Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 192004 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 404 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Big changes to our weather on the way as a storm system will affect the area for the first day of Spring tomorrow. The storm will primarily affect the southern half of the area. It will initially bring a mixture of rain and snow but by Tuesday night and Wednesday primarily snow will fall and significant accumulations are possible across southern Pennsylvania. Cooler than average temperatures will dominate the pattern through the end of the week, with the next opportunity for precipitation coming this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Increasing clouds tonight. HRRR shows precip shield moving towards CWA in the pre dawn hours. Temperatures should be cold enough for snow across the south, but QPF should be light enough to limit any accumulations. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Complicated storm system with snow or mixed precipitation across southern half of CWA. Initially the temperature profile and intensities of the precip suggest snow will have trouble sticking in valleys. Higher elevations will see more accumulating snow. Temperature profiles do cool later in day with a better chance of accumulating snow for valley locales as well. Snow will continue into evening and Wednesday and will issue a Winter Storm Watch for southern zones for the long duration of potential snow fall. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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By daybreak Wednesday the storm is expected to be reorganizing off the Mid Atlantic before tracking off south of Nantucket island. The upper trough/low will keep some light precip lingering Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. An additional coating of snow is possible as surface temperatures chill down into the 20s in most areas Tuesday night. By later Wednesday cool and drier air will begin filtering in. Weak high pressure will keep us fair through Friday before the next approach storm brings a chance of rain or snow Saturday night and Sunday. This looks to be a clipper type way which will move through the area quickly with high pressure following for next Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR for into early morning hours. Patchy light rain and snow will be possible by sunrise on Tuesday...mainly along the PA...MD border. Lower cigs and snow for southern PA on Tue continuing into Wed. Outlook... Tue...Snow/restrictions likely southern Pa. Tue night and Wed...more snow at times. Restrictions at times. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. && .CLIMATE... The Spring (Vernal) Equinox will be at 12:15 PM on Tuesday, March 20. Sunrise in State College, PA will be 7:14 AM and sunset at 7:23 PM, for a total day length of just over 12 hours. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for PAZ056>059-063. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for PAZ033>036-064>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...La Corte/Gartner AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.