Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 040015
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
815 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region early this week with
a slow warming trend during the days and cooler nights. A sharp
cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and much
cooler conditions late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad high pressure will remain over the area through Tuesday. High
level moisture will continue to wrap back into the area on the
northwest side of the coastal low tonight and the first half of
Tuesday. For the most part, expect this cloud cover to be fairly
thin with more cloud cover spilling over southeast portions of the
area.

Overnight temperatures look a touch warmer than last night, but
inland areas still should drop into the mid to upper 30s with a
few readings near freezing possible. Actual amount of incoming
cloudiness will impact potential for frost tonight. Greatest
risk for frost will be for interior portions of the eastern Lake
Ontario region, therefore issue a frost advisory for this area.
Somewhat lesser risk elsewhere (depending on incoming cloud
cover) to keep mention of frost to patchy and hold off on any
frost/freeze headlines.

High temperatures Tuesday a bit warmer than today, in the lower to
mid 60s, especially if higher cloud cover pulls away from the area
during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Remnant mid-level low pressure from what was Hurricane Ian a few
days ago will continue to spin overhead of the Mid-Atlantic states
heading into Tuesday night. Additionally, just upstream of the lower
Great Lakes, a mid level low will be in the midst of getting
engulfed into the next longwave trough. Meanwhile across the the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley upper level ridging will be
sandwiched between the two aforementioned features. As the next
trough in place over the upper Great Lakes digs southeast, the
entire upper level pattern will shift east throughout the midsection
of the week. By the end of this period, the previously mentioned
incoming trough will be nearing to push its axis across the lower
Great Lakes.

Overall this upper level pattern will promote dry weather Tuesday
night through most of Thursday as upper level ridging will promote a
bubble of high pressure to span across the Ohio Valley and lower
Great Lakes before pushing east into the Mid-Atlantic states
Thursday. This being said, temperatures will begin to rebound into
the upper 60s and lower 70s as the region will be on the west side
of the ridge axis where southwesterly winds will support plenty of
warm air advection both Wednesday and Thursday.

As the next upper level trough crosses the central Great Lakes late
Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night, its associated cold
front will push towards the region reaching the far western
doorsteps of the forecast area by dawn on Friday morning. Initially
Thursday, expect skies to progressively become cloudier throughout
the day. Then, throughout the night and into Friday morning, shower
chances will also increase as the front becomes closer to the
vicinity of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sharply colder temperatures over the relatively warm lakes will
provide more than enough instability over the lakes to generate lake
effect showers Friday into Saturday afternoon behind a passing cold
front. Model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of
this pattern, both among the deterministic solutions and also with
run-to-run continuity. The 12Z package is trending with a slightly
weaker lake response as the upper level trough quickly moves
through. There are also some timing differences with the front as
well, which will have an impact on the start time of lake
enhancement and placement of bands. General widespread showers with
the passing front and upper level trough will also be possible for
much of the day on Friday. With these inconsistencies in mind, will
keep POPs at chance still during this period.

Showers across the lower elevations should be all rain, but for the
higher terrain where it will be a bit cooler, wet snow will possibly
mix in at times. The lake response off of both lakes will slowly
weaken through the day on Saturday from west to east as ridging
increases over the region. With a westerly flow over Lake Ontario
down the longer fetch of the lake, showers will linger a bit longer,
especially over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill.

A sfc high will build south from the mid-Mississippi Valley on
Saturday morning to the Atlantic coast on Monday night. This will
provide quiet, dry conditions from Saturday night through the rest
of the long term on Monday evening.

Temperatures during the long term period will be around 5 to 10
degrees below normal to start the period, and gradually warm to near
normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR weather included a wealth of cirrus can be expected through
the first half of Tuesday. Clearing skies thereafter with VFR
conditions persisting. Winds will be light.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Some restrictions possible in scattered
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The persistent northeasterly winds will finally back off tonight and
Tuesday as high pressure settles over the lower Great Lakes. This
will result in the choppy conditions greatly improving with
wave heights dropping to a foot or less through mid week. Winds
will become southwesterly and increase late Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of a sharp cold front. Behind the cold front,
strong cold air advection and brisk westerly component winds
will likely bring a round of small craft headlines Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ007-008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA


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