Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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030 FXUS61 KBUF 021429 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1029 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few lake effect showers will persist southeast of Lake Ontario from near Rochester to Oswego County and southward into the Finger Lakes through early afternoon. Otherwise, abundant lake effect clouds will give way to some gradual clearing later today. High pressure will then build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Sunday, bringing dry weather to close out the weekend. A warm front will then cross the area Sunday night and early Monday, with temperatures once again soaring to well above average for several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Radar imagery showing a few lake effect rain showers persisting southeast of Lake Ontario late this morning, from the eastern suburbs of Rochester eastward to Oswego County, and south into northern portions of the Finger Lakes region. These showers will last for a few more hours before lowering inversion heights bring an end to the lake effect showers. Extensive clouds across most of the region this morning will only slowly start to clear this afternoon with a layer of low level moisture lingering behind the departing system, aided by lake effect and upslope processes. Temperatures will be below average for a change, with highs ranging from the upper 40s on the lake plains of Western NY to the low to mid 40s for higher terrain and North Country. The Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks will likely remain in the mid to upper 30s. High pressure will roll in from the west by late this afternoon and then slowly track through New York State through the day Sunday. This will bring about clear skies Saturday night and good radiational cooling allowing temps to drop quickly into the 20s and low 30s across the CWA. After a cold start...temperatures will rebound into the 50s for much of the region. A bit cooler east of Lake Ontario where temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 40s. Sunday night...high pressure exit off to our east and a warm front will work northeast into the region. This will bring a return to of late season warmth as we work through next week. Otherwise...not quiet as cold with lows in the 30s to low 40s across far Western New York. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Highly amplified pattern to start the period with strong ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS and a deep trough over the West. Surface high pressure will remain anchored to our east as a warm frontal boundary finishes lifting through the region. For the most part, Monday looks dry with only a low confidence chance for a few showers along the northern tier of the area, but the best forcing will be north of the warm frontal zone which will be oriented across southern Canada. Strengthening southerly gradient flow will bring a breezy day, but also a notable warm up with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, although readings could be a few degrees cooler east of Lake Ontario which will be closer to the thermal gradient. Baroclinic zone remains just to the north of the region through Tuesday. While most of the area will be dry during this period there will be at least some low risk for showers across the northern tier of the area, generally closer to Lake Ontario into the North County. Upper level ridging along the east coast and the maintenance of a deep southwest flow aloft Tuesday will result in 850 mb temperatures surging to near +12C (+1 to +2 standard deviations above normal). High temperatures making a run at 75F in lower elevations depending on sunshine/mixing. Record highs for 11/5 all occurred in 2022, Buffalo 79F, Rochester 77F, and Watertown 77F. The front will slide across the region supporting rain showers Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall the pattern will support active weather through next week. A frontal will continue to slide across the region Wednesday supporting additional rain showers. In the wake of the front, a more zonal flow overhead, the passage of a few shortwave troughs, and the advection of cool air into the region will drop 850mb temperatures down towards +2-+3 degrees Celsius, supporting some lake enhanced showers southeast of the lakes Thursday and Friday. All of this being said, model guidance remains in disagreement regarding the timing of the shortwave trough passages and therefore the forecast resembles the national blend due to the uncertainty. Otherwise, temperatures in the wake of the front will be cooler though remain a few degrees above normal for the start of November. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A northwest flow of chilly air across the lakes will maintain cigs of 2000-3500 feet for most area terminals through early afternoon before a gradual/slow clearing trend and return to VFR later this afternoon and tonight. A few lake effect rain showers will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through early afternoon, mainly from just east of KROC to near KFZY and southward into northern portions of the Finger Lakes. Tonight...high pressure building in from the west will bring mainly VFR to terminals. Outlook... Sunday...VFR. Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with at LEAST scattered showers. && .MARINE... Northwest flow will gradually diminish today, with very choppy conditions on Lake Ontario gradually improving later today. High pressure will cross the lakes tonight through Sunday with light winds and minimal wave action. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ/TMA AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock MARINE...AR/Hitchcock