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716
FXUS62 KCAE 121756
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
156 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak ridging will remain over the region through the weekend,
allowing temperatures to slowly rise with typical summertime
showers and thunderstorms. Some strong storms possible into this
evening. The ridge breaks down early next week, leading to
cooler temperatures and higher rain chances once again during
the middle of next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Scattered strong storms expected again into this evening.

The region will remain along the northern periphery of an upper
level ridge through tonight. Meanwhile, Atlantic high pressure
prevails over the western Atlantic, maintaining a flow of deep
moisture into the area.

The CAMs show scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
through the afternoon, although timing and area of focus differ
between many of the members. With a weak northwesterly flow
aloft around the ridge axis, there is the potential for these
storms to organize a bit and drop southeast across the area
through much of the evening. The latest mesoanalysis depicts
precipitable water values as high as 2.0-2.2 inches across the
area. In addition, the deep moisture and strong heating has
resulted in a moderately to strongly unstable atmosphere, with
SBCAPE values upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg. Some drier air aloft
could also advect in due to the northwest flow, pushing DCAPE
values over 750 J/kg. All of these factors could support strong
if not a few isolated severe thunderstorms through the evening,
with wet microburst the primary threat. As a result, the most
of the area remains in a Marginal Risk for severe weather.
Additionally, given the multiple rounds of rain we have seen
the last few days, any training storms will have a flash flood
potential given the efficient rain rates.

Convection should dissipate late this evening, with some higher
clouds lingering through the overnight hours. Abundant low
level moisture could result in some light/patchy fog toward
daybreak, and some stratus is possible, but HREF suggests the
greatest coverage should remain east of the area.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

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Key message(s):

- Upper ridging brings hot and humid conditions with heat index
  values in the 100-105 range each day.
- Isolated to scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening.

Ridging is expected to continue over the region for Sunday and
Monday while an upper trough is forecast to pass to our north. As a
result, expect the typical summertime pattern to continue as we head
into the work week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the
summer humidity will likely result in heat index values in the 100-
105 range for both days. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take
breaks if spending a lot of time outdoors, especially during peak
heating. You can also expect the diurnal thunderstorm activity each
day with more coverage anticipated on Monday as compared to Sunday.
Given the inverted V forecast soundings each day, any stronger storm
could produce strong to marginally severe winds, small hail, and
frequent lightning.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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Key message(s):

- Seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and storms possible
  each day.

Upper ridge is expected to break down some for midweek, leading to
slightly "cooler" temperatures along with scattered PM showers and
thunderstorms each day. Ridging begins to build back over the region
late in the week, bringing warmer temps back to the area. Latest
NAEFS forecast PWAT values remain at least in the 90th percentile or
above through the end of the long term, which will likely produce at
least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity each day.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period,
although some temporary restrictions are possible.

Abundant moisture and instability will support the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of this
evening. The TAFs show a PROB30 at the terminals through mid-
evening for thunderstorms, with potential flight restrictions
and gusty/erratic winds. There is a small potential for stratus
and/or patchy fog toward daybreak, but confidence in its
development is not great enough to include mention in the
forecast at this time. Winds throughout the period will
generally be light, primarily from the southwest through this
evening, then the northwest Sunday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend with the
potential for periodic restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$