Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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318 FXUS62 KCAE 260218 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1018 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front will cross the area tonight. The front will be just south of the area Tuesday with associated low pressure just off the coast. The low will shift farther eastward and dry ridging will become dominate Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Main front appears to finally be making its way through the cwa. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of and along the boundary. This front should be pushing east of the area between 04z-06z. May still have some lingering isolated light showers for the remainder of the night, but dry conditions expected by morning. Overnight lows from the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper shortwave trough will pass south of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. A stalled boundary will be along the coast on Tuesday morning with surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region. High pressure will shift over the northeastern CONUS by Wednesday. A drier airmass will be building into the forecast area with precipitable water values around a quarter inch or less by Tuesday evening. Skies will be clearing out by Tuesday night and will remain clear through Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low temperatures both nights will be in the lower 30s north to upper 30s south. Winds will stay up especially Tuesday night and air will be relatively dry, so believe widespread frost development will not be an issue. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will be located off the coast of the northeastern CONUS on Thursday and Friday. Low pressure over the Great Plains will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday and bring a cold front into the forecast area on Sunday and an associated chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The front appears to stall to our south early next week with unsettled conditions continuing. A warming trend is expected through Sunday ahead of the front with cooler temperatures behind the front for Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Convection now south of CAE/CUB. Shower activity with a few embedded TSRA will continue to affect DNL/AGS/OGB and vicinity in the near term, then push south of those sites around 04Z or 05Z or so. Behind this system, a back door front will move south through the region late tonight and early Tuesday morning, leading to winds shifting to NE, lowering CIGs, and a period of some additional light rain. Ahead of the back door front, some fog could develop given light winds and some expected breaks in the mid level cloud cover. Continued low cloudiness expected Tuesday, with CIG heights expected to gradually rise during the day, with VFR possibly achieved by late afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant impacts to aviation expected Wednesday through Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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