Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 110429
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1129 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Today through Wednesday...The main forecast concern was on the
lingering storm chances in the southeast tonight. Then another
round of storms are possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
depending on which model solution holds true. An active weather
pattern looks to persist through the end of the work week.

Surface high pressure builds into the state will keep any
convection to the south and west of the forecast area later
tonight through Tuesday night. Shortwave looks to cut across the
Central Plains early Wednesday morning and bring a potential MCS
across the forecast area through the day Wednesday. The ECMWF is a
bit more bullish with this MCS and further south than the GFS.
The instability gradient sets up over northwest to south-central
Iowa with decent shear present. Uncertainty remains with the
strength of the shortwave and thus the severity potential, but
leaning towards a better chance for severe weather on Wednesday.

Another shortwave moves through the state Thursday providing
additional storm chances.  The instability looks weaker than
Wednesday but the 0-6km shear seems good enough for thunderstorm
sustainability. Then by Friday night into Saturday, a cold front
sweeps through the state and brings yet another round of storms to
the state.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night/
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period, with no
impacts to aviation.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...Lee



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