Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011520
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1020 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crossing the Mid Atlantic region will send notably
milder air into our region through the weekend into next week. An
area of low pressure will bring some rain Saturday, before fair dry
weather returns for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will supply us with
fine weather today...as the return flow around its backside will
allow temperaturewise to quickly rebound to between 45 and 50 for most
areas. The fast return to above normal temperatures today will be
accompanied by a wealth of sunshine...although cirrus will
overspread the far western counties later this afternoon.

Clouds will the lower and thicken across the region tonight ahead of
a weak open shortwave trough lifting out of the lower Ohio Valley.
Broad ascent will support mainly rain as the system approaches the
region late tonight. Some of the higher terrain could see a mix with
wet snow, but no accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening shortwave trough will move across the eastern Great
Lakes region Saturday. Warm air advection with increasing moisture
will spread across the region. Light, scattered rain showers will be
ongoing across the western Southern Tier Saturday morning. Forcing
will be maximized ahead of the mid-level trough axis resulting in
showers ending from west to east through the day. Showers may reach
Buffalo and Rochester Saturday morning but amounts will be very
light. Showers will expand in coverage across central NY and end
across western NY Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts of up to a
tenth of an inch are expected from the western Finger Lakes to the
southern Tug Hill region. Cloud cover and showers will counteract
the warm air advection with temperatures a few degrees warmer than
Friday, mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Mid-level moisture will linger through the first half of Saturday
night so clouds will likely linger before clearing out Sunday.
Ridging will build into the region Saturday night through Sunday
night and dry and warm conditions are expected across the region.
Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s to low to mid 60s
across the lake plains Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm weather will continue across the eastern Great Lakes region
early next week. A strong ridge will be in place across the east
coast while a long wave trough remains across the Pacific Northwest
to Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday. A dry, southwest flow between
these two features will keep the region warm and dry during this
time. Confidence is high that temperatures will reach at least 60
across the lake plains Monday. Downslope winds will likely push
temperatures into the upper 60s to 70 in places like Rochester and
Dansville. Locations on the higher terrain will likely see the upper
50s. Moving into Tuesday, confidence lowers for high temperatures
because of timing issues with the next system. Due to the strength
of the ridge, sided with a warmer solution at this time.

Speaking of the next system, the longwave trough will approach the
Great Lakes region mid-week. Moisture advection ahead of a cold
front will increase chances of showers Tuesday through Wednesday.
There remains uncertainty in the extent and intensity of the
showers. It is possible a wave of low pressure rides along the front
which would bring steady showers to the region. Eventually the cold
front will move across the region later in the week. Temperatures
will cool but remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place regionwide through this evening...
then lowering cigs overnight will lead to MVFR conditions across the
Southern Tier. The lowering cigs tonight will also be accompanied by
the chance for showers regionwide.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR cigs with showers exiting to the east. IFR cigs
will be possible early across the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and
Finger Lakes.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southerlies are anticipated into the weekend
as the surface high moves off the coast and an upper level
disturbance approaches from the southern plains.

&&

.CLIMATE...
February 2024 was a warm month with below normal snowfall across
western and north central NY. Average temperatures for the three
climate sites either tied for the warmest February on record or came
in as the 2nd warmest on record.

                         Average Temperature(F)

                February 2024                  Record

Buffalo         34.8(Tied for warmest)        34.8 (2017)

Rochester       34.7(2nd warmest)             35.5 (2017)

Watertown       31.2(Tied for warmest)        31.2 (1981)


Temperature Period of Record
Buffalo 1871 - Present
Rochester 1871 - Present
Watertown 1949 - Present


Another round of potentially record breaking warmth is expected
across the region Sunday through Tuesday. Current record highs for
our three major climate sites are as follows:

          Sunday 3/3  Monday 3/4  Tuesday 3/5

Buffalo     70/1974    63/1974     68/2004

Rochester   65/2008    69/1974     67/2004

Watertown   59/2008    56/1974     67/1976

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/Thomas/TMA
CLIMATE...HSK


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