Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 222004
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
404 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the region with clear
skies and a warming trend into Tuesday. The chance for rain
increases by Wednesday as a surface low tracks into the state
from the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much to talk about in the near term with high 1032mb
surface high pressure building in across southern New England
tomorrow. Warming trend will begin under sunny skies and light
westerly winds. The day will start off the chilly side though
with a dry airmass in place and strong radiational cooling.
Temperatures will quickly rebound as the strong late April sun
warms most areas into the 50s. Enjoy the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday will be a `banner day` across the CWA, with partly to
mostly sunny skies and highs surging into the 60s almost
everywhere except the coast and higher elevations. Highs were
bumped up for central and northern areas, based on 850mb temps
of +1C to +3C and expectations of decent mixing. Temps for
Bangor and the the coast looked good and weren`t changed
significantly. An increasing S`ly component to the winds Tue
afternoon will likely cap Bangor`s temps in the mid 60s -
otherwise upper 60s would be possible. Some scattered clouds
will move into central and northern areas by later Tue afternoon
as the next system approaches.

As the upper low associated with this next system dives SE
across the eastern Great Lakes during the day Wed, overcast
skies will move during the morning. Rain looks likely to reach
southern and western edges of the CWA by midday, then spread
north and east during the afternoon hours. Rain totals through
Wed afternoon will likely be on the light side along the NB
border and in the St. John Valley. But by 00z Thu, over a
quarter inch is possible from Moosehead Lake down through
coastal Downeast, with heavier rain possible into the long-term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An additional half inch or so of rain appears quite possible
Between later Wed evening and Thu afternoon. The GFS currently
has, by far, the deepest upper low and strongest surface low,
and consequently shows some more vigorous precip around the
surface low as it occludes over northern Maine. The most likely
chance for heavier rain totals will be central and eastern
areas, especially for Bangor and Downeast. How much rain falls
for northwestern zones will depend partly on how strong the
system is and how much moisture can wrap around the surface low
Thu and Thu night.

Some shallow shortwave upper ridging and a weak surface ridge
will likely bring a break in precip for later Thu night into
Fri, though clouds may not fully clear from the CWA. Another
broad upper trough should bring some precip to the state over
the weekend, but significant disagreement remains on the details
of the timing of the upper trough and when any surface system
will bring rain to the CWA. Thus, POPs were largely kept to
chance, except for some low-end likely POPs for the Central
Highlands and North Woods.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with high pressure firmly in control.
No impacts to aviation operations expected through Monday.


SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through Tue night, though a
mid-level deck may move in Tue night. Clouds will lower during
the day Wed, with MVFR to IFR CIGs expected Wed afternoon into
Thu eve, with locally MVFR vsby in areas of heavier rain.
Conditions clear back to MVFR and then VFR on Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on
Monday bringing light winds and small waves. No issues expected
on the coastal waters.


SHORT TERM: Moderate SW`ly winds Mon night and Tue AM will turn
more S-SSW`ly and freshen a bit Tue afternoon and evening, but
gusts should remain below 25kts. Winds will diminish a bit and
turn S-SE`ly later Tue night into Wed. Seas will build up to
3-5 ft Tue eve and night, then drop again Wed AM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice out continues on the rivers of Northern Maine today with a
few minor ice jams on the Saint John, but no impacts due to
flooding at this time. Overall the Aroostook is almost flushed
of ice in most areas with limited threat of ice jams, with
Masardis still needing to flush out completely. MODIS satellite
shot this morning showed large areas of open river even on the
upper reaches of the Saint John and Allagash. Overall the ice
jam threat remains limited. Flood concerns will quickly
transition to open water flooding as spring is finally coming
with snowmelt rates expected to rapidly increase this week with
warm temperatures, rising dewpoints and rain by Wednesday. Could
have some localized flood issues of small rivers and streams by
Wednesday as the snow really starts to melt rapidly. Mainstem
rivers will continue to rise through the week across the north
and could start to approach action stage by the weekend. We will
see how things unfold this week, but flood watches could still
be possible.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Dumont
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Dumont/Kredensor
Marine...Dumont/Kredensor
Hydrology...Dumont



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