National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 290022
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
822 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer
daytime temperatures. Daily chances of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorm return to the forecast Sunday into next week with a
deepening easterly flow off the Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is centered over the OH/TN Valleys while a frontal
boundary is stalled along the coast. Satellite imagery shows the
sea breeze pushing westward toward the eastern Midlands but
limited moisture will prevent any showers in our area. Skies
should generally clear out with the loss of heating and winds
expected to be light overnight allowing for reasonable
radiational cooling. Cannot rule out some patchy fog across the
eastern Midlands with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Overnight lows
expected to range from the lower 60s west to mid 60s east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models remain in fairly good agreement with the upper pattern
through Monday night. Upper troughing moving off the New England
coast will cut off a low at the base of the trough in the northeast
GoM. At the same time, upper ridge builds in across the eastern
CONUS, setting up a blocking pattern which will dominate our weather
into early next week. With high pressure to our north and low
pressure to our south, a weak onshore flow pattern begins bringing
moisture back to the area. PWATs will bump back above 1" after
dropping to around 0.8" briefly on Saturday, and dewpoints will
return to the mid 60s. With the convergence along the sea-breeze,
isolated to scattered convection should occur each afternoon across
our eastern zones. With the pattern fairly stagnant will be nearly
identical both Sunday and Monday, with highs around 90 and overnight
lows falling to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday will see the upper high move further west, while the
upper low moves off the Atlantic coast. While south to southeasterly
flow persists Tuesday with continued sea-breeze convection,
Wednesday will see a bit more southwesterly flow with some drier air
mixing in. As such, we may see a brief reprieve with PoPs dropping
out of the mentionable category. Wednesday night into Thursday will
see the approach of a shortwave trough and surface front with
moisture once again seeing an uptick. Showers and storms return
to the forecast Thursday afternoon, but may be more numerous in
coverage on Friday when the front is progged to cross the area.

A bit warmer during this period, with high temperatures generally in
the low to mid 90s, while overnight lows only drop into the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR expected through the TAF period except early morning
fog/stratus at OGB.

Onshore flow will develop overnight with shallow moisture
moisture pushing into the eastern FA. This should allow fog and
low stratus to form along the coastal plain and further develop
to the west encroaching on the OGB TAF site. IFR or LIFR
conditions are likely but should be short-lived, dissipating
shortly after sunset. Fog at AGS is unlikely with crossover
temperatures in the mid 50s but given its fog prone nature we
can`t completely rule out shallow ground fog. Winds will pick up
out of the SE around 15Z on Sunday but speeds will remain light
and winds could be variable at times. There may be an isolated
shower on Sunday afternoon but impacts to the terminals are
unlikely due to limited coverage.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered convection
early next week may result in afternoon restrictions. Early
morning fog also possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$