


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --057 FXUS62 KGSP 090110 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will cool closer to normal late this week with numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The heat builds again from late in the weekend into early next week as an upper ridge forms, but daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 730 PM Tuesday: The convection was winding down across the region, what with a large outflow boundary running off to the northwest from the earlier convective complex over the Coastal Plain. The air mass over the northern Upstate and NC Foothills was relatively inhospitable with lower dewpoints yielding only 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Not much of a surprise that the outflow was unproductive. The ongoing convection over the mtns is still expected to weaken and dissipate in the hour or two after sunset. Temps were modulated by the storm outflows, but should revert to the expected trend by the early morning hours. Otherwise...a broad Bermuda ridge extended into the southeast states with a northern stream trough sliding across the Great Lakes region. The pattern changes tomorrow as the previously mentioned trough slides across the Ohio Valley and helps to draw a plume of deeper moisture into the area with PWATs surging to 1.5-2" across the area. Weak height falls overspreading the region ahead of the trough axis in concert with a very warm and moist airmass will foster a much better environment for diurnal convection. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of the area, especially northeast of the Savannah River Valley. This will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, but at the expense of a noticeably more humid airmass. As with any summer thunderstorms, a few strong to isolated severe storms with wet microbursts cannot be ruled out, but meager lapse rates and poor DCAPE will generally preclude a greater threat for organized damaging wind. Storms will also produce very efficient heavy rain with isolated pockets of 1-3" in short amount of time possible. This may lead to several instances of nuisance/minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially along and east of I-77 closer to the main plume of deep moisture. Should this type of rainfall occur over an urban area, such as the Charlotte metro, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Given the isolated nature of locally heavy rainfall and uncertainty as to where it would occur, will hold off on any hydro headlines at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of noon Tue: Cyclonic flow continues over the eastern US through the short term period as deep shortwave moves across Ontario/Quebec. Sufficient shear and forcing is expected to allow diurnally initiated convection to continue through Wednesday evening, so PoPs diminish only slowly at that time. Model consensus suggests an embedded, more compact shortwave will move across the mid-MS Valley Thursday and be invof the southern Appalachians Friday. This feature may be enhanced by diurnal convection upstream of our area, and accordingly there is spread among models as to where it will be located Friday. Regardless the upper pattern should be more favorable for diurnal convection than what we typically see this time of year. Following multiple days of SW flow ahead of the trough axis, PWATs will be above normal (+1.2 to +1.5 SD), generally a bit higher Thu compared to Fri as the main trough axis shifts east a bit. Altogether this results in PoPs in the likely to categorical range each day, once again being higher Thursday. 0-6km shear is shown to increase ahead of the compact shortwave, perhaps exceeding 30 kt Thursday or Thursday night. There appears the possibility of an organized band of convection developing with the wave late Thursday in our western CWA, which might result in a damaging wind threat more widespread than from typical summer pulse storms; that said, moist profiles that day may limit cold pool formation and mitigate that threat to some degree. Despite the deep layer shear, flow will be unidirectional and Corfidi vectors short, so training or backbuilding may occur. Combined with the PWATs, an above-average threat of localized torrential rainfall and flash flooding will persist. Max temps will be near normal and heat index will remain below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 PM Tue: Axis of the Canadian trough will be east of the area Friday night and 500mb heights slowly rise thru the weekend. That results in a gradual warming trend, with daily max temps a few degrees above normal for Sunday and Monday. Heat index accordingly will rise closer to, but not quite reaching, Heat Advisory criteria in parts of our Piedmont southeast of I-85. With respect to convection, while we may lose the enhancing effect of the trough, ensemble CAPE and CIN don`t change much Sat-Mon afternoons compared to Friday. Furthermore most deterministic runs and ensemble members depict another trough in the Midwest circa Sunday, suggesting a front will approach the CWA from the west by Monday. There is however spread as to the advancement of any front east of the Appalachians between the GEFS and EC Ensemble, keeping confidence low. For now, it seems reasonable to expect only a small decline in daily PoPs for this period, still warranting likely values for the mountains each afternoon and a solid chance (30-45%) for the Piedmont. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --At KCLT and elsewhere: Dealing with a few thunderstorms right around KAVL at issuance time, so we will hang onto a TEMPO for TSRA there. Otherwise, the outflow boundary has passed NW across KCLT so they should be quiet, and the Upstate/foothills terminals are not unstable enough to support new storm development. Thus, expect a quiet VFR night with only some debris clouds. Will plan to add some MVFR fog restrictions back in at KAVL in the pre-dawn hours once the ongoing storms dissipate. That brings us to Wednesday, which looks quite a bit more active than today, what with more humidity returning and a more favorable upper level environment for storm development. Daytime heating should push the buoyancy up high enough to allow for numerous storms mainly in the afternoon and evening, though the models indicate a later than usual development time. For that reason, we will go with a strategy that employs a PROB30 first in the mid/late afternoon and a TEMPO in the early evening. There will be some potential for strong thunderstorm outflows, so expect variable flight conditions and strong gusts near storms. Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into the weekend, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...PM/TW SHORT TERM...Wimberley LONG TERM...Wimberley AVIATION...PM