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000
FXUS62 KCAE 171950
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
250 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will remain in the region through Monday.
However, a weak disturbance will develop along the coast late
Sunday and Sunday night. The disturbance will move away from the
region on Monday with the next weak cold front moving through
Tuesday. High pressure will dominate during the middle of the
week with unsettled weather returning late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure along with dry conditions will dominate the region
through tonight, extending from the Mid-Atlantic states down to
the Gulf Coast. Clear skies and light winds will allow
temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low to mid 60s.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow
temperatures to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s for most
locations. However, this will be slightly warmer that last
night due to onshore flow bringing in mid and possibly low
clouds by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move northeast of the region on Sunday. Along
the Southeast coast a weak disturbance will develop as an
along the coast Sunday into Sunday night. Models have strengthened
this feature slightly over the past couple of runs. Model time
sections show increasing low level moisture Sunday night into
Monday across the Midlands/CSRA. However, looks like the best
chance for measurable rainfall would be along the coast. Have
kept pops below slight chance category, but models do indicate
the possibility of a few light periods of rain Sunday
night/early Monday.

The disturbance will move northeastward on Monday and Monday
night off the coast of the Carolinas/Virginia as the next cold
front moves through the TN Valley and into the Upstate late
Monday night. Although there will be slightly increased clouds
on Monday and Monday night do not expect any rain. Temperatures
will be in the low to mid 60s for highs Sunday afternoon and mid
60s Monday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will move through the region Tuesday and with limited
moisture and weak dynamics do not expect any rainfall. High
pressure along with slightly cooler air behind the front and dry
air will occupy the region for Wednesday through Thanksgiving
Day. There begins to be some uncertainty in the models for
Friday through Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF have two differing
solutions by the end of the long term period. However, both
would include an increase in clouds and chances for rain during
the period. Temperatures through the long term will be near to
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure across the area and a dry air mass will provide
for mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through the day and
into tonight with light and variable winds mainly out of the
east. Models indicate onshore flow tonight may result in a
scattered to broken strato-cumulus deck by morning. Kept
ceilings VFR, but NAM time-heights indicate that they could drop
to MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor to moderate flooding on the Congaree River, Enoree River,
Great Pee Dee River and Wateree River will continue through the
weekend and into next week. Please see river flood products or
the AHPS website for information on river flooding at
https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=cae

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...