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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300548
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds over the area today then persists into
Monday night. The highs then shifts to the Middle Atlantic
Coast by Wednesday morning.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Areas of fog continue to develop and expand in coverage across
the western 2/3rds of the CWA. Light winds a moist ground and
clear skies set the perfect stage for radiation fog to develop.
A widespread area of dense fog is expected especially along and
west of a line from Lorain to Canton. Will monitor areas across
inland NE OH into NW PA and expand the fog advisory if needed.


Otherwise high pressure takes control today. The expectation is
that we have some deeper mixing this afternoon to dissipate
some of the low level moisture. However there likely still be
some areas of locally dense fog again possible as we approach
sunrise Sunday. No precipitation is expected with any morning
clouds dissipating through the afternoon. Highs today should
reach into the low to mid 70`s. Lows tonight in the 50`s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level ridge will dominate our weather pattern for this
weekend into next week. The center of this upper level ridge will be
near the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. At the surface, there will be
a high pressure system located near the eastern Great Lakes region
on Sunday. Plenty of sunshine and mostly clear skies are in the
forecast for this weekend into early next week with quiet weather.
High temperatures Sunday afternoon will top out in the middle 70s to
near 80 degrees. The center of the upper level ridge moves slightly
eastward by Monday but firmly in place over the Ohio Valley region.
Monday`s afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward on Tuesday and be
centered right over the Upper Ohio Valley region. Tuesday afternoon
may be our warmest day of this forecast period with temps reaching
the lower 80s. There could be a few spots that get into the middle
80s over northwest Ohio on Tuesday. The ridge begins to shift
further eastward as well as the surface high pressure by Wednesday.
A sharp upper level trough will develop across the north central
CONUS by mid week as well. The upper level trough will continue to
dig across the central CONUS and into the Midwest on Thursday with a
cold front sliding into the Ohio Valley region from the west late in
the day. We will remain above average ahead of that frontal passage
through Thursday. Scattered rain chances will late on Thursday as
the cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Fog will be the main issue through mid morning. Widespread dense
fog is expected to develop across northern Ohio, especially near
and west of a line from KLPR to KCAK. Expect IFR and lower
conditions to occur with a few spots trying to dip to near ZERO
visibility. The non-VFR conditions improve through the morning
with VFR conditions then expected until early Sunday morning.
This is when areas of fog may once again develop. However it
should not be as widespread Sunday morning.

Winds will be light through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings and patchy dense fog
Sunday morning.
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&&

.MARINE...
The weather will be very quiet on the lake this weekend through the
middle of next week with high pressure in control. Winds will be
from the east or northeast this weekend 5 to 10 knots and waves up
to 1 foot. By Sunday night into Monday, winds will become
southeasterly 5 to 10 knots with waves up to 1 foot. These
relatively calm conditions will last through midweek. Marine
headlines are anticipated this weekend through the middle of next
week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-
     006>010-017>020-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Griffin