Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 011745 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1245 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure will build over from the north tonight into Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure tracks from west to east across the region. Another low pressure system may affect the Gulf Coast region Friday into Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1234 pm EST: Radar shows a wide band of light rain moving into the mtns from east TN, while the precip east of the Blue Ridge continues to break up. Thus, the higher precip chances shift to the TN border region through mid-Afternoon, and then the lower Piedmont as we get the front to push across the fcst area late in the day. Temps continue to be in a state of flux as precip moves out to the east, we get some thin patches in the cloud cover, and the cold advection is delayed. Some rebound has occurred as a result, but still think the clouds and light precip moving back in from the west will limit the potential for really warm temps this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds will also develop in the cold advection through the day, but with gust values remaining below advisory criteria in the windiest mountain locations where a secondary, reinforcing cold fropa arrives this afternooon. The deeper moisture should settle generally southeast of our Piedmont counties by sundown along with the passing cold front. Any shallow upslope moisture into the western mountains will dry up fairly quickly in the cold air along the spine of the mountains this evening. So, any isolated snow showers or flurries will be short- lived and non-accumulating. 1031 mb surface high pressure will then build over the OH River valley tonight, with chilly thicknesses spilling southward east of the Appalachians.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM EST Monday...A split flow pattern aloft will evolve into a general trof over the period as a srn stream h5 low traverses the FA Tue night into Wed. A broad offshore sfc low will be supported by this upper energy and will bring a decent amt of GOM/Atl moisture to the area beginning Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, a cP sfc high will track off the midAtl coast and provide a weak insitu ridge before breaking down Wed morning. This general pattern will likely support a wintry mix of precip across the NC mtns Tue night, with light snow transitioning to freezing rain, then to rain by 15z Wed. The latest NAM soundings dropped across the NC escarpment show a strong and deep warm nose interacting with sub-freezing sfc temps abv 3.5 Kft to support -fzra, while the GFS is notably warmer with llvl partial thicknesses and indicates more of a sn/ip situation. So, have blended the llvl thermal profiles and used a top down approach for p/types, which generated arnd an inch of snow across the higher peaks with perhaps up to 2 inches over the Smokies. The freezing rain would begin arnd 08z and persist into mid morning with a few hundredths of an inch favoring the nrn BR escarpment. If these ice amts hold over the next few fcst cycles, an advisory may be issued. The atmos dries out during the day Wed as a Canadian high drops south and reinforces a srn stream sfc high building in from the west thru the period. Max temps will remain a little below normal each day, while mins hover arnd or a bit abv normal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 AM EST Monday...The ext range fcst looks to remain quite dry as the models continue to show a suppressed large-scale pattern over the SE CONUS. Thus, little change was made to the already dry fcst. A stg subs zone will slowly cross the area, while a couple cP sfc highs build south and force a favored storm track well south of the FA each day. With winds generally maintained n/ly and weak CAA flow in place beginning Thu night, expect max temps to begin the period Thu abv normal, then cool a little below normal Fri thru Sun. Dewpoints will drop and mix out each afternoon, which could create some fire-wx concerns across NE GA based on RH each afternoon, except Sun when llvl moisture begins to return to the area. Winds shud remain relatively weak, however, and plenty of sunshine will be had making for rather nice days for early March. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected at all terminals through the period. Although radars show a wide band of light precip moving in from east TN, much of this activity will not make it past the mtns. Cannot rule out a brief low cloud restriction, possibly even an MVFR ceiling temporarily at KAVL, think the more westerly flow will discourage it. East of the mtns, we seem to have settled into a mid-level broken/overcast ceiling, and that is expected to continue until after fropa. Wind remains tricky at KCLT. Most likely, the current SW direction will prevail until late afternoon when the front finally pushes in from the west. The 21Z time might be too soon for the shift from WSW to WNW, but as we progress through the evening, the direction is more and more likely to be northerly. The rest of the fcst will be just mid/high clouds and the wind direction veering around the dial. Any low clouds and precip from the next system will not approach until after the end of the TAF period. Outlook: Moisture will surge back into the area Tuesday night, with restrictions and precipitation chances returning through early Wednesday. Another round of drying is expected by late Wednesday, likely continuing through the end of the work week. Confidence Table... 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HG NEAR TERM...HG/PM SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...PM

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