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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 301930 CCA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will weaken overnight. A low
pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring
widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Dry weather
and more seasonable temperatures will return Wednesday through
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure centered over the MS Valley was ridging
into our area. High level clouds have thinned, but will increase
by evening as a nearly zonal flow aloft brings in more high
level moisture. Weak cold advection is offset by downslope.
Expect above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in
the mid 70s north to low 80s south .

A strong short wave will cross the Southern Plains to the Lower
Mississippi River Valley overnight. Still expect increasing
clouds. Models indicate some weak isentropic lift toward
morning and there may be a few light showers mainly in the SC
Piedmont into the western Midlands before dawn but most areas
will remain dry. Mos guidance has been consistent with overnight
lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Surface low pressure over AL Tuesday
morning will track quickly eastward reaching southern GA by
early afternoon then moving offshore Tuesday evening. a strong
short wave trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley
Tuesday morning will move through the forecast area Tuesday
night as high pressure begins moving in at the surface. Main
concern Tuesday afternoon will be the path of the low and
potential for severe thunderstorms along the cold front. Models
in good agreement in taking the low across central GA and the
Lower Savannah River Area. Instability which is present will be
aloft and although there will be speed shear through the column
wind direction will be nearly unidirectional. Have continued a
chance for thunderstorms across the southern Midlands and CSRA
with Widespread showers elsewhere Tuesday afternoon. Showers
will come to an end Tuesday night as the upper level trough
slides east of the area. High temperatures will range from the
low 60s in the northern and western Midlands to the mid 70s in
the southern CSRA. Lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Low pressure will move out to
sea Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area from the
central US. Northerly winds will bring cooler and drier air into
the region. Lingering clouds Wednesday will clear Wednesday
night.

Below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s are forecast Wednesday
afternoon with lows in the low to mid 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of the region Thursday
and Friday then move off the coast over the weekend.
A disorganized area of low pressure will move into the eastern
US Saturday and Sunday. An onshore low will bring increasing
moisture. Instability with this system will be weak and with the
disorganized nature of the system have included low chance pops
for Sunday through Monday. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...smoke from prescribed burning may locally reduce VSBYs
this afternoon.

Dry air and weak downslope flow over the forecast area with
weak high pressure. Current satellite shows some clearing as
shortwave trough moves off the coast, with mid/upper level decks
expected to thicken again tonight ahead of next digging upper
level trough to our west. As surface low kicks out of TX
panhandle and moves eastward over next 24-36 hrs ceilings will
lower but expected to remain VFR until after 18Z as weak
isentropic lift/moisture flux develops mainly west of the
terminals. Winds will favor west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots
becoming light after 00z. As a result, significant fog or
stratus is expected to hold off until after the end of current
TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible late Tuesday
into early Wednesday with next upper trough and front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Congaree river remains elevated due to upstream dam releases
and runoff from recent rainfall. Please consult our web page at
www.weather.gov/cae for the latest info.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$