Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2018

Primary forecast focus remains on rain chances tomorrow into
Thursday.

Goodness, if it wasn`t for the date changing on my watch, you`d
think we were stuck in a Groundhog Day situation, another day of
highs in the 50s across the region. Luckily, it looks as if we`ll
get a break in the monotony, after days of high pressure and warm
air advection, our 500mb trough will finally venture off the New
Mexico highlands, skirt the Trans Pecos and Edwards Plateau, and
lift across the western high plains of Texas and into the Sooner
state. The menagerie of model solutions at our disposal remain in
good agreement, with the 500mb trough maintaining a southerly track,
across the Texas Hill country, with the trough`s axis extending from
the Mid-Missouri Valley to the Rio Grande Valley by Wednesday
Morning. Rain chances will increase in the afternoon as a short wave
trough rushes in off the South Dakota Badlands and across the
Nebraska Sandhills by midday, Wednesday. Light rain chances will
carry on through the evening and through Thursday before the surface
trough clears the region by mid afternoon. This will bring us
cooler, but still slightly above normal temperatures, to close out
the week, in the middle 40s overall. For the weekend, long range
solutions remain divided, but general consensus is for a weak short
wave to swing through, with a chance for some precipitation,
primarily in northern Missouri and Iowa Saturday night into Sunday.
&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST MON DEC 17 2018

Overhead cirrus canopy will continue to advect into the area
overnight out of the southwest, with cloud coverage gradually
increasing Tuesday afternoon, particularly after sunset.
Otherwise, surface winds will increase slightly by the late
morning hours before slackening after sunset Tuesday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Welsh



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