Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 042342 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 742 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air over the area will limit showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Deeper moisture remains just off to the south and east of the area late this evening. A few shower/storms remain near the deeper moisture, and this may impact extreme southern portions of the CSRA the next few hours. Otherwise, the drier air that has been in control over the majority of the area will dominate overnight. Some mixing in the lower levels, along with cross over temperatures in the 60s, should limit any widespread fog formation. Skies will be a mixture of cloudiness early due to convective cirrus moving through, then partly cloudy skies expected the majority of the overnight hours. Low temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough will be slowly moving toward the forecast area from the central Gulf States with weak southerly flow continuing to advect moisture into the area. With short waves rotation through the trough axis expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Potential for strong thunderstorms is currently low Wednesday and Thursday however there will be drier air moving into the mid and upper levels Thursday afternoon with DCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg so convection which develops will have potential to produce wind gusts. Temperatures will be near normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Fairly typical early August weather is in store through the weekend and into early next week. The are will sit between a weak jet stream over the northern U.S. and the Bermuda High perched across Florida at the far southern end of an upper level trof. Seasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail, with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected. Highs 90-95 and lows 70-75 will be the rule. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period. Currently, convection is ongoing to the south of AGS/DNL/OGB. Watching closely to see if that will provide any impacts over the next few hours, but those aren`t expected to impact any sites at this time. Cloud debris from this will likely persist overnight, making it up to all sites. Fog/stratus is possible overnight, especially at favored sites. Have TEMPO group early in the morning for light fog at AGS/OGB, and held off at other sites. Model guidance is too inconsistent, and crossover temp too low to expect fog at those sites. Plus, if clouds hang on at OGB, expectations for fog will decrease there too. Some guidance was hinting at stratus, but not confident enough to include. Once the sun comes up, any issues should quickly go away. Scattered thunderstorms are expected at all sites tomorrow afternoon, so VCTS at 18z at all sites. Primary concerns are lower vis/cig in any storm. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions should prevail outside of afternoon convection, and the chance of early morning fog or status. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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