Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
021 FXPQ50 PGUM 280756 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 556 PM ChST Sun Apr 28 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows scattered clouds across the Marianas with isolated showers across Guam and Rota. Altimetry shows combined seas of 4 to 6 feet across the Marianas. && .Discussion... Little change in thought from the previous forecast package. A fairly dry trade-wind regime will persist over the Marianas as a surface high pressure situates to the north. Isolated showers will be possible, especially across the southern Marianas. && .Marine... Gentle to moderate winds will persist through the week. Surf is expected to fall to the 4 to 6 feet for east facing reefs by the middle of the week. Surf could fall below moderate for east facing reefs towards the end of the week. Seas will generally be in the 4 to 6 foot range through the middle of the week before falling to 3 to 5 feet towards the end of the week. && .Eastern Micronesia... Converging and surging trade winds continue to produce showers and a few thunderstorms in several areas from Chuuk State across Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro. These bands of showers are mainly between 4N and 8N, although light trade-wind showers are a little farther north, up to about 10N to 12N. Models indicate this active weather pattern will continue and showers could become numerous and heavy at times this week. Moderate to fresh surface winds will continue across this region, with occasional strong gusts of 25 to 30 kt near heavier showers. Mainly combined seas of 5 to 8 ft are expected, although seas may range to 9 ft or higher at times. && .Western Micronesia... A sharp surface trough is moving slowly across Koror this evening, and rainfall could be heavy at times for locations in the Republic of Palau. Some showers could also move across Yap tonight and early tomorrow, although not so heavy or widespread, and some showers could also arrive at Yap by about Thursday. Also, models indicate a near- equatorial trough with an embedded circulation could develop near or just south of Koror later this week, helping to keep the convection potential elevated for Palau, and parts of southern and eastern Yap State. Moderate to fresh winds and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet at Palau and 4 to 7 feet at Yap are expected to continue. Some strong gusts are likely near heavier showers tonight and Monday. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Williams Micronesia: Simpson