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000
FXUS62 KCAE 042342
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
742 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air over the area will limit showers and thunderstorms
through tonight. Increasing moisture along with an upper level
trough and higher daytime temperatures Wednesday through the
weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deeper moisture remains just off to the south and east of the
area late this evening. A few shower/storms remain near the
deeper moisture, and this may impact extreme southern portions
of the CSRA the next few hours.

Otherwise, the drier air that has been in control over the
majority of the area will dominate overnight. Some mixing in the
lower levels, along with cross over temperatures in the 60s,
should limit any widespread fog formation. Skies will be a
mixture of cloudiness early due to convective cirrus moving
through, then partly cloudy skies expected the majority of the
overnight hours. Low temperatures mainly in the lower to middle
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will be slowly moving toward the forecast
area from the central Gulf States with weak southerly flow
continuing to advect moisture into the area. With short waves
rotation through the trough axis expect increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Potential for strong thunderstorms is
currently low Wednesday and Thursday however there will be
drier air moving into the mid and upper levels Thursday
afternoon with DCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg so convection which
develops will have potential to produce wind gusts.
Temperatures will be near normal with highs ranging from the
upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly typical early August weather is in store through the weekend
and into early next week. The are will sit between a weak jet stream
over the northern U.S. and the Bermuda High perched across Florida
at the far southern end of an upper level trof. Seasonably warm and
humid conditions will prevail, with scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms expected. Highs 90-95 and lows 70-75 will be the
rule.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period. Currently,
convection is ongoing to the south of AGS/DNL/OGB. Watching closely
to see if that will provide any impacts over the next few hours, but
those aren`t expected to impact any sites at this time. Cloud debris
from this will likely persist overnight, making it up to all sites.

Fog/stratus is possible overnight, especially at favored sites. Have
TEMPO group early in the morning for light fog at AGS/OGB, and held
off at other sites. Model guidance is too inconsistent, and
crossover temp too low to expect fog at those sites. Plus, if clouds
hang on at OGB, expectations for fog will decrease there too. Some
guidance was hinting at stratus, but not confident enough to
include. Once the sun comes up, any issues should quickly go away.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected at all sites tomorrow
afternoon, so VCTS at 18z at all sites. Primary concerns are lower
vis/cig in any storm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions should prevail outside
of afternoon convection, and the chance of early morning fog or
status.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$