Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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970 FXUS62 KCAE 101940 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 240 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Despite water slowly receding, extensive flooding continues along the Edisto River between Orangeburg and Branchville. Strong high pressure over New England continues to build south through the Carolinas into Georgia this afternoon. Moisture also spreads north as weak cold air damming is expected to develop. Scattered light rain or drizzle into Monday morning with cooler temperatures. A cold front is expected to move through Monday, with drier and seasonable conditions Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves toward the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Wedge-like conditions will continue develop throughout Sunday and into Monday. Abundant moisture advection aloft continues to push into the area with PWAT`s jumping up near 2.0" in the CSRA. Light showers will continue, again mainly in the CSRA during the day today; QPF`s will be very low however. High temps will be limited especially in the CSRA today, likely remaining in the low 60`s. Flow with strengthen aloft later this afternoon and evening ahead of the surface front and associated mid-level trough to our north. Moisture convergence and isentropic lift will strengthen over the entire area, with increasing PoP`s throughout the evening and overnight. HREF is pretty consistent across all members showing very wedge-like precip, with scattered stratiform and embedded showers and relatively low QPF`s, with totals between 0.25-0.5". && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Scattered showers possible Monday morning. - Drying conditions with warmer temperatures by Monday afternoon. Some lingering light shower activity is expected Monday morning through about midday as wedge conditions continue. An approaching cold front from the west is forecast to move through the area some time Monday, aiding to scour out the wedge conditions and cloud cover. There is some question of when this front will move through, which would affect how warm we get in the afternoon. Nonetheless, once the front moves through, clearing and westerly to northwesterly low level flow are expected, allowing temperatures to rise fairly quickly. Forecast highs are in the low 70s north and west to upper 70s to the south and east. Overnight lows are expected to be relatively mild in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Message(s): - A few showers possible with frontal passage mid to late week. - Temperatures more seasonable late in the week. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry as high pressure builds over New England and works its way down into the Southeast. This expected setup will likely allow cooler and drier air to settle into the region, with Wednesday being the cooler of the two days. Another cold front and upper trough are forecast to approach the region for the second half of the week, bringing a chance for shower activity back to the area, mainly for Thursday. As of now, still looking at a slight chance of showers for the day. A gradual warmup is then anticipated to end the week and into the weekend as upper ridging moves overhead. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mix of restrictions today and tonight as wedge conditions linger with low cigs and showers. Wedge conditions continue across much of the area, impacting all TAF sites to some extent. It is not a terribly strong wedge however and the deep moisture remains over the CSRA, including DNL and AGS. So showers, lower cigs, and vsby reductions are expected through Monday morning at AGS and DNL. MVFR cigs and vsby likely this afternoon (with a few drops to IFR possible, but confidence too low for a TAF mention yet). CAE, CUB, and OGB should remain VFR (with some drops to MVFR possible) through later this evening before wedge conditions develop. IFR and LIFR conditions likely develop at AGS and DNL starting around 00z and then starting at CAE, CUB, and OGB around midnight Monday, lasting through late Monday morning. Showers will become heavier and more widespread after 06z at all TAF sites. Winds throughout the period will remain light, turning from northeast Monday morning to southwest Monday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture and wedge conditions may last into early Monday afternoon. Rain chances and restrictions become possible again by Thursday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The North Fork of the Edisto at Orangeburg has receded into minor flood and continues to slowly recede today. Water flowing south from the river into the South Fork is also producing extensive flooding especially near Branchville and areas downstream. The river at Branchville has finally crested and is gradually receding. Slowly improving conditions are then expected over the next few days with any additional rainfall being minimal. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... HYDROLOGY...