497
FXUS64 KEPZ 271740
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1140 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Windy conditions expected today, along with areas of blowing dust
and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Winds subside
Sunday with quiet weather conditions and warming temperatures next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with windy
conditions expected for today. Quiet weather, with light afternoon
breezes and warming temperatures through next work week.

...Saturday...

For today, the second and final upper level trough will swing across
the Four Corners and Central Rockies regions. This system will pack
a punch, bringing breezy to windy conditions to the Borderland.
Upper level ingredients coupled with a 65-75 knot 500mb jet will
lead to gusty winds. At the surface, strengthening cyclogenesis
throughout the afternoon hours will lead to surface troughing across
New Mexico. Expect winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. A
Wind Advisory will be in effect for portions of south-central New
Mexico and far west Texas, including El Paso/Las Cruces metros,
Deming, WSMR, White Sands NP, and the Sacramento Mtns. Once again,
blowing dust will be a concern between 2-6PM, especially for areas
closest to the International Border.

This system will likely be accompanied by higher moisture values.
However, with it`s track further north across Colorado, confidence
is low in portions of the area receiving any precipitation. That
said, an isolated shower or two especially over the Gila can`t be
ruled out.

...Sunday through Next Week...

Quiet weather will return to the region with no major weather
concerns Sunday through next week. Upper level flow regime becomes
zonal as the jet slowly shifts to the north. Temperatures will
respond, increasing back above the seasonal average, with light
breezes expected during that timeframe. Models continue to hint at
the approach of the dryline from the east late next week, possibly
reaching the Rio Grande Valley next Friday/Saturday. This would
suggest at least a very minimal chance for thunderstorms locally.
Ensemble trends will need to monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Another windy day
for the region, and at all terminals. KELP will see gusty winds
through the day with an Aiport Weather Warning in effect through
03Z. Winds will be 20-30 knots with gusts to 30-40 knots through
the early evening. Winds will slowly subside areawide after 03Z to
10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. BLDU will be possible
through the afternoon at KELP and KDMN, with isolated instances of
VIS dropping to 2-5 SM. CIGS remain unlimited with FEW-SCT 080-110
ovr/vcty of KDMN and KTCS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Fire Weather conditions will be ELEVATED to CRITICAL today. Upper
level trough will pass through the region during the daytime hours.
This coupled with a stout mid to upper level jet and tightening
pressure gradient at the surface will lead to wind conditions
through the day. Thanks to modest low level moisture advection
associated with this system, Min RH values will respond and remain
above critical thresholds for NMZ110, NMZ111, and NM113 this
afternoon. The remaining fire weather zones across south-central
NM and west TX will see Min RHs in the 10-15 percent range. This
coupled with gusty winds, will promote CRITICAL fire weather
conditions. RED FLAG WARNING is in effect this afternoon and
evening for NMZ112, TXZ056, and TXZ055. However, zones not
included in the RFW will still experience ELEVATED fire weather
conditions due to the gusty winds.

For the remainder of the period, through next week, fire weather
conditions will remain ELEVATED each afternoon Sunday through
Tuesday. West-southwesterly flow will return on Wednesday. Dry air
will remain in place, along with increases in wind each afternoon.
That said, Wednesday and Thursday will feature ELEVATED to NEAR-
CRITICAL fire weather conditions.

Models continue to hint at the approach of the dryline from the east
late next week, possibly reaching the Rio Grande Valley next
Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least a very minimal chance
for thunderstorms locally. Ensemble trends will need to monitored in
the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            72  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               73  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               70  42  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               46  30  52  35 /  10  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    68  46  76  48 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              59  39  68  43 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   70  43  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  41  75  43 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72  50  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                74  43  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             78  46  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               66  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   74  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             71  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           71  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            69  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  43  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  43  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  36  66  39 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                57  35  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Timberon                 56  33  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  59  38  69  40 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                66  40  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                68  40  77  43 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             59  34  70  38 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                   63  36  72  40 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    65  40  75  43 /  10  10   0   0
Mule Creek               60  40  71  43 /  10  10   0   0
Faywood                  62  39  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   69  41  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  69  42  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           69  41  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  41  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-410-411-
     414>416-427.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird