Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 221836 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 236 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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The region will remain moist and unstable the next few days between a ridge offshore and weak low pressure to the west. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening expected over the next few days.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Warm, moist and unstable airmass across the region has resulted in the development of numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Convection affecting the CSRA into the Central Midlands will continue moving north this afternoon. PWAT remains high for this time with values ranging from 1.6 to 1.9 inches...so locally heavy rainfall will continue. Afternoon highs expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate this evening. Could see isolated showers continue overnight ...mainly across the western Midlands...given moist air mass and weak isentropic lift. Went with persistence for overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Bermuda ridge remains anchored offshore of the Carolinas with weak low pressure over Georgia. A frontal boundary appears to become nearly stationary across North Carolina early in the period. Air mass across SC/GA remains moist and unstable as tropical moisture flux continues from the Florida peninsula. Moisture appears to be a little deeper over the next couple of days. With weak low level convergence across the area and occasional weak upper level support from short wave troughs associated with low pressure over Georgia, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnally driven in the afternoon and evening. Continued with persistence forecast for temperatures. Max temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and near 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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With weak upper low still off to the west of the area, a southerly flow aloft will persist through the period. Generally continued with diurnally driven showers/storms through the end of the work week. Much uncertainty to the forecast entering the weekend and into early next week although trending toward increasing tropical moisture across the southeast and Gulf coast regions. The medium range models trending toward possible tropical low pressure development in the Gulf of Mexico. The 12z GFS has trended west more in line with latest GEM. The bottom line regardless of the evolution of low pressure development in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida is a continued somewhat wet pattern with mainly diurnally driven convection and near normal temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the TAF sites will diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating. Gusty winds and cig/vsby restrictions will be associated with thunderstorms. Most of the models show cig/vsby restrictions after 23/06Z with the development of fog and stratus. Should see some improvement in conditions by 23/15Z. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again by early afternoon Wednesday in moist and unstable airmass. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture will continue the pattern of unsettled weather through Sunday. Expect periods of late night and early morning IFR to MVFR ceilings and fog. Showers and thunderstorms will generally be diurnally driven, most likely occurring in the afternoon and evening.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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