Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191849 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will build into the area for the next 4 or 5 days. After a cold day on Friday, there will be a gradual warming trend over the weekend which will continue through the first part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... Post-frontal flow is taking over with very dry air/dewpoints arriving as expected. Gusts into the 30s still possible this evening in the Laurels, but the wind should get less gusty for the night. Little left on the radar and the visible loop from GOES-E shows a neat view of two distinct layers of clouds perpendicular to each other over Central PA. The lower deck is being scoured out. Other than some widely sct SHSN or flurries NW this evening/early tonight, it will be dry. Will not mention any accums. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Wind keeps up, but gets less gusty overnight. This creates a dilemma for overnight temp forecast. The mixed atmos will keep the temps from bottoming out. However, the overall brute-force cooling by the airmass arriving will drop temps in the SE to near or slightly below freezing. Only the metro/urban areas will stay above freezing. Some sheltered valleys may get into the u20s. The upper trough swings totally out on Friday with NW flow left for the day. This will keep it much colder than normal for Friday. Wind stays up in the teens during the day. Good news is that a giant sfc high pressure area over the upper plains/midwest slides in and begins to modify under the April sun this weekend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shallow stratocu and flurries will persist across the NW half of the state Thursday night and early Friday, with partly cloudy skies in the SE. Winds should stay up enough through daybreak Friday to prevent a frost or freeze in the SE zones, while lows elsewhere dip into the mid 20s to low 30s. Friday and beyond, there will be a welcome break of lighter wind, sunshine and milder temps as a large area of high pressure moves out of the midwest. Yet another upper low in this busy pattern looks to drop into the deep south toward the end of the period. This may spread some precipitation northward toward our region for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Already into VFR for the central and eastern terminals, and should remain there except for a stray flurry/light snow shower this evening at AOO, UNV and IPT. BFD and JST could see cigs lower through the night, but the air is getting very dry with lower 20 dewpoints already in BFD and teens should be arriving this evening. This may be enough to keep the cloud deck above 1kft. Wind now NW at all sites and aligned flow is helping mix down gusts near 30kts in the Laurels. Expect very little variation in dir through the night, but very slight/shallow decoupling should result in less gustiness overnight. Conditions improve rapidly over the west Fri with the arrival of a big high pressure area which will last through the weekend. The wind will still be up in the 10-15kt range with gusts into the l20s though. Outlook... Sat-Mon...VFR/no sig wx. Tues...VFR. SHRA poss, mainly S. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.