Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270700 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain mild with a few periods of showers through Wednesday night. Showers end by Thursday night, and it will turn breezy and cooler through Friday. Another period of showers is expected on Saturday before conditions dry out Easter Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Isolated rain showers traversing the NW Mountains early this morning, as well as portions of the Laurel Highlands. Coverage is quite meager, but model consensus consolidates scattered showers over south central/southeastern PA by daybreak this morning. Overnight temps stay mild, ranging from the low to middle 40s which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the end of March. Patchy fog will result from any areas of partial clearing, and is most likely in the Susquehanna Valley where moisture dewpoint depressions are smallest. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the region tomorrow. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of this feature will keep the rain showers in forecast with max POPs across the eastern portion of the forecast area. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with max temps in the 50-60F range. A few showers linger into Wednesday night with the main focus for steadier rain shifting into extreme southeast PA with a low pressure system having developed in Georgia and South Carolina. This low will track inland along the coast and bring a stream south easterly flow and moisture briefly into the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model guidance has trended east with the track of this storm over the past few cycles, with a 40% chance of greater than 0.50 inch in 24 hours ending 18z Thu confined to far eastern Lancaster county (higher probs east of there). The resulting rain will struggle to reach any further west than the lower Susquehanna valley. Temperatures on Thursday will also begin to cool behind the departing cold front giving us near normal temperatures to end the week. Highs Thursday will be in the low 50s to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values near 30% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures in the 50s and marginal fine fuel moisture may be limiting factors. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR-to-MVFR cigs across much of central PA as of 06Z obs with (L)IFR cigs across SE PA where some clearing has enhanced the fog potential. There is fairly high (70-80%) confidence on IFR/LIFR restrictions at MDT/LNS overnight, but lower confidence (40-50%) on when exactly these lower cigs will develop at these airfields. Recent guidance is suggesting that once MDT/LNS resolve towards IFR, there is moderate-to-high (60-70%) confidence in these restrictions continuing through 06Z Thursday. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs are expected to occur overnight with all airfields at JST showing some potential at IFR cigs. HREF guidance suggests that the airfields across the east (IPT) and south (AOO) will have higher probabilities (40-60%) of IFR conds between 09Z-12Z. SREF guidance suggests slightly higher probabilities (70-90%) while also outlining BFD/UNV potentially making a run towards IFR cigs. MVFR cigs are expected to prevail after 14Z with some potential for borderline-VFR cigs by the evening hours. Outlook... Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E. Thu night-Fri...Improving conds. Sat and Sun...Light rain possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert AVIATION...NPB

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