Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 151955 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 355 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure continues to move southeast through the Ohio Valley toward the Carolinas. A low pressure trough is expected to extend north from the low across the local area tonight through Wednesday night. High pressure is expected to build southeast into the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. The high will then move east of the area allowing a warm front to lift north of the area Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Deep upper level low pressure system will keep a cooler cyclonic flow across the local area during this forecast period. This resulted in a surface low pressure system that moved from the Chicago area yesterday into the Ohio Valley where it is expected to then shift into the Carolinas by Tuesday. A lingering surface trough continues to extend north across the eastern half of the forecast area at this time forcing moisture into the area as well. Weak meandering outflow boundaries have been producing sporadic showers across the central portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Within the last hour or so, scattered showers have become more numerous as expected over the eastern half of the area due to the moisture present, weak upper level support, and increasing daytime heating and resultant instability. Very limited moisture exists over the western half of the area and lack of other above mentioned factors should keep the area dry through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the trough should persist over the area through tonight, Tuesday, and Tuesday night with a repetitive pattern shaping up again for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The cold northeast flow continues to keep temperatures in the 70s across the area for highs this afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight lows generally in the 50s east to lower 60s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Large upper-level low will persist over the northeastern United States, leading to continued cyclonic flow and a series of troughs moving across the region through mid-to-late week. Overall instability will be weak, but there may be enough cold air aloft to warrant marginal lake-induced instability. This combined with diurnal heating will lead to potential for scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms during peak heating Wednesday and Thursday. PoPs diminish Thursday night as the upper-level low and its associated surface begin to pivot northeast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day with lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A few inland locations may drop into the low to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure with a ridge aloft will foster dry weather through Friday, before the next upper-level low approaches from the northwest over the weekend. Yet another unsettled weekend is anticipated with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely, best chance during peak heating Sunday and Monday as the best forcing creeps across the Lower Great Lakes. Afternoon temps will be slightly warmer in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected Sunday and Monday. Increased overnight cloud cover will result in overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Surface low pressure passing well to the south of the area is extending a trough north into the eastern half of the forecast area. This trough has moisture associated with it along with some weak upper level support and a bit of day time heating instability to work with. A few boundaries floating around the area are spawning a few showers mainly near the lake and across portions of the central forecast area. This trend should continue to expand over the next few hours over the east with increasing instability across the area. Areas to the west are on the outside fringes of the moisture plume stretching north and should stay dry through the period. Expecting activity to wane a bit after sunset and redevelop again during the day tomorrow. Activity will be so widely scattered and only minimal chances expected for tomorrow. Surface trough axis could move some lower level ceilings into Youngstown and Akron-Canton area overnight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. && .MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the western basin through tonight due to onshore flow with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots. Opted to add Cuyahoga County to the Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement due to enhanced onshore flow this evening. A few spots outside of the headline area may see brief peak sustained winds around 20 knots, but expect duration to be too short to warrant any headlines. Otherwise, expect northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots through Wednesday before becoming variable at 10 knots or less through the first half of the weekend. Cool air aloft and warm water at the surface along with potential land breeze/lake-enhanced showers will lead to a chance of waterspouts through Thursday, primarily overnight into the early morning hours.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for OHZ007- 009>011. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ143>146.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Maines

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