Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 290022 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 822 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. Daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm return to the forecast Sunday into next week with a deepening easterly flow off the Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure is centered over the OH/TN Valleys while a frontal boundary is stalled along the coast. Satellite imagery shows the sea breeze pushing westward toward the eastern Midlands but limited moisture will prevent any showers in our area. Skies should generally clear out with the loss of heating and winds expected to be light overnight allowing for reasonable radiational cooling. Cannot rule out some patchy fog across the eastern Midlands with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Overnight lows expected to range from the lower 60s west to mid 60s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models remain in fairly good agreement with the upper pattern through Monday night. Upper troughing moving off the New England coast will cut off a low at the base of the trough in the northeast GoM. At the same time, upper ridge builds in across the eastern CONUS, setting up a blocking pattern which will dominate our weather into early next week. With high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south, a weak onshore flow pattern begins bringing moisture back to the area. PWATs will bump back above 1" after dropping to around 0.8" briefly on Saturday, and dewpoints will return to the mid 60s. With the convergence along the sea-breeze, isolated to scattered convection should occur each afternoon across our eastern zones. With the pattern fairly stagnant will be nearly identical both Sunday and Monday, with highs around 90 and overnight lows falling to the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Tuesday will see the upper high move further west, while the upper low moves off the Atlantic coast. While south to southeasterly flow persists Tuesday with continued sea-breeze convection, Wednesday will see a bit more southwesterly flow with some drier air mixing in. As such, we may see a brief reprieve with PoPs dropping out of the mentionable category. Wednesday night into Thursday will see the approach of a shortwave trough and surface front with moisture once again seeing an uptick. Showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon, but may be more numerous in coverage on Friday when the front is progged to cross the area. A bit warmer during this period, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s, while overnight lows only drop into the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR expected through the TAF period except early morning fog/stratus at OGB. Onshore flow will develop overnight with shallow moisture moisture pushing into the eastern FA. This should allow fog and low stratus to form along the coastal plain and further develop to the west encroaching on the OGB TAF site. IFR or LIFR conditions are likely but should be short-lived, dissipating shortly after sunset. Fog at AGS is unlikely with crossover temperatures in the mid 50s but given its fog prone nature we can`t completely rule out shallow ground fog. Winds will pick up out of the SE around 15Z on Sunday but speeds will remain light and winds could be variable at times. There may be an isolated shower on Sunday afternoon but impacts to the terminals are unlikely due to limited coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered convection early next week may result in afternoon restrictions. Early morning fog also possible.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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