Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 221355
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
955 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region today as a weak warm
front lifts into western New England. Weak low pressure will
slowly track southeast from western Quebec Monday night and
Tuesday, intensifying along the Maine coast Tuesday night and
then moving into the maritimes Wednesday. This could bring a
period of rain or snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure
will slowly build in from the west late Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 am Update: Adjusted sky cover grids for more sunshine in the
downsloping areas through the afternoon. Otherwise input latest
obs data with no changes need attm.

645 AM Update...
Only minor changes to the forecast for this update based on
temperatures differences. Some mid level clouds have pushed into
the notches of NH and have increased sky cover in this area.

Previous discussion...Clouds along with light winds have
allowed temperatures to stay a bit warmer than they would be
otherwise, however plenty of spots have dropped into the upper
20s as of 07Z. A warm front was located well to our southwest,
with some higher clouds beginning to spill into New England.

Expecting much lighter winds at the surface today as high
pressure attempts to build in. Temperatures warm into the upper
30s to upper 40s north to south with increasing moisture
throughout the column resulting in increasing and lowering cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A kicker impulse will move out of Canada and cause the first
system to eject towards the northeastern U.S. tonight into
Tuesday. This low pressure center will dig farther south
towards the Great Lakes region, keeping us in the warm over-
running section of the system as it organizes. Lowering clouds
and the occasional sprinkle are expected Monday night. Showers
may mix or change to snow in the mountains late. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 20s for the mountains, valleys, and
towards the Moosehead Lakes Region, to warmer readings as you
move southwest under the influence of the warm front aloft.

Rain showers will eventually spread across the region Tuesday
morning as the warm front clips us. Models are depicting a
isallobaric kink developing sometimes Tuesday as secondary
cyclogenesis begins. Not expecting much QPF, however closer to
the triple point over the Gulf of Maine there will be some
higher amounts for portions of southern and coastal sections
when all is said and done. Highs will warm into the 40s north
and central with 50s closer to the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the
long wave pattern through the upcoming weekend and into early
the following week. We`ll maintain some form of upper trough or
closed low across the northeast for much of the upcoming period.
This pattern leaves the door open for repeated shots of cold
air with the anticipation of below average temperatures for the
period. We begin the period with digging shortwave energy
carving out an upper low across the region on Wednesday. At the
surface... developing low pressure tracks across the Gulf of
Maine and into New Brunswick Tuesday night and early Wednesday
drawing colder air into the region. Rain and snow showers across
the higher terrain will transition to all snow as the column
cools...while the coastal plain sees a mix of rain and snow
showers. With the nearly vertically stacked system remaining
nearby late Wednesday and Thursday the cold cyclonic flow and
upslope should continue to produce a few snow showers across the
higher terrain. For Thursday Night into Saturday weak ridging
takes hold with cold but fair weather expected. By Saturday...
digging shortwave energy has carved out another trough across
the eastern CONUS. At the surface...a deepening low will track
northeast along the coast and into New England for Saturday
Night and Sunday. While there could be a wintry mix across the
higher terrain at onset... precipitation should go to all rain
as warmer air wraps into the system from the south and east. As
the surface low lifts north into eastern Canada... cold cyclonic
flow and upslope should produce plenty of clouds along with a
few mountain snow showers to start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through tonight with light westerly winds for
today.

Long Term...

Tue Night - Wed...Areas of MVFR in mtn shsn.

Thu...Sct MVFR psb in mtn -shsn.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas have dropped below SCA levels and
are expected to continue to wane.

Long Term...

Wed Night - Thu...Small Craft conditions psb outside the bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Marine
SHORT TERM...Marine
LONG TERM...Hanes


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.