Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 051931
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
231 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front continues to lifts through New England this evening.
Very warm conditions are then expected into Wednesday before a
cold front brings a cooling trend the second half of the week.
Scattered showers return early next week with a broad trough of
low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A large upper level H5 ridge will continue to build along the
Eastern Seaboard tonight. This will keep precipitation limited
to northern portions of Maine. It will be mild with a well mixed
layer and readings in the in the upper 40s to mid 50s for
overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A broad cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. Ahead
of the system very warm conditions will be situated across Maine
and New Hampshire. H8 temperatures will begin at near +10C to
near +12C. Mixing will allow for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 70s in many southern areas with cooler conditions
along the Midcoast as well as the northern mountains. Have
continued to forecast record highs with the only limitation
being the cloud cover forecast which may dampen the afternoon
highs.

A low level jet will be situated over the region on Wednesday.
Winds will be gusting 50+ kt at H8, especially over northern
areas. Have leaned towards a gusty HRRR solution with winds
strong through the afternoon.

Cold air advection from northwest to southeast Wednesday will
make for a large range of minimum temperatures. Lows will reach
the 30s across the far northwest to the 50s along the south
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview: Surface high pressure will build across the area Thursday
through Saturday behind a departing cold front on Thursday morning,
bringing a return to more seasonably cool temperatures. This area of
high pressure will then move offshore on Sunday and Sunday night as
the next frontal system arrives from the west.

Impacts: Drought conditions are expected to worsen through at least
next week as very little appreciable rainfall is expected.

Forecast Details: The h5 pattern will become zonal on Thursday
behind a departing cold front and dome of high pressure over
the northern Plains. Skies will be partly cloudy with cooler but
still above average high temperatures ranging from the 40s to
upper 60s from north to south. Mainly clear skies are then
likely Thursday night with lows into the lower to middle 30s.
Temperatures aloft will continue to cool on Friday as a s/wv
trough crosses the region. This could result in some scattered
showers over the north/mountains but elsewhere it will remain
dry with highs into the 40s to near 60 from north to south.
Geopotential heights will begin to rise on Friday night with dry
conditions and lows into the 20s and 30s.

Mid-level ridging will continue to build over the area on Saturday
through Sunday with highs into the 40s and 50s and lows into the 20s
and 30s. Our next chance for widespread showers then looks to arrive
Sunday night into Monday as a frontal boundary and s/wv trough
crosses New England.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...For tonight, primarily VFR, but valley fog may
develop for LEB and HIE late. MVFR ceilings and scattered
showers are possible on Wednesday as a cold front approaches,
but this looks to be primarily for LEB and HIE. Winds gusts of
25 to 30 kt are expected during the day Wednesday. Expect LLWS
during the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning.

Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate through the period.
Winds will be predominantly out of the west at 10-20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Have extended the SCAs into Wednesday evening for
the outer waters and have also expanded in time the bays for
late tonight into Wednesday.

Long Term...SCA conditions possible on Friday into the first
half of Saturday with west-northwesterly wind gusts 25-30 kts
and seas of 3-4 ft (highest outside of the bays).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Once again, record warm temperatures remain possible across the
region, this time on Wednesday, November 6th. Here are the
record high temperatures for the date.

Portland record high of 71 set in 2020.
Augusta record high of 72 set in 2022.
Concord record high of 75 set in 2022.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs