Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 252123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
523 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Breezy and mild conditions will continue through tonight then a
cold front will track across the region Wednesday with showers
and scattered thunderstorms expected. A few storms may become
strong to severe. High pressure will build across our region
Wednesday night through Thursday with dry weather and seasonable
temperatures. There is a chance for more rain showers Friday
with the next front.


Showers east of Rochester will continue to taper off as a 50 kt
low-level jet continues to depart the forecast area.

A strong cold front will track across the Ohio River Valley
overnight. The eastern Great Lakes will be located in the warm
sector and warm and humid conditions are expected. Dewpoints and
temperatures will not budge much and temperatures will even start to
rise late tonight/early Wednesday morning in the deep southerly
flow. Temperatures will be reached shortly after midnight with lows
around 65 deg. There will be a lull in showers this evening as large
scale forcing and any convectively induced shortwaves from
organized convection will be to the west, ahead of the cold
front. By the time the cold front enters western OH, after
midnight, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
from west to east. Thunderstorms should remain weak by early
Wednesday morning as lapse rates remain weak.

The cold front will be near the Western Southern Tier around sunrise
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across the
forecast area with a more organized line of showers and
thunderstorms confined to the cold front. The forecast area will be
in a high shear environment Wednesday morning and although
instability will be weak due to the timing, strong forcing from the
cold front will allow some thunderstorms to become strong to severe
as they track eastward across Western NY through the morning. Clouds
will likely persist through the day on Wednesday however some
insolation will help instability increase for areas east of the
Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms exists for the entire forecast area with the exception
of Niagara County and western Lake Ontario. The primary threat is
damaging winds.

The cold front will be through Rochester by 2 PM and the North
Country by 5 PM. Winds will become west behind the front and will
start to usher in cool, dry air. Temperatures will not follow a
diurnal trend across Western NY Wednesday. Highs in the upper
60s/ low 70s will be reached in the morning whereas highs in the
low to mid 70s will be reached east of Rochester towards the
early afternoon.


A ridge of high pressure will expand across the northeast CONUS
Wednesday night. Clouds will continue to clear out with winds become
light providing a favorable radiating night. Looking at low
temperatures in the 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the
normally colder interior sections. River valley fog is also

High pressure will keep fair weather across the area for Thursday
and Thursday night. Temperatures look seasonable with most
daytime highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure will slide off to the east Friday. Warm air
advection will ramp up as southwest flow increases ahead of the
approach of a weakening cold front. Forecast soundings show good
mixing so expect a breezy day, especially downwind of the
lakes. Shower chances will increase late in the day and into
Friday night, but with the weakening nature of the front
expect any shower activity to remain scattered, with best
chances from the Finger Lakes through the North Country.
Temperatures Friday should jump above normal with most highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.


High pressure will build in the region behind the passage of
the front early in the weekend. Model uncertainty then grows
for the end of the weekend and into early next week. Models
suggesting frontal boundary will become stationary somewhere
across the region as zonal flow develops with several waves
working along it, which may bring some light precipitation
Sunday. Better chances for precipitation could arrive early
next week ,as a more dynamic system approaches from the Plains
sending a warm frontal boundary across the region.


A warm front will track across the terminals through early
evening. There won`t be much change in the ceilings this
afternoon and tonight as we enter the warm sector of a very
moist environment. KROC and KART will likely stay VFR with
ceilings around 040-050 as downsloping helps dry out the low-

Showers will track across the terminals late tonight as a cold
front approaches the region. Southerly winds will become breezy
as the pressure gradient tightens tonight. Showers with a
chance of thunderstorms will arrive ahead of the cold front
across WNY toward 8-12z Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms
will track eastward across WNY through the morning hours and
across the North Country/KART around midday. A few storms may
produce strong to damaging wind gusts. Winds become west behind
the front by Wednesday afternoon.


Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...Chance of showers. Mainly VFR.


The pressure gradient has weakened late this afternoon which
allowed Small Craft headlines for this afternoon to be dropped.

A cold front will cross the lakes Wednesday. This front has the
potential to bring strong to severe thunderstorms with cold air
advection behind the front again kicking up the waves on the Lakes.
Winds will increase ahead and stay elevated past the frontal passage
Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Lake Erie
shore and Lake Ontario shore through late Wednesday as outlined
below. High pressure will then bring fair weather through the
end of the week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ042.



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