Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221837 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 237 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep us fair through Monday. Developing low pressure will lift northeast along the eastern seaboard during the middle of the week. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the northeast conus. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Some high-level moisture producing only thin cirrus today with surface high pressure in control. Temps peaking in the lower to mid 60s with dry conditions as dewpoints have mixed down to the teens for much of the NE half of CWA. Quiet tonight into Monday as ridge moves through. Highs will be a bit warmer than today with a SE wind being the harbinger of the clouds and rain that will follow for midweek.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward under the Rex Block, bringing potential for the first light showers to reach SW PA by Tuesday morning. Overnight temps will be a bit milder, in the 40s most locales, though drier air and less clouds in the northern mountains and northeast may bring lows down into the upper 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The slow moving upper low over Nebraska is slated to continue crawling eastward under the Rex Block with the first showers expected to reach SW PA by Tuesday morning. The low is forecast to open up and track NE through the region Tuesday-Wednesday accompanied by periods of rain...no snow! Several other shortwaves are stacked up in the flow well to our west and they will eventually conspire to carve out a new long wave trough over the eastern US by the end of the week and weekend. In the meantime there are differences in the timing details as we move into Thursday and Friday. The GFS/GEFS are faster with the upstream wave dropping out of the upper Gr Lakes, suggesting rain makes a rapid return by Friday. The EC is again slower on Friday, suggesting a dry and mild day. With such low confidence, I leaned toward the model blended guidances which give chance POPs. The differences continue into the weekend with the EC making the eastern trough less intense than the GFS/GEFS. The deeper/colder GFS/GEFS would lead to a chance of snow showers over the western and northern mountains Saturday and Saturday night. Too early to bite on that as yet. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure keeps VFR conditions ongoing through Monday. Cig restrictions creep into JST Mon night along with chance for showers. Expanding ceiling restrictions over the west Tue - and areawide Tue night into Wed night in rain. Outlook... Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely PM from S-N. Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs. Fri...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...RXR

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