Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 021429
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lake effect showers will persist southeast of Lake Ontario
from near Rochester to Oswego County and southward into the Finger
Lakes through early afternoon. Otherwise, abundant lake effect
clouds will give way to some gradual clearing later today. High
pressure will then build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight
through Sunday, bringing dry weather to close out the weekend. A
warm front will then cross the area Sunday night and early Monday,
with temperatures once again soaring to well above average for
several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing a few lake effect rain showers persisting
southeast of Lake Ontario late this morning, from the eastern
suburbs of Rochester eastward to Oswego County, and south into
northern portions of the Finger Lakes region. These showers will
last for a few more hours before lowering inversion heights bring an
end to the lake effect showers. Extensive clouds across most of the
region this morning will only slowly start to clear this afternoon
with a layer of low level moisture lingering behind the departing
system, aided by lake effect and upslope processes. Temperatures
will be below average for a change, with highs ranging from the
upper 40s on the lake plains of Western NY to the low to mid 40s for
higher terrain and North Country. The Tug Hill and western foothills
of the Adirondacks will likely remain in the mid to upper 30s.

High pressure will roll in from the west by late this afternoon and
then slowly track through New York State through the day Sunday.
This will bring about clear skies Saturday night and good
radiational cooling allowing temps to drop quickly into the 20s and
low 30s across the CWA. After a cold start...temperatures will
rebound into the 50s for much of the region. A bit cooler east of
Lake Ontario where temperatures will struggle to climb out of the
40s.

Sunday night...high pressure exit off to our east and a warm front
will work northeast into the region. This will bring a return to of
late season warmth as we work through next week. Otherwise...not
quiet as cold with lows in the 30s to low 40s across far Western New
York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highly amplified pattern to start the period with strong ridging
over the eastern half of the CONUS and a deep trough over the West.
Surface high pressure will remain anchored to our east as a warm
frontal boundary finishes lifting through the region. For the
most part, Monday looks dry with only a low confidence chance
for a few showers along the northern tier of the area, but the
best forcing will be north of the warm frontal zone which will
be oriented across southern Canada. Strengthening southerly
gradient flow will bring a breezy day, but also a notable warm
up with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, although readings
could be a few degrees cooler east of Lake Ontario which will be
closer to the thermal gradient.

Baroclinic zone remains just to the north of the region through
Tuesday. While most of the area will be dry during this period
there will be at least some low risk for showers across the
northern tier of the area, generally closer to Lake Ontario into
the North County. Upper level ridging along the east coast and
the maintenance of a deep southwest flow aloft Tuesday will
result in 850 mb temperatures surging to near +12C (+1 to +2
standard deviations above normal). High temperatures making a
run at 75F in lower elevations depending on sunshine/mixing.
Record highs for 11/5 all occurred in 2022, Buffalo 79F,
Rochester 77F, and Watertown 77F.

The front will slide across the region supporting rain showers
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall the pattern will support active weather through next week.

A frontal will continue to slide across the region Wednesday
supporting additional rain showers.

In the wake of the front, a more zonal flow overhead, the passage of
a few shortwave troughs, and the advection of cool air into the
region will drop 850mb temperatures down towards +2-+3 degrees
Celsius, supporting some lake enhanced showers southeast of the
lakes Thursday and Friday. All of this being said, model guidance
remains in disagreement regarding the timing of the shortwave trough
passages and therefore the forecast resembles the national blend due
to the uncertainty. Otherwise, temperatures in the wake of the front
will be cooler though remain a few degrees above normal for the
start of November.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A northwest flow of chilly air across the lakes will maintain cigs
of 2000-3500 feet for most area terminals through early afternoon
before a gradual/slow clearing trend and return to VFR later this
afternoon and tonight. A few lake effect rain showers will continue
southeast of Lake Ontario through early afternoon, mainly from just
east of KROC to near KFZY and southward into northern portions of
the Finger Lakes.

Tonight...high pressure building in from the west will bring mainly
VFR to terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with at LEAST
scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow will gradually diminish today, with very choppy
conditions on Lake Ontario gradually improving later today.

High pressure will cross the lakes tonight through Sunday with light
winds and minimal wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ/TMA
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock