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000
FXUS63 KEAX 011201
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 405 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

Key Messages:

- Precipitation exits the region to the northeast by late
  morning.

- Another round of light precipitation is likely this afternoon
  and evening, with some light snow possible. Little to no
  accumulations are expected.

- Chilly again tomorrow with another chance for light rain
  Saturday night.

- Dry conditions set in on Sunday, with temperatures warming to
  seasonal normals for Sunday through mid week.

Discussion:

Widespread light rain with isolated pockets of moderate rain
continues this morning on the north northwest side of the surface
low that is currently located in the vicinity of Sedalia. The
heaviest axis of rain has moved on from the Kansas City metro, and
is currently located just east of St. Joseph toward Carrollton.
Colder air is moving in from the northwest, with Maryville
currently sitting at 35 degrees. Rain will continue to shift off
to the northeast through the remainder of the morning hours, and
it remains possible that temperature profiles could cool enough to
allow for a transition to freezing rain or snow, although little
to no accumulations of ice and/or snow is expected before
precipitation completely exits the forecast area by mid to late
morning.

Another round of light precipitation is likely to develop by early
afternoon in the vicinity of KC up toward St. Joseph, moving to
the east northeast through the remainder of the afternoon hours.
Precipitation will likely be snow for areas north of a KC to
Kirksville line with rain to the south. Little to no accumulations
are expected as surface temperatures should remain above freezing.

Most of Saturday should remain dry with afternoon high
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. However, another round
of light precipitation is possible Saturday evening and night as
another shortwave trough comes translating through. As of now, it
appears that this should be in the form of rain, but some of the
high resolution guidance does suggest at least a chance for some
wet snow over NW and northern Missouri. Again, even if there is
some snow, little to no accumulations are expected.

The active weather pattern continues into Sunday as yet another
shortwave trough is progged to move through, however, as of now
this one appears to not be accompanied by precipitation. Afternoon
high temperatures for Sunday should range from as chilly as the
low 40s over northern MO to as warm as around 50 degrees toward
the Ozark Plateau. Northwest flow aloft takes hold on Monday with
low level flow turning south southwesterly, yielding afternoon
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Another fast moving shortwave
trough comes out of the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes
Region, sending a cold front through Monday night. This will turn
winds back to out of the northwest with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph
Tuesday afternoon. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures
should not drop too much Tuesday afternoon, although there is some
uncertainty as the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles for highs at
MCI are 42 and 49 degrees, respectively. Ridging starts to build
in from the west on Wednesday and strengthens on Thursday, likely
returning temperatures into the mid 50s with breezy south
southwesterly winds Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

Rain and IFR to MVFR conditions (both VSBYs and CIGs) continue at
the terminals. Rain is lingering at the KSTJ but has diminished
across the other areas this morning, with IFR to MVFR CIGs
persisting at all locations. Light snow is possible (50% to 70%)
to impact STJ between 18z and 0z this afternoon as temperatures
are expected to drop from current 12z of 35F and transition from
rain to snow. Temperatures for KMCI will also drop in which may
see some wintry mix (30 to 50%) between 19z and 0z this
afternoon. Elevated northerly winds should continue through much
of the period before turning northwesterly and diminishing by
this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...Kreller