Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 301930 CCA AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Columbia SC 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will weaken overnight. A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will return Wednesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure centered over the MS Valley was ridging into our area. High level clouds have thinned, but will increase by evening as a nearly zonal flow aloft brings in more high level moisture. Weak cold advection is offset by downslope. Expect above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid 70s north to low 80s south . A strong short wave will cross the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi River Valley overnight. Still expect increasing clouds. Models indicate some weak isentropic lift toward morning and there may be a few light showers mainly in the SC Piedmont into the western Midlands before dawn but most areas will remain dry. Mos guidance has been consistent with overnight lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday and Tuesday night...Surface low pressure over AL Tuesday morning will track quickly eastward reaching southern GA by early afternoon then moving offshore Tuesday evening. a strong short wave trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday morning will move through the forecast area Tuesday night as high pressure begins moving in at the surface. Main concern Tuesday afternoon will be the path of the low and potential for severe thunderstorms along the cold front. Models in good agreement in taking the low across central GA and the Lower Savannah River Area. Instability which is present will be aloft and although there will be speed shear through the column wind direction will be nearly unidirectional. Have continued a chance for thunderstorms across the southern Midlands and CSRA with Widespread showers elsewhere Tuesday afternoon. Showers will come to an end Tuesday night as the upper level trough slides east of the area. High temperatures will range from the low 60s in the northern and western Midlands to the mid 70s in the southern CSRA. Lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50. Wednesday and Wednesday night...Low pressure will move out to sea Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area from the central US. Northerly winds will bring cooler and drier air into the region. Lingering clouds Wednesday will clear Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s are forecast Wednesday afternoon with lows in the low to mid 40s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain in control of the region Thursday and Friday then move off the coast over the weekend. A disorganized area of low pressure will move into the eastern US Saturday and Sunday. An onshore low will bring increasing moisture. Instability with this system will be weak and with the disorganized nature of the system have included low chance pops for Sunday through Monday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the long term. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Update...smoke from prescribed burning may locally reduce VSBYs this afternoon. Dry air and weak downslope flow over the forecast area with weak high pressure. Current satellite shows some clearing as shortwave trough moves off the coast, with mid/upper level decks expected to thicken again tonight ahead of next digging upper level trough to our west. As surface low kicks out of TX panhandle and moves eastward over next 24-36 hrs ceilings will lower but expected to remain VFR until after 18Z as weak isentropic lift/moisture flux develops mainly west of the terminals. Winds will favor west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots becoming light after 00z. As a result, significant fog or stratus is expected to hold off until after the end of current TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday with next upper trough and front. && .HYDROLOGY... The Congaree river remains elevated due to upstream dam releases and runoff from recent rainfall. Please consult our web page at www.weather.gov/cae for the latest info. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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