Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 170804
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will slowly move through the region this morning
and afternoon bringing with it near to slightly below average
temperatures. This weekend will see rain move in as low pressure
lifts northeastward from the Ohio Valley into New York and New
England. Next week will see a return to drier conditions and above
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...This morning will bring a dry cold front
out of Canada will just a remote chance of precipitation this
morning. Hi-res models show small window after sunrise for a
brief, passing shower, but any area that sees anything will be
looking at a trace amount at best. Expect the winds to shift to
the north this morning as the front slides south through the
CWA. Along with the wind shift, a drier airmass with cooler
temps which will lead to highs this afternoon about 5-7 degrees
cooler than Wednesday, but still right near seasonal normals.

Thursday night should be dry as well as skies clear and temps
cooling quickly into the low to mid 30s, and possibly mid 20s in
parts of the Dacks, so we`ll need to continue to monitor for frost
potential but no fog is expected.

Dry weather continues for Friday as high pressure settles in behind
the front. While skies will remain relatively cloud free,
especially across the northern counties, northerly flow will
continue, for most of the day, keeps high temps again right near
seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure remains over the
area for Friday and Friday night and the dry weather continues.
Northerly winds will keep temperatures slightly below seasonal
normals. On Friday night a low pressure system will approach
from the Ohio River valley, and accompanying warm front will
also lift Northward towards our forecast area. We will have
increasing clouds and moisture, but most precipitation should
hold off till during the daytime on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...Aforementioned low pressure system
will lift Northeastward from the Ohio river valley along with
accompanying warm frontal system. North country should have
scattered rain showers with this system for Saturday and
Saturday night with most areas having at least some
precipitation. Some showers will linger into Sunday behind
departing low pressure system. Temperatures will be cooler than
seasonal normals with clouds and precipitation for much of the
weekend. After Sunday, GFS and ECMWF diverge quite a bit
leading to low confidence headed into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday... Expect VFR Conditions overall for the
period. Exceptions will be KRUT with MVFR ceilings over the next
few hours and KSLK/KBTV/KMPV possibly seeing MVFR as well right
around sunrise for an hour or two as front to our north begins
to sag south. Any MVFR ceilings should lift through the morning
hours as drier air moves in with VFR conditions expected through
the remainder of the period.

LLWS is expected over the next few hours at all stations with
decent pressure gradient and 35 to 40 kt jet at 2000ft and
lighter surface winds. Southerly winds overnight will veer to
the NW around 5-10 kt as front moves through the area between
11-13z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Verasamy



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