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866
FXUS62 KCAE 122354
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak ridging will remain over the region into Sunday, allowing
temperatures to slowly rise with typical summertime showers and
thunderstorms. Hot temperatures expected to start off the week,
then the ridge breaks down by mid-week, leading to cooler
temperatures and higher rain chances once again during the
middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Scattered strong storms expected again into this evening.

The region will remain along the northern periphery of an upper
level ridge through tonight. Meanwhile, Atlantic high pressure
prevails over the western Atlantic, maintaining a flow of deep
moisture into the area.

Regional radar still showing scattered convection this evening
over portions of the forecast area. This activity should
continue through sunset, then with the loss of heating it is
expected to diminish with the overnight hours dry. Abundant low
level moisture could result in some light/patchy fog toward
daybreak, and some stratus is possible, but HREF suggests the
greatest coverage should remain east of the area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Upper ridging brings hot and humid conditions with heat index
  values in the 100-105 range each day.
- Isolated to scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening.

Ridging is expected to continue over the region for Sunday and
Monday while an upper trough is forecast to pass to our north. As a
result, expect the typical summertime pattern to continue as we head
into the work week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the
summer humidity will likely result in heat index values in the 100-
105 range for both days. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take
breaks if spending a lot of time outdoors, especially during peak
heating. You can also expect the diurnal thunderstorm activity each
day with more coverage anticipated on Monday as compared to Sunday.
Given the inverted V forecast soundings each day, any stronger storm
could produce strong to marginally severe winds, small hail, and
frequent lightning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and storms possible
  each day.

Upper ridge is expected to break down some for midweek, leading to
slightly "cooler" temperatures along with scattered PM showers and
thunderstorms each day. Ridging begins to build back over the region
late in the week, bringing warmer temps back to the area. Latest
NAEFS forecast PWAT values remain at least in the 90th percentile or
above through the end of the long term, which will likely produce at
least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast
period, although some temporary mvfr restrictions in br are
possible towards Sunday morning.

Regional radars showing scattered convection across portions of
the forecast area. Will handle current activity with vcts in
most locations through 01z, then expect diminishing coverage
after sunset. Overnight hours should remain mostly dry.
Additional isolated to scattered convection becomes possible
once again for Sunday afternoon, but due to uncertainty in
coverage location, will not mention in tafs at this time. As for
any restrictions, most guidance has been indicating a mostly vfr
forecast through the period. There is some minor concern that
areas that received some rainfall may have enough moisture
towards morning to bring some patchy mvfr visibilities in br.
Have included mention for 4sm br in a tempo for this
possibility. Otherwise, vfr conditions outside of afternoon
convection expected at all taf locations. Winds mostly light and
variable overnight, then turning out of the northwest around 5
knots by late morning on Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms into early next week with the
potential for periodic restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$