Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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886 FXUS62 KCAE 190520 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 120 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough and mid-level trough will push off the Carolina coast early this morning. High pressure will build in from the west through the remainder of the work week, bringing dry and warm conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Shortwave trough crossing the area overnight will be south of the area by daybreak. Behind this feature expect clearing skies with light northerly winds as drier air moves in from the north. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 60s to around 70 given strong radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure aloft over the lower Mississippi River Valley builds eastward for the rest of the week. Increasing H5 heights and overall atmospheric subsidence will lead to mostly clear skies and continued above normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure aloft moves off the Southeast U.S. coast by this weekend which allows for an onshore flow into the Carolinas. The region may see diurnal showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect mainly VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Drying has occurred in the westerly flow. Low-level moisture associated with the recent rain event combined with nocturnal cooling may lead to fog mainly at the river valley terminals of AGS and OGB. However, it will be drier compared to the previous night plus the models indicate a little more boundary layer wind. Most of the NAM and GFS MOS plus SREF members maintain VFR conditions so followed suit. High pressure in the Southern Appalachians will direct light northerly winds into the area. There could be some scattered fair weather cu during the afternoon, then skies should clear around sunset. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Thursday. An onshore flow should bring increased low-level moisture with an increased chance of late night and early morning stratus and fog beginning Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Record rainfall has fallen across the Pee Dee basin, with over 20 inches in parts of Chesterfield County. Major flooding is occurring along the Great Pee Dee River. Minor flooding is expected on Lake Wateree. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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