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000
FXUS61 KGYX 262305
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
705 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
West winds and milder temperatures continue through tomorrow as
low pressure departs through the Canadian Maritimes. A weak low
pressure system passes south of New England tomorrow night. A
weak ridge axis passes through Tuesday night, and then a cold
front passes through Wednesday night. High pressure builds in
for the end of the week. The pattern then becomes more unsettled
again late Friday and into the weekend as multiple waves of low
pressure move along a frontal boundary that is likely to stall
close to New England

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
705 PM Update...
Little to report at this hour with updates mainly focused on
boosting clouds through the evening as stratocu continues to
blanket most areas other than southern NH.

Previously...
Consolidated low pressure will continue to slide eastward this
evening with a jet draped across the CWA. This will keep gusty
conditions into the late afternoon hours. Once the sun lowers,
mixing should subside allowing gusts to really drop off. Still
expect a breeze overnight, which along with remaining clouds and
drier air should keep overnight fog at bay.


Will see lows fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s, but should
remaining cloud cover linger (more likely NW of the mountain
ridges), could see locally higher values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper and mid level jet laid out across the Plains, Ohio
Valley, and into southern New England will keep air masses
fairly separate through Monday.

Moist, unstable air remains to the south while cool and dry air
tracks to the north. This will bring a mostly dry Monday with
sfc temperatures enhanced by plenty of sun. There will be some
remaining moisture in the low levels, enough for some cloud
development with this added instability. Regardless, sfc temps
should push 50 degrees across the interior and coast. Warm temps
should also make some headway across southern/central NH and
into the foothills.

The only interruption of an otherwise nice early spring day
across the area will be increasing clouds later in the
afternoon. Low pressure now tracking south of the Great Lakes
will arrive towards the evening hours with rain and snow chances
first across NH and then into southern ME. The low will be
deepening and thus strengthening as it crosses NY, potentially
phasing or accessing some of that southern stream moisture
nosing into southern New England.

The result would be a small deformation area sliding through the
southern half of NH during Monday evening. Precip type will be
tricky, and depend just how strong precip generation is. Because
much of Monday will be warm, sfc temps would support rain.
Aloft, temps should remain in a cool, below freezing profile.
Due to the dry air and low dewpoints in place, wet-bulbing
within a weak deformation band could switch precip to a
rain/snow mix or all snow pretty quick once the sun sets.

Since this trend north is fairly new, have only begun to
introduce lighter QPF to the area. Kept snow ratios low
considering the well above freezing sfc temps, but can`t rule
out light accums at higher elevations like the Monadnocks or
Kearsarge Greenway.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview...

A weak area of low pressure moves away from southern New
England early Tuesday, with an upper level low moving through
during the daytime Tuesday. A weak ridge passes through early
Wednesday, and then a cold front moves through Wednesday night.
High pressure builds in behind this front for Thursday and moves
east of the area early Friday. The pattern then becomes more
unsettled late Friday and into the weekend as multiple waves of
low pressure move along a frontal boundary stalled around New
England.

Details...

Departing low pressure early Tuesday will bring an end to any
light rain or snow, but the upper level low passing through
during the daytime on Tuesday leads to some scattered
instability rain and snow showers. These taper off in the
evening, with a weak ridge moving through Tuesday night and
early Wednesday bringing a dry period, along with some cooler
temperatures at night.

Wednesday starts off dry, but clouds increase late in the day
as a fast moving cold front swings through overnight Wednesday
night. The front is likely to bring some scattered rain and snow
showers, ending as mostly snow showers by daybreak on Thursday
as temperatures fall. High pressure then builds in during the
day on Thursday, with breezy conditions and cool temperates.
The high crests the area early Friday, setting the stage for
radiational cooling Thursday night. However, there is some
question as to how soon clouds will begin to arrive from the
next system after winds ease Thursday night, so ideal conditions
may not develop for cooling. For this reason, the forecast
holds close to the NBM for temps during this timeframe.

After the high moves east on Friday, southwesterly flow will
spread warmer air northward up the Eastern Seaboard. However,
this warmth will likely end it`s northward progress somewhere
near northern New England, with a stalled front developing as a
result. Multiple waves of low pressure then ride eastward along
this front, with the best chance for trying to time them out
resulting in one Friday night and another one late Saturday.
There remains discrepancies amongst the major models on the
placement of this front, and how far southward any cold air
would be available to see snow. Right now the best chance for
snow looks confined to far northern areas, with mainly rain
chances farther south. These will likely fluctuate over the
coming days as a better agreement on the frontal placement
develops, but for the most part that`s where things stand at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight with west gusts dropping off this
evening. HIE likely continues in and out of MVFR, with SHSN
activity decreasing overnight. VFR Monday, with terminals in
southern NH perhaps seeing RA/SN in the late afternoon or
evening along with MVFR ceilings.

Long Term...Some periods of MVFR ceilings and rain/snow showers
continue on Tuesday. Conditions then improve for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. A cold front swings through Wednesday night,
bringing a period of MVFR to IFR ceilings with rain/snow
showers. The most restrictions are expected across northern
terminals. Conditions then improve for Thursday and Friday, and
then conditions deteriorate again Friday night through early
Sunday with an extended period of rain or snow is likely, along
with low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA continues this afternoon for the bays/harbors,
and tonight for the coastal waters. High pressure passes over
the region tonight and Monday. Low pressure again approaches
Monday evening, potentially bringing limited visibility due to
falling rain or snow.

Long Term...Low pressure passes south of the waters early
Tuesday. A weak area of high pressure moves through the waters
Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then a cold front passes
through Wednesday night. SCA conditions with westerly winds are
likely behind the front on Thursday. Conditions then ease
Thursday night and Friday as high pressure moves across the
waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Clair