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000
FXUS62 KCAE 161418
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1018 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today
with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
into the area through much of the week. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will return to the forecast early this week with
increasing chances in coverage through the week. Temperatures
will warm to above normal by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rainfall unlikely today, highs in the low 90s.

An upper level ridge over the Southeast will weaken through the
day. Southerly flow will advect moisture into the region with
PWAT values increasing to around 1.5 inches this afternoon.
Models suggest that the capping inversion from the weak ridge
will be sufficient to suppress convection over inland areas.
High temperatures will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night...Air mass expected to be moderately
unstable during the afternoon with precipitable water around 1.5
inches. Limiting factors for convection continues to be surface
and upper ridge offshore extending into the area with resulting
mid level capping. Triggers for convection remain limited mainly
associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont
trough. Will continue with isolated afternoon storms with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Any convection should be
diurnal with low pops overnight. Late night stratus possible
with high low-level moisture. Low temperatures slightly above
normal in the low 70s.

Tuesday...Models trending more moist on Tuesday as mid level
trough approaches from the Mississippi Valley. Precipitable
water may increase to above 1.75 inches. With moderate
instability and weaker ridging, will continue chance pops mainly
in the afternoon although convection could linger in the
evening. Max temperatures around 90 degrees with a little more
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An series of short wave troughs will move through the region
from the Midwest mid to late week with the stronger wave
possibly late Thursday. High low-level moisture and moderate
instability both Wednesday and Thursday with stronger triggers,
so higher chance afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lower pops
Friday into the weekend as upper ridging and drier air across
the area behind the trough. Temperatures at or above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through the day with a chance of fog/stratus
tonight.

VFR conditions will persist through the day with diurnal
cumulus and a few high clouds. Southwest winds around 5 to 10
kts through 00Z. Convection this afternoon will be limited to
the sea breeze and is unlikely to impact the TAF sites.

A brief period of fog/stratus may develop early Monday morning.
The most likely TAF sites to be impacted are OGB and AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Southerly flow will continue
increasing moisture and chances of diurnal convection and late
night/early morning fog/stratus through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$