Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161402
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger today and keep temperatures below normal,
with the exception of the North Country where some breaks of sun
will develop. A frontal boundary will then remain stalled just
south of the area Monday through Wednesday with a chance of a
few showers at times across the Southern Tier. Weak high
pressure over southeast Ontario will keep the rest of the area
mainly dry with temperatures near average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A convectively enhanced wave of low pressure and vorticity maxima
will move eastward into southeastern NY this afternoon. Showers
associated with this feature will exit our region, but there
still will be a stalled frontal boundary near the NY/PA border
which will potentially serve as a focus for more showers this
afternoon and evening. After this wave there is relatively poor
agreement among high resolution guidance, but some members do
show another wave tracking along the stalled frontal boundary
tonight while other guidance keeps our area mainly dry.

Otherwise, there will be areas of drizzle and fog south of Lake
Ontario for the remainder of this morning. Most of the drizzle
will end this afternoon, but low clouds and stratus will last
through most (if not all) of the daylight hours. The only
exception is across the North Country where there will be some
clearing.

The extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures below average
today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, and even
some upper 50s along the south shore of Lake Ontario with a
northeast breeze off the cold lake. The North Country has the best
chance of seeing some sunshine today, and if this materializes
temperatures will rise into the lower 70s in that area. Lows tonight
will drop into the mid 50s in most areas, with upper 40s to lower
50s for the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface based ridging will be in place across of the Lower
Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, the next convectively enhanced short
wave is forecast to ride along a fairly diffuse frontal boundary to
our south which may sneak in a few showers or an isolated stronger
storm across the Western Southern Tier. Otherwise, a majority of the
forecast area should remain precipitation free on Monday. Highs will
also climb to near normal or a little above normal for this time of
year, which is in the mid 70s.

With the frontal boundary displaced fairly far to our south over
southern Pennsylvania Monday night it should be for the most part a
dry night, although there still remains a bit of uncertainty in the
various model guidance on how close these convectively enhance
shortwaves will come to our forecast area. Have kept chance POPs
across the Western Southern Tier overnight to account for this
uncertainty. Look for lows temperatures overnight in the 50s by day
break.

Tuesday through Wednesday, not much will change with the diffuse
frontal boundary to our south and weak surface ridging over the
eastern Great Lakes. Again, chances for showers or a strong storm
will largely remain across the Western Southern Tier with each
passing convectively enhanced shortwave. Highs both Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows Tuesday night in
the 50s.

Wednesday night, two distinct shortwaves, one over the mid
Mississippi Valley and the other upstream of the lead shortwave over
Wyoming are forecast to phase and potentially bringing a soaking
rainfall to the region during the later half of this week. More on
that in the Long Term disco... Otherwise, the first half of the
night should remain dry with conditions slowly deteriorating
overnight into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned shortwave over the mid Mississippi Valley and
associated surface low will potentially bring a soaking rainfall to
the area during this period. While model solutions are not in
complete absolute unison on the timing or duration of the mentioned
moisture-laden system, the details in regards to PWATs are and
approach 2 inches, along with strong upper level forcing, good
deformation, low level convergence, and even some elevated
instability all seem present.

With this in mind, PoPs continue to be nudged upwards and focused on
the Thursday to Thursday night time frame when the preponderance of
guidance suggests the most likely time for the passage of the system
exists. That said, with the aforementioned concurrence in forcing
mechanisms, heavy rain wording was added to the forecast.

Beyond Thursday night, there is significant uncertainty on when this
system will exit and the eventual return to dry weather occurs.
Depending on which model guidance you prefer, Friday could be a
complete wash out or a slow turn to drier weather occurs as we head
into the weekend. Only time will tell, for now have added chance
POPs for Friday to account for all the uncertainty in the guidance
for now.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wave of low pressure will move into southeastern NY this
afternoon, with widespread rain ending as this system exits by
16Z. Scattered light showers and areas of drizzle will linger
through at least the morning hours. The majority of the area
will dry out this afternoon, although a few showers may linger
across the Southern Tier into this evening.

Variable conditions will continue through 18Z with flight
conditions ranging from IFR to VFR. This is due to a northerly
upslope flow behind a cold front which will enhance low level
moisture and stratus. Some MVFR/IFR CIGS will likely continue
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier through tonight.
Some patchy fog will continue for the remainder of this morning
with local IFR VSBY, mainly across the higher terrain where
stratus intersects the hilltops and also along the south shore
of Lake Ontario. Patchy fog may re-develop tonight across the
Southern Tier with local IFR VSBY.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal zone will stall from the Ohio Valley to PA today through
Wednesday while weak high pressure settles into southeast Ontario
and southern Quebec. This will keep a weak pressure gradient across
the eastern Great Lakes, with light winds and flat wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/Fries
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock


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