Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251907 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 307 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front continues to weaken as it drifts southeastward across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. High pressure will ridge into the region from the west overnight, eventually becoming centered over Ohio Monday night. This high then persists over the region into Tuesday before another weak cold front sags southward to northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A stronger storm system arrives by Thursday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold front continues to weaken as it drifts southeastward across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Cloud cover is decreasing in coverage as we mix out the low level moisture. The overall trend should be a gradual decrease in humidity through the evening. It still looks like there is a slim chance of a shower or 2 across the central CWA this evening as the weakening frontal boundary interacts with moist air and heating ahead of it. Dont think it will amount to much and will likely be removed quickly by later shifts. There has been a decent mix of the low level atmosphere this afternoon which should help to limit the coverage of fog across the region by sunrise Monday. For now will only mention some patchy fog across interior areas of eastern OH and NW PA. Lows tonight range from the upper 50`s across interior NW PA to the mid/upper 60`s. High pressure will control the weather on Monday with only a few afternoon cumulus. There could be a bit more high level smoke that may filter the sunshine by afternoon. Otherwise it looks like a warm day with highs mostly in the 80`s. A few locations across NW OH may touch 90 degrees. Continued dry Monday night as high pressure positions itself over Ohio. Lows generally in the 60`s
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure will be positioned over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to hover between 0.75 to 1 inch Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. With northwest flow aloft in place, an embedded wave upstream will dive southeast late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to increase to 1.25 to 1.5 inches late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The deeper moisture will reside over northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio Tuesday night into Wednesday. With the approaching short wave, mid layer instability and moisture will yield convection mainly northeast of a Cleveland to Youngstown line Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Moisture field are expected to change through mid week. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the period, with stronger winds near thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, with NW PA cooling to the low 80s on Wednesday with another short wave approaching late Wednesday into Thursday. Muggy conditions will persist a bit longer. Overnight lows are expected to drop in the low to mid 60s, with the coolest temperatures east of I71 and inland from Lake Erie.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A stronger wave is expected dive southeast and track across the forecast area Thursday morning. A possible thunderstorm complex is possible associated with this wave. Euro and GFS are slowly coming closer in agreement with some development over Lower Michigan early Thursday and diving southeast through the day period on Thursday. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the placement of the initial convection as Euro has it developing over southwest Michigan and GFS over central Lower Michigan. Will maintain rain chance with thunderstorms for Thursday. Rain chances should decrease north to south Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. This will allow for a break of precipitation through Friday and Saturday. High temperature ahead of the short wave frontal passage on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s, decreasing to the upper 70s to low 80s for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will also gradually decrease from the low to mid 60s on Thursday night to the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday night.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... VFR conditions are expected to continue into Monday morning at most locations. Will need to watch for some MVFR fog across interior eastern OH and NW PA. If it develops it will be from 10Z-13Z. West to northwest winds of 5-10 knots will become light and variable overnight. Light northwest winds continue on Monday. However a lake breeze will enhance winds late morning into the afternoon with speeds up to 12 knots possible. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms Tuesday night at YNG/ERI. Otherwise, IFR possible with showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. && .MARINE...
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Expecting northwest winds 5 to 10 knots through tonight. High pressure will build and maintain fair weather and calm marine conditions through midweek. Differential heating will yield wind shifts during the afternoon along the lakeshore. On Wednesday night, winds will begin to ramp back up to 10-15 knots from the southwest as an cold front approaches from the west. The cold front is expected to move across the area on Thursday, allow winds to again shift and become north-northwesterly.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...FZ LONG TERM...FZ AVIATION...MM MARINE...FZ

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