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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190750
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area today, bringing another
round of gusty showers to the region. There will be one more round
of scattered showers Saturday afternoon, then dry weather will
return for Sunday. The weekend will be quite cool with a stretch of
below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regional radar shows an approaching area of precipitation stretching
from Lower Michigan to western Ohio early this morning. Clouds will
increase especially across western NY.

An area of low pressure within a large trough will move across
northern Ontario today. Surface analysis shows a cold front
extending into the Ohio Valley with a weak wave of low pressure over
Ohio this morning. A southeast wind will continue to increase as the
cold front approaches the region this morning. A 40kt low level jet
ahead of the cold front may result in downsloping with wind gusts 35-
40mph along the Chautauqua Ridge by late morning. Elsewhere, breezy
southeast winds with gusts up to 30 mph are expected. The cold front
will move across the region and rain showers will move from west to
east across the forecast area today. The secondary low over Ohio
this morning will become absorbed into the surface trough and weaken
as it moves east today. Showers will lose intensity with rainfall
amounts between 0.10-0.20 inches across far western NY to less than
0.10 inches across the Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes region.
Steady rain showers will move east of Lake Ontario this afternoon
with rainfall amounts averaging 0.10 inches. A southerly upslope
component may intensify rainfall on the southern side of the Tug
Hill to which rainfall amounts may reach 0.20 inches. Winds will
veer to the southwest behind the frontal boundary today. Southwest
wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected across the Niagara Frontier and
higher elevations south of Lake Ontario. Southeast winds east of
Lake Ontario may result in downslope winds on the north side of the
Tug Hill early this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible
prior to the frontal passage.

Cold air advection will begin immediately behind the frontal passage
today. As rain ends from west to east across western NY, scattered
rain showers may linger across the lake plains into early evening.
Showers will end east of Lake Ontario this evening. Dry conditions
expected the rest of the night. Cold air advection weakens overnight
with 850mb temperatures down to -4C by Saturday morning. It will
feel brisk Friday night with lows in the 30s.

The upper level trough will be overhead while an embedded shortwave
trough moves across the region Saturday. Cold air aloft and surface
heating will result in steepening lapse rates and instability
showers will develop from late morning through the afternoon.
Westerly winds will increase with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph Saturday
afternoon. It will be chillier than recent days with highs reaching
the upper 40s to low 50s, mid 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair uneventful weather will be in place throughout this period...as
temperatures will remain several degrees below normal levels. The
mundane details...

The deep cyclonic flow that will have been in place for days leading
into this period will temporarily give way to a more zonal flow...
while expansive high pressure over the nations mid section will
steadily push east across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. This will
all but guarantee fair dry weather for our region...although there
will be one `fly in the ointment` worth keeping an eye on.

A moisture starved cold front will push southwards across our region
late Sunday night. Not only will this passage by pcpn free...but the
colder air in its wake will only glance the Eastern Lake Ontario
region while taking aim on the New England states.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unlike the previous several days...this bulk of this period is
guaranteed to be unsettled and ultimately much chiller...including
the potential for some accumulating wet snow.

A robust...Pacific based shortwave will cross the Upper Mississippi
valley on Tuesday...while strong frontogensis over the Upper Great
Lakes will lead to a wavy sfc frontal boundary that will extend to
the southern plains. Meanwhile...high pressure wedged along the
Eastern seaboard will be pushed out to sea. The resulting deepening
southerly flow between the two systems will start to direct rich
GOMEX moisture across the Ohio valley towards the Lower Great Lakes.
While the start of Tuesday will be pcpn free...some rain is expected
to work its way into the forecast area during the course of the
afternoon and evening. Guidance packages remain at odds though over
the amount of phasing that could take place between the
aforementioned Pacific based energy within the sub tropical jet and
an already established upper level storm system in the vcnty of
James Bay. From the 00z guidance...the GFS is a little faster and
much more aggressive with phasing than the more trustworthy ECMWF.
This would lead to rain moving in faster on Tuesday with QPF in the
vcnty of a quarter inch across the western counties. Will lean on a
compromise between the ECMWF and ensemble solution which will yield
Tuesday pops ranging from low chc over the Finger lakes and much of
the Eastern Lake Ontario region to high likely near Lake Erie.

As the strong shortwave energy digs across the Upper Great Lakes
Tuesday night...the wavy frontal boundary will ease across our
forecast area. While there will be a near 100% chance for some
rain...the amount of phasing and the placement of the last wave
along the sfc boundary will determine whether we experience
widespread showers or a period of steadier soaking rain. This swath
of rain could also be delayed by some six hours if the notably
slower ECMWF solution works out...placing the steadiest pcpn over
our region late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Will thus `drag
out feet` with the lowering of pops early Wednesday by aiming abv
most of the guidance packages.

In the wake of the wavy frontal boundary...colder air will make its
way across our region during the second half of Wednesday. As is
typically the case...it will be a race between the cold air and the
residual low level moisture as to the potential for a little wet
snow. Previous guidance packages were more impressed with the
potential for a little accumulation...but the models have since
backed off with that train of though. In any case...mixed pcpn
should be tapering off across our area later Wednesday and Wednesday
night with brisk northwest winds and falling temperatures reminding
us of the season that is still clearly visible in our rear-view
mirrors.

Sfc based high pressure just to our west on Thursday should then
promote fair dry weather...although it will be on the chilly side of
normal with the mercury struggling to get out of the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR flight conditions are across the region with the
exception of MVFR conditions at KART early this morning. A cold
front is approaching the region with an area of showers
extending from eastern Michigan to western Ohio. Rain showers
will enter far western NY after daybreak and move east through
the day. Overall, light showers are expected. Steady showers
will reach KROC by 16z and KART by 19z.

Flight conditions will deteriorate from west to east, mainly behind
the steadier showers today. Mainly low-end MVFR conditions with the
exception of IFR at KJHW and a brief period of IFR at KBUF this
afternoon. Low confidence in IFR at KBUF at this time. Flight
conditions will improve shortly after showers end from west to east
late this afternoon through evening.

Southeast winds will continue to increase ahead of the cold front
this morning. Winds will veer to the southwest-west behind the cold
front with gusts 25 to 35 mph.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/VFR CIGS with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes today. South winds
will increase ahead of the front this morning, then veer to the
southwest and west this afternoon behind the front. Initially,
southeast winds will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions on the
east end of Lake Ontario this morning. Waves will mainly be offshore
until winds veer to the west this afternoon. Small Craft Conditions
will likely be met behind the cold front on the eastern end of Lake
Erie including the Upper Niagara River today.

Winds will remain elevated this weekend, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The strongest
winds will likely be in the afternoon and evening each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM EDT this evening
         for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT
         tonight for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM
         EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK