Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 061444 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 944 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry Canadian high pressure will become reinforced today as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. The dry high pressure will persist into at least early next week before moving off the southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM EST Saturday: Despite some echoes on radar, not seeing any precip reaching the ground. That said, can`t rule out a few sprinkles dropping out of the lower cloud deck along and near the Upper Savannah River valley. Lower clouds diminishing across NC already and will clear through early afternoon over the Upstate and NE GA. Highs look on track. Dew points are all over the place this morning. Expect drying to develop with good mixing and weak downslope flow this afternoon. With the cooler highs expected, RH values may not drop as much over NE GA as they did yesterday, but will be very dry elsewhere. Otherwise, shortwave traversing the Deep South is being absorbed into the longwave system with the parent low off in NE Canada. Surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes under the confluent flow upstream of the trough is ridging toward the Southern Plains, with a finger of a ridge stretching into the Carolinas. Best moisture associated with this shortwave is to our south, with cloud levels dropping through the late overnight hours across the area but especially the Upper Savannah Valley and Upstate. However, continued very, very dry at the surface, so despite some weak radar returns across the TN Valley and N GA, very little if anything reaching the ground. Have continued trend of sprinkles wording in the grids in mainly SW zones, but that said, some WPC superensemble members are wanting to spit out some very light snow along the NC/GA/SC line. Profiles are certainly cold enough aloft, but with the very dry layer at the surface, most likely anything would evaporate/sublimate. Have no plans to add any flurries to the grids, but will monitor obs across N GA as the shortwave dives around. The shortwave will push out of the area during the day today, though with troughiness remaining in place and enough moisture to keep some cloud cover across the area. Guidance has trended cooler with afternoon highs today as a result. Still expect very dry air with strong mixing again today, but slightly better than yesterday. With that and the cooler temperatures, expect that NE GA will not reach fire danger criteria, so no plans to issue an SPS at this time. Should still see some <20% RH in NC, but winds remain too light for any concerns for products. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 am Saturday: Upper heights will rise across the region during the short term, as a deep trough progresses away from the East Coast, and a low amplitude ridge builds west of the Appalachians. This pattern will more or less anchor very dry low level high pressure across the region through the period, with continued fire weather concerns/low afternoon RH being the only item of concern. For more info...see the Fire Wx discussion below. Otherwise, temps will warm through the period under increasing thickness values, with one more day of below-normal temps expected Sunday before above-climo conditions expected to return for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 am Saturday: As a major storm system takes shape across the southwest Conus, low amplitude ridging will develop near the Southeast coast early in the medium range, and generally persist through the period. Dry low level ridging will lose its grip on the area...albeit very gradually, as the low levels won`t truly begin moistening to a significant degree until toward the end of the period. The main story will be the continued warming trend, as temps are expected to be above normal through the period, possibly well above normal by the end of the week. Global models are somewhat at odds regarding the evolution of a frontal zone associated with late week northern stream height falls, with the ECMWF and Canadian solutions bringing the front and attendant light precip into the forecast area Friday, while the GFS holds the boundary well north and west of the area. We are featuring only the slightest of precip chances across western and northern zones on Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period at the TAF sites, with upper clouds continuing this morning and low VFR overspreading especially the Upstate. Cannot rule out some brief sprinkles with the lower cloud deck, but confidence remains too low to include at any of the TAFs. Winds starting off on the N side at TAF time, but exact location of ridge axis may allow Upstate TAFs to veer around to SE before going SW, whereas NC TAFs will vary between NE and NW but generally stay on the N side (NNW at KAVL). Cannot rule out very brief backing at KCLT to WSW around 00z tonight, but this would be temporary so will not be carried in the TAF. Clouds will clear out later today. Outlook: Dry high pressure will remain in control well into next week with VFR conditions prevailing. Confidence Table... 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: && .FIRE WEATHER... Another dry day in store today across the area. However, critical RH values of less than 25% are expected to impact areas generally east of U.S. 25. As such, it doesn`t appear that Fire Danger Statement criteria will be met across northeast Georgia. While very low RH is expected this afternoon across the western Carolinas, especially across the NC foothills, where minimum values of 15-20% are expected, winds will remain below FDS criteria. Thus, no special products will be issued for today, but critical RH will continue to headlined in the planning forecast. Minimum RH should dip to the 15-25% range across the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon. Elevated mountain winds...generally 10-20 mph with higher gusts could warrant at least a Fire Danger Statement across the mountains Sunday afternoon, while another Fire Danger Statement appears likely for northeast GA (where only one of wind/RH criteria are required along with dry fuels). Dewpoints will begin creeping up on developing S/SW flow Monday, but min RH is still expected in the 20-25% range. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...TDP FIRE WEATHER... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.