Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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180 FXUS62 KCAE 300553 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 153 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will build into the region this week keeping skies mostly sunny and temperatures cooler than days past. Moisture will increase over the Southeast this weekend resulting in mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below normal into the weekend then a warming early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Very little to say about the weather today other than that it is expected to be absolutely beautiful. High pressure will continue to slowly shift into the eastern US, with our FA remaining on the southern side of the high pressure system. PWs are 30-50% of normal across the area which is helping to keep us drier than normal. Bumped highs this afternoon up a degree or two given the amount of sunshine. High pressure will remain to our north tonight but given the dry air in place, temps should radiate into the mid 50s for lows!
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry NW flow over the area through the short term. At the surface, high pressure will move from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states ushering in dry air and cooler temperatures. Atmospheric moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 80s, a few degrees below normal. Friday night should be the coolest night with surface high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic states. Radiational cooling under mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to fall into the 50s for many areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Global ensembles are in general agreement for the long term showing the axis of an upper level trough moving offshore this weekend. This will allow surface high pressure to also move offshore ushering in southerly flow and increasing moisture beginning Saturday night or Sunday. PWAT values will rise back to normal by Sunday morning with near or above normal values (1.4 to 1.8) likely for the remainder of the long term. In general, ensembles favor zonal flow or weak ridging for Sunday through early next week. This setup typically favors shortwave troughs periodically moving across the area. Overall, near or above normal atmospheric moisture with shortwave activity favors isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in the afternoon to evening. At this time, there appears to be no prominent surface features or strong shortwaves that would support widespread rainfall. With southerly flow developing late this weekend and possible ridging early next week, temperatures should rise to near or above normal for the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period. High pressure ridging over the area with some high clouds passing over the terminals. Dry air is in place and will only get drier through the day, keeping precipitation and any lower clouds completely at bay. So really this is just a wind forecast, with winds picking up out of the north by mid-morning and relaxing a bit after sunset tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.
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