179
FXUS62 KFFC 061741
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
141 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The mid levels continue to remain active across the CWA during the
short term period of the forecast. High pressure remains in control
of the sensible weather at the surface.

500mb analysis shows a shortwave moving through the CWA early this
morning. The system has provided just enough lift for showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning. A secondary shortwave is noted
over northern MS, in the base of a trough. This second shortwave may
skirt the CWA just to the north, but maybe provide just enough lift
for sct shra/tsra this afternoon and evening. With the system
passing further north, the highest pops should be across far N GA
this afternoon/evening. Shortwave ridging should build in for
Tuesday, but isold/sct afternoon/evening storms are expected again.

With the early morning activity, convection may end up getting
somewhat of a later start this afternoon and evening over the
southern two thirds of the CWA. A few strong storms will be
possible, producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Transient shortwave ridging will begin to transition back to west
southwest flow aloft on Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will
likely reach the warmest levels of the week with afternoon ranging
from the mid-to-upper 80s in north Georgia to lower 90s in Middle
Georgia. With a quasi-stationary surface front situated across the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, PoPs Wednesday will be highest
across north Georgia with lower chances farther south.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to a
shortwave moving along the aforementioned frontal zone Wednesday
afternoon. This activity will shift southeastward through Thursday
morning, likely in the form of a gradually decaying convective
complex. As such, PoPs will begin to increase across north
Georgia by Thursday morning, and the potential for any strong to
severe thunderstorms with an attendant damaging wind threat will
need to be monitored as it pushes into our area.

The surface cold front will get a kick into the state through the
day Thursday as the upper trough swings through the Great Lakes
region. Depending on how morning activity pans out and the degree to
which afternoon instability recovers ahead of the front, additional
thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening could pose
a further severe threat. With PWATs in advance of the front
potentially nearing 2", locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

By Thursday night into Friday, the bulk of PoPs should be relegated
into Middle Georgia as the front continues to push southward. A
cooler and drier airmass will gradually filter from north to south
in the wake of the front, setting up a much cooler and less active
weekend forecast. Below normal temperatures are likely to persist
into early next week.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Convective towers with some lightning now in and around metro TAF
sites. Expect this to continue for next several hours - TEMPOs
for TSRA will likely be extended through the evening until
approximately 02Z for isolated threat. Otherwise, VFR through the
period, but one caveat: Tuesday morning has the potential for some
MVFR cigs to creep into the metro TAF sites and MCN/CSG.
Uncertainty is high on this, as evolution of ongoing storms as
well as other factors will potentially mitigate potential. Winds
will be from the SW through the period, 5-10 kts during day going
lighter at night.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence morning cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  87  67  88 /  20  10  20  30
Atlanta         67  86  68  88 /  20  10  30  30
Blairsville     61  80  63  82 /  30  20  60  50
Cartersville    64  86  66  87 /  20  20  40  40
Columbus        67  90  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
Gainesville     65  85  68  86 /  30  10  30  40
Macon           65  89  68  90 /  20   0   0  10
Rome            65  85  66  87 /  20  30  50  40
Peachtree City  65  87  68  89 /  20  10  20  20
Vidalia         68  91  70  92 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Lusk