Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190249 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1049 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will continue to build down from Canada tonight and Monday. Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pass south of the region Tuesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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1045 PM Update... Updated sky conditions as the latest Satl IR Imagery showed some clouds moving s into northern areas. Should remain mostly clear w/the exception of the Crown as clouds are expected to move in by daybreak. Adjusted the winds some mainly for topography purposes to account for low lying sites dropping below 5 mph. Low lying sites could very well hit near 0F by daybreak. Previous Discussion... Cold high pressure will continue to build down from the northwest tonight into Monday. A small upper low sliding south from Quebec will cross the area overnight tonight. This may produce some patchy stratus across the north overnight. Otherwise, the weather should remain dry. Monday will be breezy and continued cold as high pressure builds southwest of our area and low pressure both surface and aloft remains to our northeast. Some moisture wrapping south around the low will push into northern areas Monday afternoon possibly producing some light snow showers over the far north. Otherwise, Monday will turn out partly sunny over the north and mostly sunny Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CWA wl be sandwiched btwn lopres ovr Newfoundland and hipres building south out of Hudson Bay with nw flow continuing under strong pressure gradient. Mins wl continue to run well blo normal on Tue morning dropping into the single digits acrs the North Woods and into the teens along the coast. NW flow continues drg the day on Tue with skies lkly to be mosunny acrs Downeast with some stratus contg acrs the north where highs wl only top out in the u20s. L/m 30s expected for Downeast Tue aftn. By Tue night yet another system wl begin to dvlp off the mid- Atlantic with initial dvlpmnt of sfc low off of the Delmarva Tue aftn bfr secondary coastal lkly gets organized late Tue night. Appears that strong sfc high ovr Quebec wl lkly keep much in the way of pcpn out of CWA until the long term pd tho may see some high clds begin to enter Downeast in the aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term portion of the fcst wl focus on a possible nor`easter again. By 00z Thu 12z GFS indicates 983mb low svrl hundred miles south of Cape Cod, similar to CMC. Latest EC accelerates coastal into the Gulf of Maine at the same time as it is weaker with the upr lvl ridging ahd of the system as it heads northeast. With EC having trended north and west with the nor`easter and svrl members of the GFS ensembles hinting at a more left soln with the sfc low, would not be surprised to hv to boost pops Wed ngt thru Thu night. However wl go with Superblend and undercut slightly acrs the north and west for Wed night bfr going straight SB beyond this time. Am hesitant to jump on just one model run and wl allow later shifts to trend pops upward. Cyclonic flow conts thru the weekend with off and on isold to sctd snow showers. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight and Monday with the possible exception of some brief MVFR conditions over the far north overnight tonight and late Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR expected at terminals Monday night into Wednesday with possible exception of far northern terminals where isold MVFR cigs may impact sites, mainly to the north of PQI. Still watching potential for coastal storm to bring MVFR and IFR restrictions Wed night thru end of the period, especially at BGR and BHB. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will remain up through Monday for northwest winds gusting up to 25 kt. SHORT TERM: NW winds will continue to gust aoa 25kts thru around midnight Mon night before diminishing thru Wed morning. Winds then increase above SCA levels as a low pressure system moves toward the waters beginning Wed morning. Depending on the track of the system winds may approach gale force Wed evening and thru the overnight hours. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Hewitt/ Marine...Hewitt/ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.