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757
FXUS62 KCHS 010522
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
122 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will move through the region tonight into
Wednesday. High pressure will then prevail through late week,
before a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As we go through the overnight, a well defined shortwave pushing
through the local counties. Instability will certainly be quite
low in the absence of surface heating, but we will continue to
see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area for much of the overnight. The best chances will be across
our South Carolina counties. The trough axis will shift
offshore just before sunrise and the convective coverage is
expected to diminish. On the backside of the shortwave and the
departing convection, light winds and plenty of residual low-
level moisture should be sufficient to produce at least some
patchy fog across the inland tier of the forecast area. Lows
will be some 5-10F degrees warmer than last night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level shortwave will shift off the Carolina coast Wednesday
morning. Convection should be limited in wake of this feature,
but a few isolated showers/thunderstorms will still be possible
through the day with lingering moisture and instability,
especially along the coast.

Ridge builds overhead on Thursday before transitioning offshore
on Friday in advance of a weak shortwave moving in. This
pattern will largely act to suppress convection but will need to
monitor potential for a few storms to impact far inland areas
later Friday.

High temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s inland of the
immediate coast. Lows will span the 60s, coolest inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains the primary feature, although a
weak front will approach the region and stall before largely
dissipating. Aloft, a series of weak shortwaves will pass
through. Expect at least isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day. Highs remain in the mid/upper 80s, while
lows stay in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: A short wave moving through the area will result
in scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA at or near the KCHS and KJZI
terminals through the pre-dawn hours. This will result in a
TEMPO group of MVFR conditions at both sites. Convection will
not impact KSAV, so we have them as VFR. And early morning
fog/stratus will occur inland from all three airports.

Light offshore winds will develop early this morning, than gives
way to a light sea breeze during the early and mid afternoon
(first at KJZI, then at KCHS, then at KSAV). Isolated showers
and t-storms will form along this boundary between about 18Z and
23Z. But confidence is low of any direct impacts at the
airfields, so no mention at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in
overnight/early morning fog and stratus.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Overnight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic
will extend toward the Southeast Coast while a trough remains
inland. The pattern will favor a southerly wind around 15 kt or
less. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, largest across offshore
Georgia waters. Mariners should remain alert for a few t-storms,
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns expected. Atlantic
high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a
relatively weak gradient in the area. Wind speeds will generally
stay below 10 kt except right along the coast with the
afternoon sea breeze, and seas will mostly run 2-3 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...
MARINE...