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886
FXUS62 KCAE 190520
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
120 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough and mid-level trough will push off the
Carolina coast early this morning. High pressure will build in
from the west through the remainder of the work week, bringing
dry and warm conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Shortwave trough crossing the area overnight will be south of
the area by daybreak. Behind this feature expect clearing skies
with light northerly winds as drier air moves in from the
north. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 60s to
around 70 given strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft over the lower Mississippi River Valley
builds eastward for the rest of the week. Increasing H5 heights
and overall atmospheric subsidence will lead to mostly clear
skies and continued above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure aloft moves off the Southeast U.S. coast by this
weekend which allows for an onshore flow into the Carolinas. The
region may see diurnal showers and thunderstorms early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period.

Drying has occurred in the westerly flow. Low-level moisture
associated with the recent rain event combined with nocturnal
cooling may lead to fog mainly at the river valley terminals of
AGS and OGB. However, it will be drier compared to the previous
night plus the models indicate a little more boundary layer
wind. Most of the NAM and GFS MOS plus SREF members maintain VFR
conditions so followed suit. High pressure in the Southern
Appalachians will direct light northerly winds into the area.
There could be some scattered fair weather cu during the
afternoon, then skies should clear around sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday. An onshore flow should bring
increased low-level moisture with an increased chance of late
night and early morning stratus and fog beginning Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Record rainfall has fallen across the Pee Dee basin, with over
20 inches in parts of Chesterfield County. Major flooding is
occurring along the Great Pee Dee River. Minor flooding is
expected on Lake Wateree.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$