220
FXUS61 KCAR 111553
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1153 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through tonight. A warm
front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday night
and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night
and Tuesday then crosses the region Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Surface high pressure centered across the Gulf of Saint
Lawrence will ridge across the region this afternoon. Aloft,
upper troffing re-develops with a disturbance moving through the
trof. Forecast soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates
this afternoon which will support diurnal cloud development
along with isolated showers. Otherwise, expect partly
sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area through the
afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from
the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Have slightly
increased expected high temperatures across much of the region
with this update. Have also updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected afternoon clouds.

Previous Discussion...
By tonight, the ridge starts to weaken, which will help keep
cloud cover across the south, but decrease in the north. Temps
in the north could reach towards freezing, however, if the
clouds return later in the night, then temps will hover just
above freezing.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather is expected through the period. On Sunday, an
upper low will be over the area, but high pressure at the
surface. Little moisture will be available for shower activity
beyond a few sprinkles, but enough 850mb should be in place for
partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday. The clouds will help
limit highs to around 60F. Light winds and clearing skies will
promote strong radiational cooling Sunday night as lows drop
into the 30s. The frost/freeze program will be in effect for
Bangor and Downeast by Sunday night, but temps do not look cold
enough for frost at this point.

Upper level ridging builds Monday and the surface high builds
east of the area. Temps will warm to the low to mid 60s. That
could generate some modest instability in the 850 to 700 mb
layer with partly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles.

Clear skies and light winds will allow a shallow radiation
inversion to develop Monday night with lows dropping to the
lower 40s, but clouds increase later in the night ahead of an
approaching warm front. Cannot rule out rain by late night, but
with very dry air in place and upstream blocking, the front will
make slow progress.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wetter and warmer pattern emerges in the long term. Blocking
the the Atlantic will keep a slow-moving frontal system in the
area Tuesday and Wednesday...possibly into Thursday. In general,
a northern stream warm front moves into the area Tuesday. A
trailing cold front then moves into the area Tuesday night and
stalls. At that point, deep southern stream moisture is pulled
northward along the stalled boundary into Maine late Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. There is potential for an inch or
two of rainfall, but it is still uncertain exactly where the
front stalls and where that heavier precip is focused. Given the
uncertainties, have capped PoPs at 70 percent or less Tuesday
into Wednesday and went with a more progressive NBM solution to
push rain out of the area Thursday. Part of the uncertainty for
Wednesday night into Thursday revolves around how the southern
stream system phases with the northern branch. In the case of
ECMWF, the southern stream system becomes a vertically stacked
cut off south of the area and precip ends earlier than GFS and
GEMS solutions.

Once the system does move out Thursday into Friday, the
expectation is for mild temps and upper ridging. Readings in
the 70s would be possible by next Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected this afternoon into tonight.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon through tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night through Monday night...VFR with light winds

Tuesday into Wednesday...MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs and vis
reductions in rain. South winds 10 to 15 kt. LLWS possible
Tuesday night.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this
afternoon through tonight. Isolated late afternoon showers.

SHORT TERM: Quiet conditions until Tuesday when fog becomes
increasing likely. Long period south swell Tuesday night into
Friday could be over 5 ft and necessitate a Small Craft
Advisory.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Norcross/MCW
Marine...Norcross/MCW