000
FXUS62 KCAE 121835
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions continue into this evening as a shortwave
trough moves over head. An isolated shower is possible this
afternoon along the NC/SC border. Winds diminish for Saturday,
but remain breezy into the afternoon. Warmer weather and dry
conditions move in for the weekend and early next week as high
pressure and upper ridging move over head.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper air analysis shows an upper shortwave trough translating
through a larger scale trough that is sitting over the
Southeast. Surface analysis indicates a tight pressure gradient
across Georgia and South Carolina. This combined with a well
mixed boundary layer has led to windy conditions across the
forecast area. West winds are blowing 20 to 25 mph with gusts in
the 30 to 35 mph. Temperatures as of 1 pm are right around 70
degrees.

Rest of today and tonight: The embedded shortwave is expected to
continue translating around the base of the upper trough. As
result, windy conditions are expected to continue with peak
gusts around 40 mph this afternoon before easing somewhat
overnight. The Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm due
to these gusts. Despite winds easing overnight, still expecting
breezy conditions to continue for several hours. So, the Wind
Advisory may need to be extended or replaced by a Lake Wind
Advisory after 8 pm. Will continue to monitor the need for
either of these this afternoon into the evening.

As the shortwave moves overhead, there may be just enough lift
and moisture available to produce an isolated shower or two near
the NC/SC border late this afternoon, with only light
precipitation anticipated.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...Amplified upper trough will be well offshore by
morning. Dry northwest flow aloft across the region. There is a
short wave trough moving through but only very thin high clouds
expected. Precipitable water less than 0.5 inches. With deep
low over eastern Canada and pressure ridge over the Deep South,
the pressure gradient across the area remains relatively tight
until the afternoon. Winds expected to be lower than today, but
still breezy with a few gusts to around 20 mph. The highest
winds may be in the morning as the gradient relaxes later in the
day. With relatively strong downslope flow and subsidence,
think it will be a little warmer than the NBM mean. Mos
consensus is a little warmer so went with low to mid 70s.

Saturday night...the surface ridge moves east over Florida and
extends into GA/SC. Expect more favorable radiational cooling
with lows in the mid 40s to around 50.

Sunday...Modest increase in moisture through the day with
precipitable water to 1 inch. Fast west-northwest flow aloft and
a short wave moves through in the evening with mid level clouds
expected. With warm advection in the afternoon as surface ridge
to the south pushes east, temperatures above normal in the low
to mid 80s. Strong mixing Sunday night should keep temps up a
bit. lows around 60 expected.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increase in low level moisture Monday. GFS Model soundings show
steep low to mid level lapse rates and elevated instability but
air mass appears capped with strong subsidence as upper ridge
over the Mississippi Valley builds east into the region. A
frontal boundary is well north of the region east- west across
the Mid Atlantic and surface trough extends south across the
western Carolinas. So dry forecast with some clouds and warmer
temps, above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Ensembles and deterministic indicate upper ridge axis over the
area Tuesday, then shifting east upper low moves into the
northern Plains and southwest flow aloft develops. So increase
in mid level moisture into Midweek. Ensembles show an
anomalously deep low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with
zonal flow over the area. This trough may push a cold front into
the area late Thursday into Friday. So slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms late in the week. NBM temperatures remain
above normal even behind the frontal passage &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concerns this forecast period continue to be the strong
winds.

Strong west winds expected to continue through around 01z with
gusts of 30 kts or greater likely. The strongest gusts are
anticipated between 19z to 23z at all terminals. Winds ease some
after 01z, but still anticipated to gust to 20 kts are so
through about 05z before diminishing to 6-10 kts. Winds increase
again and shift to more to the northwest after 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$