Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 161418 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1018 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area through much of the week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast early this week with increasing chances in coverage through the week. Temperatures will warm to above normal by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Rainfall unlikely today, highs in the low 90s. An upper level ridge over the Southeast will weaken through the day. Southerly flow will advect moisture into the region with PWAT values increasing to around 1.5 inches this afternoon. Models suggest that the capping inversion from the weak ridge will be sufficient to suppress convection over inland areas. High temperatures will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Monday and Monday night...Air mass expected to be moderately unstable during the afternoon with precipitable water around 1.5 inches. Limiting factors for convection continues to be surface and upper ridge offshore extending into the area with resulting mid level capping. Triggers for convection remain limited mainly associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont trough. Will continue with isolated afternoon storms with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Any convection should be diurnal with low pops overnight. Late night stratus possible with high low-level moisture. Low temperatures slightly above normal in the low 70s. Tuesday...Models trending more moist on Tuesday as mid level trough approaches from the Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water may increase to above 1.75 inches. With moderate instability and weaker ridging, will continue chance pops mainly in the afternoon although convection could linger in the evening. Max temperatures around 90 degrees with a little more cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An series of short wave troughs will move through the region from the Midwest mid to late week with the stronger wave possibly late Thursday. High low-level moisture and moderate instability both Wednesday and Thursday with stronger triggers, so higher chance afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lower pops Friday into the weekend as upper ridging and drier air across the area behind the trough. Temperatures at or above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through the day with a chance of fog/stratus tonight. VFR conditions will persist through the day with diurnal cumulus and a few high clouds. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 kts through 00Z. Convection this afternoon will be limited to the sea breeze and is unlikely to impact the TAF sites. A brief period of fog/stratus may develop early Monday morning. The most likely TAF sites to be impacted are OGB and AGS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Southerly flow will continue increasing moisture and chances of diurnal convection and late night/early morning fog/stratus through Thursday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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