Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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553 FXUS61 KCLE 221114 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 714 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the central United States will enter the Great Lakes region tonight and cross into eastern Ontario by Sunday. This system will extend a cold front across the local area Sunday afternoon. High pressure will build into the region behind the front on Monday and remain for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... All in all, the weather for Saturday appears to be relatively quiet, but still a hot and humid day with one final day with heat risk as heat index values approach the 100 degree mark. Return flow across the region in the warm sector of a low pressure system will allow for south to southwest winds to increase across the area this afternoon. Some slight warm air advection with the flow will push temperatures slightly higher than yesterday with widespread 90s and perhaps some mid-to-upper 90s for a large portion of northern Ohio. However, the increased winds will allow for some mixing and this may drive down dew points just slightly into the mid 60s and heat index values will only be near 100 at times this afternoon. Portions of interior NE OH and NW PA could remain slightly stagnant with less mixing and that could actually allow for some isolated showers/storms, but confidence is pretty low. For tonight into Sunday, the low pressure system will translate across the Great Lakes region and extend a cold front across the forecast area. Showers and storms will develop north and west of the region today and the remnant storms will enter before dawn on Sunday. Storms will be entering a more stable air mass as they enter toward daybreak and should be on a decreasing trend in intensity and coverage, but the Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather does clip Northwest Ohio for any lingering storms with a bite with a strong to severe wind threat. Depending on the evolution of overnight convection, storms will fire in a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front early Sunday afternoon, or the atmosphere will need a stronger lift immediately with the front later in the afternoon. Regardless, storms are expected at some point during Sunday afternoon and have a mix of likely and categorical PoPs. Strong instability ahead of the front will allow for storms to have a damaging wind and/or large hail threat. Better coverage of strong to severe storms is expected east of the area where the Day 2 SPC Slight Risk is located, but depending on trends late tonight, this could be pulled west into the area once it rolls over to the Day 1 outlook. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Some lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible across the eastern tier of counties early Sunday night before high pressure begins to build east across the area resulting in widespread dry conditions returning. The exception will be far NE OH and NW PA where isolated showers are possible through Monday morning as a surface trough lingers. Although a ridging pattern will become established south of the area, a generally zonal pattern will develop across the northern US with a couple troughs moving east. The next trough is expected to move east on Tuesday will allow a low pressure centered over Canada to move a warm front north across the area and again introduce the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Initial potential will be more scattered in nature as the area lingers in the warm sector of the low, but by Tuesday night the associated cold front will begin to move east bringing a more widespread potential across the area. It is important to note that this is general timing as models are not quite in agreement with the timing yet. High temperatures on Monday will climb into the mid 80s across the western counties and only into the upper 70s for eastern counties. These temperatures will average an 10 degree rise for Tuesday as WAA and increased moisture push north ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows will follow a similar pattern with Sunday and Monday nights falling into the low to mid 60s, but only falling into the 70s Tuesday night ahead of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will likely start out with widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms as a cold front continues to make its way east across the area. As mentioned previously, the exact timing of this frontal boundary remains a bit uncertain as models are not consistent, but kept chance PoPs to start of the long term. By Wednesday night, all models suggest high pressure again building over the area and allowing conditions to dry out once more. This system will continue to influence the area through Friday. Temperatures through the long term period are looking to be closer to normal for this time of year with much of the area seeing 80s on Wednesday and Friday, but dipping into the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday which will be a much needed cool down. Overnight lows will generally linger in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Not too many changes to the first 18 hours of the aviation forecast today. The airspace will be in the warm sector of a low pressure system that will move through the Great Lakes region this weekend. Return flow across the region will allow for a typical generic warm sector with increased southwest flow and afternoon cumulus. Unlike previous days, believe the forecast will be mainly dry with winds allowing for dew points to mix out and prevent widespread clouds and any precipitation. Cumulus will fade with sunset and wind gusts will settle overnight. Mid and high clouds will enter tonight as the associated cold front with the low pressure system approaches from the northwest. Precipitation will be decaying as it enters the airspace early Sunday, but have begun more widespread mentions of showers and storms for at least half the TAFs with a timing of higher impacts at KCLE with the longer TAF. Winds will increase out of the southwest ahead of the convection and front and gusts to 25 kt are expected. Outlook...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday afternoon with non-VFR conditions possible.
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&& .MARINE... Calm marine conditions will continue today as a near stationary boundary moves north as a warm front. Behind the warm front, winds will become established from the southwest at 5-10 knots. As the parent surface low tracks northeast across the western Great Lakes Saturday night, an increased pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will increase southwest winds across Lake Erie to 15-20 knots, gusting as high as 25 knots at times across the open waters. As the aforementioned cold front moves east on Sunday, winds will gradually shift and become northwesterly at 10-15 knots. During this entire period from Saturday night through Sunday, marine headlines may be needed to account for increasing wave height and increasing risk of rip currents. By Monday morning, high pressure again builds over the area and winds from the northwest will return to 5-10 knots into Tuesday. Another warm front will move north across the lake Tuesday followed by a cold moving east on Wednesday. High pressure will return for the end of the work week. No additional marine headlines are expected. && .CLIMATE... The records for Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Campbell CLIMATE...