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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 141042
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
642 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
As surface high pressure north of the region slowly moves off to the
east, drier air and a warming trend will move into the region
through Monday. Dry weather expected through early next week,
then moisture and rain chances return for Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fair.  Upper trough over the E CONUS, with a disturbance progged to
roll through, mainly just to our north, this afternoon and evening.
The system will have little moisture to work with, with PW values
around 0.50 to 0.75 inch, though diurnal heating with cool temps
aloft could provide some scattered cumulus in the afternoon. At the
surface, high pressure to our north will gradually build SE into
our region, with old front pushing farther to the SE. Air mass
modification to provide some warmer temps but tempered by some
continued weak cool air advection in a light ENE wind to provide
max temps still just below normal. Good radiational cooling
conditions expected again tonight with well below normal lows in
the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual height rises will spread across the Southeast over the
weekend as dry high pressure remain in control at the surface. As
the center of high pressure moves to the Mid-Atlantic coast, winds
will become more southerly allowing an increase in moisture with
pwats rising to around one inch by Sunday. Under partly cloudy
skies, afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s both
days. Overnight lows should fall into to the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Monday the surface high will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast with
flat upper ridging over the southeastern states. With this warm
advection pattern, temperatures be around normal values for much of
the week. An area of low pressure may move into the area by Tuesday
and Wednesday, and with some moisture return ahead of it, there will
could be a low chance for rainfall on Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR. Surface high pressure will build SE into our region with a dry
atmosphere remaining in place.  Air mass appears a little too dry to
support fog early this morning, but shallow river valley fog could
possibly impact fog prone AGS towards daybreak Saturday morning.
Did not include mention in the 12z TAF due to low confidence.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy late night/early morning fog in
favored locations, such as AGS, possible, otherwise no significant
impacts to aviation expected through Monday. Increasing
chances for precipitation and flight restrictions Tue/Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$