Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Summer-like weather will persist through the weekend with
anomalously warm temperatures and chances of thunderstorms. A deep
upper level cyclone centered over the Great Basin will move
little today but will begin to lift out toward the central part of
the country Monday night and Tuesday. A minor upper level trough
evident on satellite imagery in western New Mexico early this
morning will move into eastern Colorado this afternoon and into
Nebraska by midnight. A surface cyclone will deepen in eastern
Colorado during the day today, and south to southeast low level
winds will increase to around 20kts with gusts in excess of 30kts.
Low level moisture is not likely to mix out as much as occurred
Saturday, and H8 temperatures this afternoon will be slightly
cooler than Saturday. As a consequence, temperatures this
afternoon will not be quite as warm as those observed Saturday but
still will reach the low to mid 90s.

Considerable instability will develop this afternoon with CAPE
values around 2000 J/KG and near dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
mid levels of the atmosphere. Bulk shear of 30-35 knots should
exist in western Kansas, and this should be sufficient to support
some updraft rotation. The convective allowing models are in
reasonably good agreement with thunderstorm development around 21Z
near the Colorado border with subsequent propagation to the east-
northeast. The thunderstorms are likely to weaken after sunset as
the boundary layer begins to stabilize, although a 30-35KT low
level jet may support a more persistent cluster in Nebraska near
the edge of the EML.

Strong south winds will continue Sunday night, and minimum
temperatures will be warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

A blocky flow pattern will continue the first part of the week
with a sharp upper level ridge between Alberto and the upper level
cyclone over the Rockies. A vigorous upper level trough rotating
around the upper level cyclone over the western United States will
move through the southern Rockies and approach eastern Colorado
Monday afternoon. Considerable instability will develop again
Monday, and thunderstorms are likely to initiate along a dryline
near the Colorado border by late afternoon and to propagate to the
east during the evening hours. Once again, sufficient shear will
be present to support rotating updrafts, and large hail and high
winds can be expected. The best chance for a tornado probably will
be farther north where residual outflow from Sunday night
thunderstorms may result in stronger low level shear, but
mesoscale details are difficult to anticipate.

The upper level cyclone will open up and move across the central
United States Tuesday as the remnants of Alberto reach the upper
Midwest. The GFS is very aggressive with development of a
mesoscale thunderstorm cluster that dumps copious amounts of rain
on southwest Kansas, but confidence in this solution is not high.
There may be an area of thunderstorms in western Kansas Tuesday in
the region of upward vertical motion with the upper level trough
as mid level cold air advection erodes the mid level warm pool,
but confidence in evolution of the cluster is low. Considerable
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms may drop temperatures a few
degrees Tuesday.

A short wave ridge will move across central United States
Wednesday, and thunderstorm chances will decrease. Weak upslope
flow into eastern Colorado may support a few thunderstorms in the
higher terrain that could propagate across the Colorado border
before dying Wednesday evening.

Another upper level trough will dig into the western United
States Wednesday night and Thursday while subtropical high
pressure strengthens from Mexico to southern Oklahoma. A strong
EML will move back into Kansas Thursday and Friday with H7
temperatures in excess of 15C by Friday morning. Southwest low
level flow and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor very warm
temperatures Thursday and Friday, and it is likely that highs
Friday will exceed 100 degrees in much of southwest Kansas.
Slightly cooler air will return behind a cold front Saturday, but
south central Kansas likely will be extremely warm again Saturday.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean should approach
the Maritime Continent the first week of June, and a progressive
upper level trough likely will move over the subtropical ridge and
deepen in the Midwest by 6-7 June. There will be continued
chances for thunderstorms as the trough propagates along the
periphery of the subtropical high, but the favored area for
thunderstorms may be north of southwest Kansas. Very hot weather
is likely to develop and persist in New Mexico and west Texas, and
Kansas likely will be on the edge of the extreme heat the first
part of June.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions will continue through Monday except for local
visibility restrictions of near 5 miles in mist around sunrise. An
area of upper level low pressure over the Great Basin will move
little today. A minor upper level trough will progress from
western New Mexico to eastern Colorado by 00Z, and an area of low
pressure will deepen in eastern Colorado.

Widespread thin broken cirriform cloudiness with bases aoa 250
can be expected this morning but should thin by afternoon. Low
level southeast winds 10-15kts will increase to near 20kts with
gusts to 30kts by 15Z. A few thunderstorms with bases near 070
will develop after 21Z near the Colorado border and move to near
DDC by 01z. The thunderstorms will weaken and dissipate before
05z, leaving scattered clouds near 080 and broken high level


Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

A dryline is likely to move into far southwest Kansas Monday
afternoon. Strong south to southwest winds in a deeply mixed
boundary layer with relative humidities of 15% to 20% may result
in active fire behavior. Some greenup has occurred following rain
last week, and sufficient vegetative moisture exists in most areas
to reduce the potential for extreme fire behavior.


DDC  95  68  91  66 /  10  20  20  50
GCK  95  67  93  64 /  20  30  50  50
EHA  96  64  93  61 /  20  10  30  20
LBL  96  68  92  65 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  95  68  91  65 /   0  10  10  40
P28  95  68  93  69 /   0  10   0  30




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