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318
FXUS62 KCAE 260218
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1018 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will cross the area tonight. The front will be just
south of the area Tuesday with associated low pressure just off
the coast. The low will shift farther eastward and dry ridging
will become dominate Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Main front appears to finally be making its way through the cwa.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of and along
the boundary. This front should be pushing east of the area
between 04z-06z. May still have some lingering isolated light
showers for the remainder of the night, but dry conditions
expected by morning. Overnight lows from the upper 40s north,
to the lower 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper shortwave trough will pass south of the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. A stalled boundary will be
along the coast on Tuesday morning with surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes region. High pressure will shift over the
northeastern CONUS by Wednesday. A drier airmass will be
building into the forecast area with precipitable water values
around a quarter inch or less by Tuesday evening. Skies will be
clearing out by Tuesday night and will remain clear through
Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures are expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Low temperatures both nights will be in the lower 30s north to
upper 30s south. Winds will stay up especially Tuesday night and
air will be relatively dry, so believe widespread frost
development will not be an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be located off the coast of the
northeastern CONUS on Thursday and Friday. Low pressure over
the Great Plains will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley on
Saturday and bring a cold front into the forecast area on
Sunday and an associated chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. The front appears to stall to our south early
next week with unsettled conditions continuing. A warming trend
is expected through Sunday ahead of the front with cooler
temperatures behind the front for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Convection now south of CAE/CUB. Shower activity with a few
embedded TSRA will continue to affect DNL/AGS/OGB and vicinity
in the near term, then push south of those sites around 04Z or
05Z or so.

Behind this system, a back door front will move south through
the region late tonight and early Tuesday morning, leading to
winds shifting to NE, lowering CIGs, and a period of some
additional light rain. Ahead of the back door front, some fog
could develop given light winds and some expected breaks in the
mid level cloud cover.

Continued low cloudiness expected Tuesday, with CIG heights
expected to gradually rise during the day, with VFR possibly
achieved by late afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
No significant impacts to aviation expected Wednesday through
Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$