Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS State College, PA
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 270700
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
300 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain mild with a few periods of showers through Wednesday
night. Showers end by Thursday night, and it will turn breezy and
cooler through Friday. Another period of showers is expected on
Saturday before conditions dry out Easter Sunday.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated rain showers traversing the NW Mountains early this
morning, as well as portions of the Laurel Highlands. Coverage
is quite meager, but model consensus consolidates scattered
showers over south central/southeastern PA by daybreak
this morning. Overnight temps stay mild, ranging from the low to
middle 40s which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the end
of March. Patchy fog will result from any areas of partial
clearing, and is most likely in the Susquehanna Valley where
moisture dewpoint depressions are smallest.
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.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the
region tomorrow. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of
this feature will keep the rain showers in forecast with max
POPs across the eastern portion of the forecast area. Wednesday
will be the warmest day of the week with max temps in the
50-60F range. A few showers linger into Wednesday night with
the main focus for steadier rain shifting into extreme southeast
PA with a low pressure system having developed in Georgia and
South Carolina.
This low will track inland along the coast and bring a stream
south easterly flow and moisture briefly into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model guidance has
trended east with the track of this storm over the past few
cycles, with a 40% chance of greater than 0.50 inch in 24 hours
ending 18z Thu confined to far eastern Lancaster county (higher
probs east of there). The resulting rain will struggle to reach
any further west than the lower Susquehanna valley.
Temperatures on Thursday will also begin to cool behind the
departing cold front giving us near normal temperatures to end
the week. Highs Thursday will be in the low 50s to upper 40s.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up
to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel
Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale
subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri
afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values
near 30% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures
in the 50s and marginal fine fuel moisture may be limiting
factors.
A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a
somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week
associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.
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.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR-to-MVFR cigs across much of central PA as of 06Z obs with
(L)IFR cigs across SE PA where some clearing has enhanced the
fog potential. There is fairly high (70-80%) confidence on
IFR/LIFR restrictions at MDT/LNS overnight, but lower confidence
(40-50%) on when exactly these lower cigs will develop at these
airfields. Recent guidance is suggesting that once MDT/LNS
resolve towards IFR, there is moderate-to-high (60-70%)
confidence in these restrictions continuing through 06Z
Thursday.
Elsewhere, MVFR cigs are expected to occur overnight with all
airfields at JST showing some potential at IFR cigs. HREF
guidance suggests that the airfields across the east (IPT) and
south (AOO) will have higher probabilities (40-60%) of IFR conds
between 09Z-12Z. SREF guidance suggests slightly higher
probabilities (70-90%) while also outlining BFD/UNV potentially
making a run towards IFR cigs. MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
after 14Z with some potential for borderline-VFR cigs by the
evening hours.
Outlook...
Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.
Thu night-Fri...Improving conds.
Sat and Sun...Light rain possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert
AVIATION...NPB