973
FXUS64 KEWX 150010
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
710 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

While it`s on the warm side, it`s a beautiful spring day across
South-Central Texas thanks to the refreshing and less oppressive
humidity levels. The skies should remain clear to mostly clear
through the evening. Any slim chance for a storm is expected to
remain north across the San Angelo CWA through tonight. Overnight
lows tonight dip into the 60s area wide with the only exception
being locations immediately along the Rio Grande. Morning fog
generally stays confined towards the coast and could perhaps slip
into our far southeastern coastal plain counties. Otherwise, a
slight uptick in high level clouds is expected into Wednesday.

South-southeasterly low-level flow returns and increases into and
through Wednesday afternoon across the region. However, as dew
points lag a bit, humidity levels stay tolerable through the
afternoon. Expect a partly cloudy day with some high clouds and
pockets of fair weather cumulus. Higher terrain across Mexico
through orographic lift and daytime heating could kick off a few
storms late Wednesday afternoon. Pending overall strength of the
steering flow, there will be a small chance on Wednesday evening
where an isolated cell or two could cross the Rio Grande. The
forecast looks to stay rain free elsewhere across South-Central
Texas through Wednesday night. Increased mugginess is expected
though as the dew points steadily rise through the night. Low
stratus develops with the return of the humidity. This keeps
overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s
entering Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Another active Spring weather day is shaping up for Thursday across
south central Texas. An upper level trough axis approaching from the
west combined with daytime heating, a dryline moving in from the west
and a weak cold front/outflow boundary from the north will bring an
increase in thunderstorm chances. Development over north and central
Texas will begin late morning/early afternoon, with activity across
south central Texas expected to begin over the Hill Country during
the late afternoon hours. Initial development will likely be in the
form of supercells, with storms congealing into a cluster while
moving/developing south and eastward into the I-35 corridor near and
north of San Antonio and into the coastal plains during the evening
hours. Large to very large hail will be the main severe weather
concern given adequate shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and plenty
of instability. Damaging winds are also possible, especially as
activity begins to organize during the evening hours. The Storm
Prediction Center keep areas generally along and north of I-10 in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) south of this area that covers the southern Edwards
Plateau into the coastal plains. The other item of concern on
Thursday will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall. While
areas generally along and north of I-10 could see locally heavy
rainfall, the current round of model guidance seems to favor
locations generally along and north of U.S. Highway 71. Coverage and
intensity of storms should tend to ease by late evening as daytime
heating ends.

An upper level trough axis will linger to our west Thursday night
into Friday morning, then begin to work into north and central Texas
late in the day. We will keep a chance for showers and storms in the
forecast for all areas except the Rio Grande plains. At least a
couple of the models show good potential for another round of showers
and thunderstorms, especially east of I-35, as a cold front moves
southward during the daytime hours. If models remain consistent with
this, we will need to increase rain chances for the above mentioned
areas.

For the upcoming weekend into early next week, mid and upper level
ridging begins to build in from the west and this will result in a
dry forecast along with a steady warming trend. Highs will be in
the 90s with near 105 out west along the Rio Grande. Warm overnight
lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s can also be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday, with the exception of areas of
fog 09Z-14Z across the Coastal Plains, well southeast of SAT. Also, a
wildfire south of DRT, along the international border, is currently
producing a smoke plume traveling north over DRT. This smoke is aloft
several thousand feet and will continue through the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  91  69  84 /   0   0  10  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  91  68  84 /   0   0  10  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  92  70  87 /   0   0  10  60
Burnet Muni Airport            65  89  68  81 /   0   0  10  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  99  76  99 /   0  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  89  67  81 /   0   0  10  80
Hondo Muni Airport             65  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  91  68  86 /   0   0  10  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  90  69  86 /   0   0  10  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  92  71  87 /   0   0  10  50
Stinson Muni Airport           66  93  72  89 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...76