Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 171950 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 250 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will remain in the region through Monday. However, a weak disturbance will develop along the coast late Sunday and Sunday night. The disturbance will move away from the region on Monday with the next weak cold front moving through Tuesday. High pressure will dominate during the middle of the week with unsettled weather returning late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure along with dry conditions will dominate the region through tonight, extending from the Mid-Atlantic states down to the Gulf Coast. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low to mid 60s. Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s for most locations. However, this will be slightly warmer that last night due to onshore flow bringing in mid and possibly low clouds by morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move northeast of the region on Sunday. Along the Southeast coast a weak disturbance will develop as an along the coast Sunday into Sunday night. Models have strengthened this feature slightly over the past couple of runs. Model time sections show increasing low level moisture Sunday night into Monday across the Midlands/CSRA. However, looks like the best chance for measurable rainfall would be along the coast. Have kept pops below slight chance category, but models do indicate the possibility of a few light periods of rain Sunday night/early Monday. The disturbance will move northeastward on Monday and Monday night off the coast of the Carolinas/Virginia as the next cold front moves through the TN Valley and into the Upstate late Monday night. Although there will be slightly increased clouds on Monday and Monday night do not expect any rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s for highs Sunday afternoon and mid 60s Monday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front will move through the region Tuesday and with limited moisture and weak dynamics do not expect any rainfall. High pressure along with slightly cooler air behind the front and dry air will occupy the region for Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day. There begins to be some uncertainty in the models for Friday through Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF have two differing solutions by the end of the long term period. However, both would include an increase in clouds and chances for rain during the period. Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure across the area and a dry air mass will provide for mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through the day and into tonight with light and variable winds mainly out of the east. Models indicate onshore flow tonight may result in a scattered to broken strato-cumulus deck by morning. Kept ceilings VFR, but NAM time-heights indicate that they could drop to MVFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor to moderate flooding on the Congaree River, Enoree River, Great Pee Dee River and Wateree River will continue through the weekend and into next week. Please see river flood products or the AHPS website for information on river flooding at https:/ && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99 HYDROLOGY... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.