Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 270020 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 820 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure across the area through Tuesday with warming temperatures. Tropical moisture is expected to affect our region Wednesday night through Thursday night with a chance of rain. Dry air expected to move in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Satellite imagery across the area shows limited low clouds hanging around the CSRA but for the most part high pressure remains in control with mostly clear skies and light winds. Expect favorable radiational cooling conditions early tonight but dew points remain mostly in the 60s, indicating plenty of low level moisture. With light winds in place, fog is likely to develop which may be dense at times, especially across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure aloft will be over The Midlands and CSRA on Tuesday for very warm and dry weather. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Deep tropical moisture ahead of Hurricane Zeta will increase on Wednesday with a chance of afternoon showers. Precipitable water values will increase to 1.75 to 2 inches which is near record for late October. WPC keeps significant rainfall across the Southern Appalachians Wednesday Night through Thursday. Will need to monitor the potential for severe weather on Thursday as the remnants of Hurricane Zeta pass through the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Forecast models call for low/moderate instability and strong wind shear. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary concerns three days in advance of a potential event. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Severe weather will be possible Thursday Night as an upper level low pressure system moves just north of The Midlands and CSRA. This system transitions to an open upper trough on Friday and moves off the coast. Surface high pressure builds into the region Friday Night through Saturday Night for dry and much cooler weather with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. An upper trough swings across the Southeast U.S. on Sunday for a slight chance of showers. Dry and seasonable weather returns on Monday with another area of high pressure across the Eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions expected to develop during the early morning hours and continue through midday. Weak northerly flow aloft will be replaced by southerly flow over the next couple of hours and combine with low level moisture to begin producing cig and vsby restrictions. Expect MVFR restrictions at all terminals beginning around 07z and lowering to IFR to LIFR around 11z. Restrictions will begin improving around 14z with VFR conditions expected to return around 17z. Winds through the period will be light and variable. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning cig/vsby restrictions in fog/low clouds possible Wednesday. The remnants of a tropical system Zeta passing northwest of the area is expected to bring restrictions Wednesday through Thursday night. Gusty winds possible Friday behind the departing system. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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