Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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398 FXUS61 KCLE 081205 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 705 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Poconos will continue east today off the East Coast. Low pressure will develop over the southern Plains tonight and move northeast along a stalled front into the Great Lakes region for Monday. This low will deepen as it departs into Canada on Monday night and extend an associated cold front across the area on Tuesday. A secondary cold front will push through on Tuesday night before high pressure builds in from the west for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Minor changes to the forecast this morning. High cirrus remains overhead and still awaiting some better moisture along with diurnal heating to get some lower clouds into the region this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures around the 30 degree mark this morning are expected to rise well above normal into the mid to upper 40s. Previous Discussion... The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure today, keeping the area dry. A warm air advection regime over the region behind the high will support strong southerly flow and eventually begin transporting moisture into the region. Once this moisture enters the area, mid level clouds will overtake the region and thicken during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs today will surge above normal into the mid to upper 40s, although pockets of 50 degree temperatures are possible. With a stalled front to the northwest, the area will remain in the warm sector for tonight. As low pressure develops over the southern Plains, moisture will continue to surge into the region ahead of the system. With warm air advection and isentropic lift present over the forecast area, rain will enter overnight and persist into Monday, as the better synoptic scale lift with the surface low approaches the region. Have backed off the timing of the PoPs tonight just slightly as the best chances for rain appear to be after midnight, especially southwest. Rain fills in quickly across the area on Monday as the low moves closer and have categorical PoPs over the region with a third to half an inch of QPF. Temperatures tonight into Monday a bit tricky with cloud cover and warm air advection over the region. Believe that the WAA overhead will buck the diurnal trend overnight and temperatures will remain steady in the 40s. Given this, it will not take much from the diurnal cycle to push highs on Monday into the 50s and am pushing the higher end of most model guidance for the lower to middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure over the Central Great Lakes will continue northeast into Quebec on Monday night pulling a cold front east across the area. Widespread rain will end from west to east on Monday Night. Temperatures will fall through the day on Tuesday after a mild start in the lower 40s in eastern areas. Scattered light showers on Tuesday will transition to snow showers as they taper off. The exception will be across the snowbelt areas where snow showers will linger into Tuesday night. Although the initial cold front is still progged to come through early Tuesday, models have trended weaker with the initial push of cold advection with the much colder arctic air delayed until a secondary trough dives south out of Canada on Wednesday. Models are suggesting just minor snow accumulations through wednesday morning followed by a break on Wednesday as a wedge of drier air near 850mb spreads east across Lake Erie. Expecting a good flare up in snow shower activity Wednesday afternoon/night with the arctic front. Accumulations will depend on duration of deeper moisture and shifting flow as the surface high builds in Wednesday night. Latest model runs suggest moderate snowfall amounts possible, mainly in NW PA. Highs on Wednesday only expected to reach the mid 20`s before falling solidly into the teens on Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds east across Ohio and Pennsylvania on Thursday, disrupting any lingering lake effect snow showers. A quasi-zonal flow aloft will follow with generally quiet weather through Friday. A deepening trough along the Gulf Coast will begin to transport moisture north into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday. Temperatures will trend back up towards normal to end the week. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The airspace remains on the western fringe of high pressure over the Hudson Valley. Some high clouds remain over the region this morning and will eventually be superseded by mid-level clouds which will develop towards afternoon. Some stronger southerly winds will be in place today as some mixing brings gusts of 20 to 30 kt to the surface. As the surface high departs to the east and a front sets up to the northwest of the airspace, lower clouds will develop over the region tonight, getting closer to MVFR. Rain will develop to the southwest and enter after midnight bringing a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings to the region and some lower visibilities late in the TAF period. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday and Tuesday with low stratus and rain, changing over to snow. Non-VFR possible across the NE OH and NW PA Snow Belt Wednesday through Thursday with lake effect snow. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots today on Lake Erie. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Pennsylvania near shore waters where winds will increase to 20-25 knots this afternoon. The larger waves will be focused out over the open waters where 3 to 6 feet are expected. Breezy southerly winds will continue on Monday followed by a wind shift to the west as a cold front is pulled east across Lake Erie. Small Craft Advisories will be needed again by Tuesday and continue through Wednesday night. Strong high pressure will build overhead on Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...KEC

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