Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 092319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU APR 9 2020

Today`s forecast concerns focus on temperatures, as they will be
jumping up and down over the next 4 days, with Freezing warning
needed at times and some precipitable weather over the weekend.

Satellite imagery today shows a split flow still in place across the
western half of the Nation, as a large cutoff low slowly spins its
way across southern California. Back to the east, a large trough is
noted over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, helping sweep a cold
surface high from Alberta across the Central and Southern Plains.
And, it`s this cold Alberta surface high that is responsible for
temperatures between 20 to 30 degrees colder than yesterday, along
with a strong and gusty northwest wind.

For tonight through Friday...the dry, cold, Alberta surface high
sliding across the Plains States will be our dominate feature
through the end of the work week. Current timing still has the
center of the surface high sweeping across the Kansas-Missouri
border Friday morning, which will result in light and variable winds
to start the day Friday. However, this will also result in good
radiational cooling overnight, which will allow widespread sub-
freezing temperatures by Friday morning. Therefore, will continue
the Freeze Warning for eastern Kansas and a substantial part of
northern Missouri. Areas where the Freeze Warning is not issued is
not because it isn`t cold, but because the sensitive plants, that
would be harmed by the hard freeze, haven`t really started to bloom
significantly yet. On the up side, the cold surface high will slide
off to our east Friday, allowing a warming southerly wind to
prevail, though the effects wont really be noticed till Saturday.

For the weekend...we will see a bit of a brief warm up along with a
bit of rain as the cutoff low over California opens up and gets
swept up by the prevailing westerlies. As this occurs we expect a
return of western Gulf moisture as we move into and through the
weekend, which will 1) result in some warmer temperatures --highs in
the 60s-- Saturday, but also widespread chances for rain,
particularly Saturday night into Sunday. Saturday`s rain focus looks
to be across far northern Missouri, north of Highway 36 where the
warm air advection will be lifting a warm front. However, Saturday
night into Sunday the now open shortwave trough will be scooting
east across the Southern Plains, and will bring a cold front
sweeping back across the region Sunday, which will make for a wet,
rainy, and for some, cold day. Central Missouri may still see some
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, but western and northwestern
Missouri will be cool and wet. At issue for Sunday will be whether
temperatures fall fast enough to produce some snow on the backside
of the system that is bringing the rain. But, current timing makes
is look as if there is only a small chance for that to occur along
the Iowa border Sunday evening.

Next Work Week...is going to start cold. The weekend warm up will
will be followed by a significant cool down as a large trough takes
form across the Nation after the cutoff low opens up and gets
absorbed into the broader flow. This may result in the need for
Freeze warnings again Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT THU APR 9 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The higher wind
gusts will start to die down around 3-4Z with light winds expected
through the rest of the period. There will be a wind shift to the
south in the last morning which will last through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for MOZ001-002-
     011>013-020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     023>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Barham



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