Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
387 FXUS61 KGYX 080201 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1001 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the north. A few storms may be strong, and contain gusty winds. Storms creep southward overnight, but a muggy night is still expected for most of the population corridor. The heat winds down on Tuesday, with hot temperatures mainly confined to York county and the Seacoast. A front stalls over the area Tuesday evening, with chances for afternoon showers and storms through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be substantially cooler for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update...Thunderstorm intensity is waning but still getting some lightning strikes from satellite and ground networks. Highest PoP will continue to be along the international border...but with front taking its time to sink south showers or a rumble of thunder will remain possible for most areas thru the night. Otherwise no significant changes. Previous discussion...Hot and humid conditions continue into the early evening hours. Scattered thunderstorms also make southward progress into the mountains late this afternoon and evening as a cold front sags southward tonight. The chance for some gusty thunderstorms continues into the evening hours across northern locations and the higher terrain. Temperatures remain warm in most areas overnight, with upper 60s to low 70s in most locations. Cooler air does start to arrive behind the front however near the Canadian border, with lows dipping into the 50s by morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The progress of the cold front has been slower compared to earlier thinking, and the forecast for tomorrow reflects this trend. The slower progress of the front results in one more day of heat and humidity across southeast New Hampshire, with heat indices back into the mid to upper 90s again on Tuesday. In these areas, a heat advisory has been issued for tomorrow as well. A sizable temperature gradient is expected tomorrow, as areas near the Canadian border struggle to reach 70 degrees, while southern NH warms to near 90. In between, the cold front makes gradually southward progress through the daytime. After a quick warm up through the morning, temps likely fall during the afternoon with the passage of the front across central Maine and New Hampshire, as well as southwest Maine. The northern edge of the heat advisory is where temperatures are expected to cool midday before reaching advisory criteria, but any further slowdown in the front`s progress would result in higher temperatures expanding further north. Additionally, increasing tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Chantal reach into southern and coastal areas ahead of the front late tonight and tomorrow. As the front moves through, scattered showers and thunderstorms likely develop by the early afternoon hours. With deep tropical moisture, very heavy downpours and high rainfall rates are likely with these storms. With the slow movement of the front, the threat for localized flash flooding does exist, with the greatest chance across southwest Maine and southeast New Hampshire. The front moves through by the late evening hours, with storms dissipating through the evening. The front slows across southern New England overnight. Moisture continues to ride along the front Tuesday night, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible again after midnight across southern New Hampshire. These will also have to be monitored for the flash flooding potential, especially if storms move through the same areas on Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The second half of the week and next weekend will feature cooler temperatures and unsettled weather. High temperatures look to be in the 70s Wednesday through Friday as ensemble guidance suggests a weak mid-level trough moves in from the west. Some weak forcing and daytime destabilization may allow for some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to form on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday afternoons. Thunderstorm chances look to be the highest on Thursday, especially in the CT River Valley and locations north of the mountains. The 500mb trough will slowly loosen over the weekend, with some warmer high temperatures on tap to start next week. Saturday and Sunday, highs look to be near 80F most places, with lower 80s early next week. Next weekend looks mostly dry, though a shower or two can`t be ruled out. More unsettled weather is possible to start off next week. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR prevails into the evening, but marine fog and stratus likely moves into coastal terminals with MVFR to IFR conditions late this evening and overnight. This likely persists into mid-morning on Tuesday before burning off, with MVFR ceilings lingering through most of the day. Valley fog likely develops at LEB and HIE late tonight, before improving back to MVFR and VFR by mid morning. Scattered showers and storms are possible at all terminals tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms are possible again late Tuesday night at PSM, CON, and MHT. Valley fog is likely again Tuesday night. Long Term...Generally VFR is expected through most of the extended, though scattered showers and thunderstorms in the second half of the week could allow for some brief restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions subside this evening as a cold front sags south across the waters. Areas of fog continue tonight and into the day on Tuesday. Conditions remain below SCA levels through tomorrow night on the north side of the front. Long Term...2-4ft seas are expected through the second half of the week, with easterly winds at 5-12kts expected. No SCA issuance expected for the time period. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ010- 012>014. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Palmer