Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 121025 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 625 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build north of the area today. Low pressure will develop off the southeast coast later today and then intensify as it moves northeast toward Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:20 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew points based on latest observations. No other changes. High pressure continues to build across the region as low pressure moves away to the east. Expect partly to mostly sunny conditions today as the ridge moves across the region. Low pressure will intensify off the Carolina Coast today and move to the northeast. This system will intensify very rapidly and move to a position well to the Southeast of Nantucket Island by early Tuesday Morning. Clouds will increase rapidly across the region tonight with light snow expected to move into southwestern areas by early Tuesday. Have used a 50/50 blend of the Gfs and Nam for this time period. Have used the precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of Gfs and Nam. For snow amounts used the snow ratio grids.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Sfc low that wil bcm our impending nor`easter is dvlpng as scheduled off of Savannah GA this mrng. Compact vort max currently rotating thru mid-MS Vly wl be the srn stream player while nr stream system is dropping into the Great Lks attm. Systems wl lkly hv phased by the start of the short term pd with nor`easter right around the 40/70 benchmark by 12z Tue. Pcpn shud just be beginning acrs swrn zones and spread north drg the daytime hrs. Temps wl be in the m/u 20s area-wide by Tue mrng with only a few degree diurnal range under cldy skies and pcpn. Expect that snow wl be heavy at times aft 15z acrs Downeast and heading north into the aftn as frontogenetical frcg enhances snowbands. Latest 00z guidance indicates an avg qpf of 0.90 inches fm 12z Tue-00z Wed. This wud put Downeast areas right along the coast approaching 8-10 inches by 00z Wed, with snowfall rates of 1-3 inches/hr late morning and into the aftn hrs. By 00z Wed ~965mb coastal low wl be sitting just south of the wrn tip of Nova Scotia. Storm conts to track up along south side of Nova Scotia before shifting north and retrograding back into New Brunswick with snow contg thru the day Wed. As of right now, will convert all but nrn Aroostook County over to winter storm warnings. Questions remain as to whether nrn Aroostook can meet warning criteria (10" in 24 hrs), especially if the storm trends just a tad further south. Will let later shifts get a better handle on potential. Storm totals look to range between 15-18 inches for central and southern areas Tue morning through Wed morning with the heaviest likely occurring late Tue morning and progressing north into late Tue aftn/evng. Locally higher amnts may be possible with steep mid-lvl lapse rates near the coast allowing for thundersnow which would result in higher snow rates. Snow wl be heavy and wet in Downeast once as with previous nor`easter and with northeast winds gusting upwards of 25-40kts expect that power outages wl occur once again on Tue/Tue night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As occurred with the nor`easter last week storm wl get hung up once again in the maritimes as hipres rmns ovr the North Atlantic. Snow showers continue thru the end of the week, especially acrs the north. High pressure wl slowly begin to build in late Fri night and rmn ovr the CWA early in the weekend. EC and CMC indicate another bndry mvg thru the area on Sun while GFS keeps strong upr lvl ridging acrs the northeast. In the interest of time hv gone with Superblend for very late in the extndd. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions early this morning then VFR conditions today and this evening. IFR conditions KBGR and KBHB late tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR expected Tue morning and continuing thru Tue night. Restrictions will continue into Thur morning as low cigs and lgt snow plague the terminals. Some improvement possible over southern terminals early Thur morning but low MVFR and ocnl IFR across the north into Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained wind speed. For Waves: Currently the primary wave system is south southeasterly long period swell (2-3 feet/9 seconds). This wave system is expected to subside to around 1 foot later this afternoon and this evening. Later this evening northeasterly wind wave will become the primary wave group and build rapidly as low pressure intensifies over the Atlantic south of Nantucket Island. Will use the NWPS to initialize the wave grids. Total Water Level: Base Tide Anomaly has been slowly decreasing since the storm event at the beginning of the month, so will keep it at 0.6 feet today and 0.5 feet Tuesday and Wednesday. Will begin to raise it again Thursday as this storm systems once again disrupts circulation in the Gulf of Maine. ETSS is favored surge model with similar conditions to last event with northeast winds in the Gulf of Maine and very long period southeasterly swell. Will use model and weight ETSS twice as much as ESTOFS. SHORT TERM: Winds will increase to >34kts Mon night and climb above storm force for the outer waters Tue morning. Seas will build to between 10-15 feet on Tuesday for the outer waters and build to between 5-10 feet in the intracoastal zones. As storm moves into the Canadian maritimes expect that winds will very slowly diminish into Wed morning before increasing again in cold advection on Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tide cycles of greatest concern are Tuesday 12:50 AM and 9:25 PM. Due to the Lunar Cycle these astronomical tides will be 2-3 feet below the highest tides of the month. Expect the greatest storm surge and largest waves to occur mid afternoon Tuesday. Due to the lower astronomical tide and timing of surge and waves, coastal flooding appears unlikely at this time. Runup, splash over, and beach erosion are expected to be minimal. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MEZ001-002. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ003>006-010. Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ052. Storm Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar Tides/Coastal Flooding... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.