Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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188 FXUS61 KCLE 151135 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 635 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure in the Tennessee Valley will move northeast and reach the lower Ohio Valley this evening as high pressure drifts across the central Great Lakes to Quebec. The low will move east off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday. Sunday night, a cold front will drop southeast across the region. High pressure will dominate the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update...Visibilities have improved in northwest Ohio so have dropped the dense fog advisory. Otherwise no significant changes. Original...Models show low pressure in western TN with deep moisture through the lower Ohio Valley. High pressure extends across the central Great Lakes and has, so far, prevented rain from reaching north into the area. Over the course of the day however, the high will drift east to southern Quebec as the low moves northeast across KY into WVA. This should allow the rain in central and southern OH to move into the area. In general will work up to categorical pops south, chance pops from FDY to CLE to YNG down to nothing at ERI. Overnight the low moves to north central WVA pulling drier air into northwest OH. Will continue with likely to categorical pops south and southeast. Sunday the low and associated moisture exit quickly east. Will begin the day with chance pops east down to slight chance CLE to MFD. Expect generally mild temps with 40s expected both today and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast begins on Sunday night with low pressure departing to the east of the area. Some upper level ridging will squeeze into the region behind this low and Sunday night looks mostly dry for the forecast area. On Monday, a cold front and upper trough will move into the area. The air mass over the region will be very dry ahead of these features so don`t expect widespread precipitation across the region. However, there will probably be enough moisture drawn from the lake to get some snow showers going in the snow belt for Monday. Do not expect accumulations to amount to much as there is essentially no synoptic moisture to work with in this situation. The cold front departs the area and high pressure builds in for Tuesday, drying the area out. Temperatures will be fairly close to normal for the area through the period as the cold front won`t bring an arctic air mass into the region. THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term forecast period begins with the extended guidance in fairly good agreement on high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region. This high will shift southeast through the day as a cold front enters the Great Lakes region for Thursday. At this point, there begins to be a decent spread in the strength and timing of the cold front and it appears that yet another low pressure system from the south will attempt to move into the region for late next week. At this point, have increasing pops starting on Thursday through the rest of the long term forecast period. Don`t have any likely pops mentioned yet due to the aforementioned timing differences but rain and snow seems headed back to the area for late next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period with 40s possible everyday. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Conditions remain mostly VFR across northern OH and nwrn PA early this morning. dense fog in the TOL area has lifted although IFR/LIFR conditions remain at KFDY and have developed at KCLE. MVFR CIGS have also moved into the KERI area as well. With high clouds over the stratus and fog, forecasting trends will remain difficult. That said, anticipate conditions improving to VFr at KFDY by 15Z and KCLE and KERI by 16z. High pressure was across the central lakes this morning while low pressure was lifting northeast out of the TN Vly. The high will continue to block the advance of precip from the south through the morning hours. This afternoon however the high will move to southern Quebec allowing the low to move northeast into the lower Ohio valley. MVFR CIGS should then advance north into the area from the south with rain moving in as well. The best chance for rain will be from KMFD to KCAK to YNG afternoon and evening but still expect rain to reach KFDY to KCLE as well. Expect widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions overnight. OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR cigs/vsbys expected Sunday in rain. Non-VFR possible across far northeast OH/northwest PA Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Low pressure entering the region from the south will allow for increasing northeasterly winds on Lake Erie today. Will retain the small craft advisory for today into Sunday as winds and waves will reach criteria at some point, especially in the central basin. The low departs the area to the east on Sunday night and a cold front will move over the eastern Lakes on Monday. Northwesterly flow will increase over the lake on Monday with the frontal passage and could see small craft conditions redevelop on the lake. High pressure builds in on Tuesday and remains in the area through Thursday. Winds will become light and variable on Tuesday before becoming from the south on Wednesday and increasing for Thursday, as a cold front approaches the lake from the west. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...TK MARINE...Sefcovic

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