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238
FXUS62 KGSP 091719
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
119 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions will cool closer to normal late this
week with numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunder-
storms expected each day. Temperatures increase again over the
weekend and early next week as an upper ridge amplifies. Mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1145 AM Wednesday: Mid day water vapor satellite imagery
depicts a northern stream trough over the Great Lakes Region with a
broad Bermuda high nudging into the Coastal Plain. A deep plume of
moisture has been drawn north across the area with PWATs ranging
from 1.6" over the mountains to just over 2" east of I-77. A cumulus
field has begun to develop across the area with the most agitated
cumulus over the mountains where several deeper updrafts have
initiated convection across the higher elevation ridges. Weak height
falls and at least some degree of synoptic forcing from the Great
Lakes wave interacting with a warm and humid airmass will foster
numerous to widespread diurnal thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening hours. The greatest coverage is expected to be across North
Carolina with some activity extending down into the Upstate and
northeast Georgia as well. With time, convection will likely become
loosely organized along composite cold pools with several multicell
clusters and linear segments. The environment will be marginally
supportive for severe weather with 3000-4000 J/kg of surface-based
CAPE, modest DCAPE around 800 J/kg and average vertical totals in
the mid to upper 20s. This returns low-end microburst composite
values in the 3-5 range, which typically corresponds with an average
summer microburst threat and the potential for a handful of severe
thunderstorms. In addition, plentiful moisture and the potential for
a couple slow moving/training storms may result in a couple isolated
instances of flash flooding, especially in any urban areas such as
the Charlotte metro. A quick 1-3" of rain will be possible under any
torrential downpours.

A few storms may linger through the evening, but activity should
dissipate/push out of the area by late evening with a rather quiet
overnight period expected. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out for any
location that experiences heavy rain, especially the mountain
valleys. Another busy convective day is on tap for tomorrow as broad
troughing extends down the spine of the Appalachians as the parent
northern stream wave slowly shifts out of the Great Lakes and into
New England. A continued warm and humid environment will once again
support the development of numerous to widespread diurnal
thunderstorms. The environment will be similar to today with loosely
organized convective clusters along cold pools in a marginal
environment for wet microbursts. Isolated flash flooding will be
possible as well, especially if heavy rainfall occurs over areas
that see heavy rain today.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 12:15 PM EDT Wednesday: Mid level ridging will build over the
area late in the week into Saturday. This will lead to a decrease in
pops from today and Thursday. However due to moisture caught under
the ridge there will continue to be higher than climo pops. The
highest pops will be over the mountains each afternoon and evening.

Highs on Friday will be near climo increasing to a few degrees above
climo on Saturday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 12:25 PM EDT Wednesday: Mid level ridging will remain in place
for Sunday into early next week leading to typical mid July
conditions. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above
normal each day with heat indices around 100-103 in the Piedmont
region. An active mainly diurnally driven convective pattern will
continue with the highest pops each day in the mountains.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: A busy TAF period will continue across the
area with multiple periods of restrictions for a myriad of hazards
expected. First up will be afternoon and evening thunderstorms that
are starting to spread in coverage across the mountains. Numerous to
widespread storms are expected through the remainder of the
afternoon and into this evening. Associated visibility and ceiling
restrictions will accompany these storms. Heading into tonight,
widespread low stratus along with patchy fog appears like a good bet
given plentiful moisture and wet ground from today`s storms. MVFR to
IFR visiblity and ceiling restrictions can be expected with a few
instances of LIFR not out of the question. Morning fog and stratus
will mix out/scatter after sunrise with a brief return to VFR
through the rest of the morning. Another busy day of storms is on
tap again for tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into the
weekend, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...TW