Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 141042 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 642 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... As surface high pressure north of the region slowly moves off to the east, drier air and a warming trend will move into the region through Monday. Dry weather expected through early next week, then moisture and rain chances return for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Fair. Upper trough over the E CONUS, with a disturbance progged to roll through, mainly just to our north, this afternoon and evening. The system will have little moisture to work with, with PW values around 0.50 to 0.75 inch, though diurnal heating with cool temps aloft could provide some scattered cumulus in the afternoon. At the surface, high pressure to our north will gradually build SE into our region, with old front pushing farther to the SE. Air mass modification to provide some warmer temps but tempered by some continued weak cool air advection in a light ENE wind to provide max temps still just below normal. Good radiational cooling conditions expected again tonight with well below normal lows in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Gradual height rises will spread across the Southeast over the weekend as dry high pressure remain in control at the surface. As the center of high pressure moves to the Mid-Atlantic coast, winds will become more southerly allowing an increase in moisture with pwats rising to around one inch by Sunday. Under partly cloudy skies, afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s both days. Overnight lows should fall into to the 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... By Monday the surface high will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast with flat upper ridging over the southeastern states. With this warm advection pattern, temperatures be around normal values for much of the week. An area of low pressure may move into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday, and with some moisture return ahead of it, there will could be a low chance for rainfall on Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR. Surface high pressure will build SE into our region with a dry atmosphere remaining in place. Air mass appears a little too dry to support fog early this morning, but shallow river valley fog could possibly impact fog prone AGS towards daybreak Saturday morning. Did not include mention in the 12z TAF due to low confidence. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy late night/early morning fog in favored locations, such as AGS, possible, otherwise no significant impacts to aviation expected through Monday. Increasing chances for precipitation and flight restrictions Tue/Wed.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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