVFR
for the next hour or so before lower clouds should scour out. Rain
showers will track across the international border over the
next 2 to 3 hours with some heavier showers briefly reducing
visibilities to MVFR at EFK. Winds will be the main terminal
impact with south winds 10-15 knots and gusts to near 20 knots
at all sites, with locally higher gusts at BTV/PBG. Winds will
continue to be gusty through the taf period. LLWS is expected
overnight at all sites through 12Z. By 12Z, model guidance
suggests ceilings will trend towards MVFR at all sites from rain
showers with some guidance suggesting near or at IFR ceilings
below 1000 ft agl at BTV/MPV/EFK/SLK by 18Z. Given the time of
year, confidence is low in achieving IFR ceilings, so trended
ceilings only to 1000-2000 ft agl for tomorrow afternoon. These
low ceilings will be associated with periodic showers and
possibly an embedded thunderstorm tomorrow, particularly between
13-20Z. Ceilings will improve towards VFR at MSS/SLK and then
eastward beyond 22Z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The threat for excessive rainfall and the potential flash
flooding threat has decreased across much of the North Country
tonight into Saturday. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Saturday with localized heavy
rainfall possible in the stronger storms. Very isolated flash
flooding is possible, especially if a mountain basin has several
direct hits from thunderstorms on Saturday. Any flood threat
quickly ends by sunset on Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain tonight.
Winds have increased towards 25 to 35 knots this evening and
will continue through the overnight hours, with even higher
gusts possible. Waves are expected to build to 3 to 6 feet
across the lake tonight and continuing into Saturday morning.
Lake wind and wave conditions are expected to slowly improve
toward Saturday afternoon, but still looking at 2-3 feet waves
on the broad lake with south winds 15-20 knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Danzig
HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV
MARINE...NWS BTV