-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
678
FXUS61 KCLE 062347
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
747 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift northeast of the area tonight before
low pressure occluding over the Dakotas lifts a warm front
across the region on Tuesday. A cold front will cross the local
area late Tuesday into Wednesday with multiple disturbances
crossing the region Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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740 PM Update...
Showers along the southern border of the CWA have largely
diminished to sprinkles. No changes needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...

The near term forecast will begin with a stationary front to
the south/southeast of the CWA and weak surface high pressure
over the northern half of the area. Showers over the far
southern border of the CWA may continue through the rest of this
afternoon, but the high will suppress the vast majority of the
showers to the south of the CWA. Showers should dissipate by
tonight and a brief period of dry weather is expected through
Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, an upper low will track northeast across the northern
Plains with a shortwave lifting northeast across the region as
surface low pressure occludes over the Dakotas. The enhanced lift
will allow the aforementioned stationary front to push north as a
warm front during the day Tuesday and the front should lift into the
area by late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening as a shortwave trough
advances east towards the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop ahead of this feature; latest CAMs suggest storms will
develop at some point during the late afternoon/early evening and
progress east across the area into Tuesday night. Within the warm
sector, there should be a nose of enhanced instability and
moisture with MLCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg, primarily in
the southwestern part of the CWA which will have the longest
residence time in the warm sector. In addition to unstable
environment, the robust wind field aloft will result in high
wind shear values, including effective bulk shear values of 50
to 60 knots. If this pans out, all severe weather hazards will
be on the table including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes (best chance in the SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk area). It
will be quite humid with precipitable water values of about 1.5
inches and can`t rule out heavy rainfall rates and potential for
localized flooding.

There`s still a bit to iron out with the mesoscale environment and
the resulting severe weather risk, primarily across the eastern half
of the area. While there`s quite a bit of confidence that severe
weather will occur somewhere in the warm sector/Enhanced Risk area,
there is still uncertainty in how quickly and how far north/east the
warm front lifts before the better upper forcing begins to move east
into the local area. There`s also potential for an initial round of
convection with the warm front Tuesday afternoon with another round
arriving with the best forcing Tuesday evening. CAMs aren`t quite on
the same page with how well this activity holds together before
dissipating. Any weakened convection could serve as a boundary for
redevelopment/intensification when the main activity moves in
Tuesday evening.

Storms should begin to lose steam as they move into a slightly more
stable environment in the eastern parts of the area Tuesday evening
into Tuesday night, as outlined in the Slight and Marginal risks for
severe weather across the remainder of the area. Convection should
largely exit to the east towards the end of the period, but can`t
rule out scattered showers through the early morning hours Wednesday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 40s into the 50s tonight before
warming into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday. Expect overnight lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly resides over the area, with mostly sunny skies
and highs in 70s to areawide (although some spots hitting 80
especially in the central to northwest Ohio region).

By Wednesday night, low pressure out of the northern Great Plains
moves east to IN/OH region by Thursday morning. Precipitation
chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday morning as the warm
front associated with low moves into the area. Instability will be
low but high shear could result in a very low severe weather threat
for our southern counties Wednesday night. Additional convection
could develop Thursday afternoon with a low severe weather threat as
well. Precipitation chances continue into Thursday night, mainly
with isolated to scattered rain showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On the backside of the departing low, isolated to scattered rain
showers persist during the day Friday as the upper-level trough
swings through. Cooler temperatures ensue through the weekend
following the departure of the low with highs down into the 60s. A
weak low and upper-level trough cross the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. Low precipitation chances continue through the rest of the
weekend, though low confidence in these precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Any lingering MVFR will lift to VFR within the first couple
hours of the TAF period and expect VFR to prevail through at
least the first half of the TAF period before MVFR ceilings
redevelop at southern terminals as a warm front lifts into the
region. Showers (and perhaps isolated thunderstorms) may
develop towards western terminals as early as Tuesday
afternoon, but the greatest chance of showers/storms will arrive
from the west near or shortly after 21Z. Can`t rule out strong
wind gusts within thunderstorms, but there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty in the placement and timing of thunderstorms so
opted for showers with a vicinity thunder mentioned for the time
being.

Winds will be out of the northeast at 5 to 10 knots tonight
before gradually shifting to the south/southeast by Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively low impact forecast from a wind/waves perspective as
there is a low chance of headlines. High pressure over the Great
Lakes departed to the east as a warm front lifts north towards the
lake tonight and Tuesday moving north across the lake Tuesday
evening. Easterly flow will probably result in some choppiness (2-4
ft waves) in the western basin before the front crosses. High
pressure briefly builds in Wednesday before another low moves
eastward just south of Lake Erie Wednesday night and Thursday.
Behind this low, northwest flow of around 15 knots could result in
some 4 ft waves, with a small chance for the need of a small craft
advisory Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Saunders