Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151108

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Issued at 357 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019

A line of showers and thunderstorms developed near midnight and
slowly progressed eastward through the early morning hours. The
elevated storms resulted in brief heavy downpours and some gusty
winds as they pushed through. We could see some lingering showers
and isolated storms linger into the mid to late morning hours,
especially across north-central Missouri, but most areas should
remain dry today. The heat then returns under mostly sunny skies.
Highs today will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
similar temperatures expected Monday afternoon. In addition,
dewpoints in the lower 70s will allow heat indices to climb into
the mid 90s both we are back to hot and muggy conditions
at least through Tuesday.

The upper level ridge positioned across the central conus will
amplify in response to a vigorous trough pushing through the Pacific
Northwest. Strong warm air advection combined with a weak wave
translating along the ridge could allow scattered showers to develop
Monday night and again Tuesday, but overall precipitation chances
look low to start the workweek. The best chance for thunderstorms,
and more widespread precipitation chances, will be Wednesday as
the Pacific Northwest trough ejects out into the Northern Plains.
The associated cold front may work into the northern half of the forecast
area but will then stall across central Missouri or further north
near the Iowa/Missouri border. The front then looks to work north
as a warm front towards the latter half of the week. Severe
potential for Wednesday`s system appears low attm. Lack of flow
will keep overall shear profiles at 20kts or less in the 0-6km
level preventing organized storms. However, with CAPE values of
~2500 J/kg and possible inverted-V soundings...will need to keep
an eye on the potential for collapsing storms and strong downburst
type winds. On again off again storm chances will continue into at
least the first half of the weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Wind shear will
remain a concern through 13Z for KIXD/KSTJ where boundary layer
has remained decoupled. At KMCI/KMKC higher momentum winds at
850mb have been mixing down to the surface allowing for gusty
winds overnight. Gusty south winds will continue through early
afternoon before decreasing after 20-21Z.




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